Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[davymead]

People’s perception of China being the giver of never ending cheap goods need to read up on the problems facing their own economy, and its future.

 

[Darrell]

People’s perception of China being the giver of never ending cheap goods need to read up on the problems facing their own economy, and its future.

Tell us more. I’m intrigued.

 

[markjay]

EVs are inherently cheaper to make and to maintain than ICE cars.

An electric motor cost to make only a fraction of what a petrol or diesel engine - plus automatic transmission - cost, and that's even before considering the cost of emissions control systems.

The two main hurdles at current are (a) recouping the R&D costs - ICE technology was developed over the past 150 years, EVs only over the past 10 years. The massive amount of manhour than went into inventing and designing new tech and into software development cost a tidy sum. It will be a while before EVs are sold in large enough numbers for the cost to come down (and it will, as was the case with PCd, laptops, flat screen TVs, etc etc). The other is (b) the cost of batteries, in part due to limited availability of some raw materials. Battery tech will need to continue evolving in order to bring the price down.

I've posted before that the Chinese are selling a brand new EV truck for $2,000 USD, and are truning a profit. Of course it's not road legal in any Western country, and in fact the cost will be double that once you some options that we consider a basic minimum. But ask yourself this: can any manufacturer sell a brand new ICE car, complete with engine and transmission, for $2,000 and still turn a profit? Not likely.

When EVs become cheaper, they'll end up being cheaper that cars with engines and transmissions. But it may take a while... it took 20 years for the Motorola 'brick' of the early eighties to morph into an affordable mobile phone, as MikeInWimbeldon pointed out.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I don’t see a collapse in the price of ICE vehicles. In fact I think the prices of a used vehicle be it petrol or diesel are unprecedented, certainly in the time I’ve been involved.

C Class prices more than halved over five years, and dealers struggling to clear ICE stock after the September registrations.

It's going to be a hard winter now that the factories are producing new cars without delay, and now that borrowing money is seriously expensive, compared to just two years ago.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

EVs are inherently cheaper to make and to maintain than ICE cars.

You need to acknowledge that the pace of acceleration is going to be insane.

As with laptops, iPhones and iPads, people are going to be demanding the "new stuff" as soon as it arrives.

That will soften EV and ICE resale prices as the years click by.

And we simply don't know who's going to win this race.

 

[Pontoneer]

Mobile phones weren't cheap to own when I bought my first few for our directors at work. £2500 for the unit and bills getting close to a grand a month. in 1984 - pre-Vodafone. Serious money: not for the majority.

Then when the brick phone came out in 1987 they were still well over a grand, and the bills were still £500+ a month. A lot of money in 1987. Easily the equivalent of £3-4k today

When I bought my first internet enabled phone in 2000, it certainly wasn't any kind of thing that you'd let your mum use, even if she could afford it.

We know that the value of diesel and petrol engined cars has collapsed. What makes you think that the value of used EV's will be any different?

As for the new prices, we're already looking at new MG estates costing £25k. Within six years the used ones will be £6k, with fuel at 4p a mile.

Who wouldn't want a six year old MG estate with those running costs?

You're right, EV's are revolutionary, cheap to own, and will seldom go wrong, and there will be a plethora of cheap options on offer to repair and renew, ten or twenty years down the line.

We've only got 850,000 BEV's in the UK today. Of course the majority can't have one yet. They're busy driving 34 million ICE vehicles. It'll be two decades before "the majority" have the opportunity of owning an EV. (We only sell 1.6 million cars at the moment.)

My first mobile phone was a Motorola MR1 , bought out of Comet for £31 sometime in the late eighties/early nineties ; I fancied a spare battery and charger , but it was actually cheaper to just buy another complete phone than the accessories on their own - so I had two batteries and two desktop chargers , one for home and one for work . None of that included airtime , but I had already looked at that and went with Orange , who sere the only provider to offer per second billing , and not complete minutes ; I signed up to their Talk 15 plan , which gave me 15 minutes of airtime for £15 per month . Since the phone was only used for important messages that was enough ; I even worked out pretty quickly that if I phoned home , or to the office , just let it ring a couple of times then hung up before it was answered , they would call me back and it cost me nothing .

Yes , the call plans went up , more inclusive minutes etc ; moved on from Motorola to Nokia , then to Handspring/Palm and finally to Apple ( only actually paid money for the very first iPhone as I worked out that as long as I didn't need the latest one , I could wait until a model had been replaced and then sign on the line for another year or 18 months to get a new handset at no additional charge . My monthly bills went up from £15/month to a maximum of £30 odds at the peak , but have since come back down and I'm currently paying around £17/month for unlimited everything on my iPhone 7 .

I also got off the merry go round of constant upgrades at that point since everyone in my family by then had a handset , all provided courtesy of me , and I'm now SIM only . The iPhone 7 is not especially reliable ; I've replaced the battery once and am waiting for I think the fourth screen to come in the mail , I can fit it is 5 minutes having done so many by now . I think the iPhone 4/5 series were the best made and most reliable ; but my son won't give me my old iPhone 5 back ; he and all his chums at school reckon that is the best and most indestructible iPhone .

I certainly wouldn't pay £25K for an MG , ( i have cameras that cost more than that ) unless it was a classic model , nor would I pay even £6K for a car I'd never wish to own in the first place .

I was looking for a car last year , and decided I wanted another S124 , this is my fifth one , so I started looking around , with no particular budget in mind . I eventually found what I reckoned to be just about the nicest one in the country , with an asking price of £4K , but I would have paid more if I'd had to , and travelled 500 miles to collect it - a year on , I'm still delighted with it ; it is a car that will run and run and if anything needs done I can get the spanners out and fix it myself ; so far the only issues have been a non working sunroof , which I know to be a broken lift arm , and a damaged back bumper which was my own fault after I reversed into a bollard in Tesco's car park ( still watching for a mint pre-facelift bumper insert to replace the fragile plastic painted one ; already have a NOS front insert so I can change both at once ) . I'm confident I can keep this car running well beyond 2030 , so the hype is irrelevant to me at least .

 

[Pontoneer]

You need to acknowledge that the pace of acceleration is going to be insane.

As with laptops, iPhones and iPads, people are going to be demanding the "new stuff" as soon as it arrives.

That will soften EV and ICE resale prices as the years click by.

And we simply don't know who's going to win this race.

My MacBook Pro is a Unibody 17" model from 2009 ; my Powerbook G4 is much older , both still work fine ; similarly my 8 core mac Pro 5,1 is also from 2009 and I have two 4 core machines about a year older , and a Powermac G5 which is from around 2004 , also have an iPad 1 and an iPad mini2 , all still working fine and all still do everything I need including photography and HD video ; similarly , my Gyrodec still spins my records silently and efficiently after buying new almost 30 years ago ; my Quad Electronics and Electrostatic Loudspeakers ( just serviced them earlier this year ; panels all good for another 25 years ) all work perfectly ; don't really shoot film anymore ( but still could ) as I went digital in the early noughties , and upgraded as the technology matured , but never ever rushed to have the latest things .

I am certainly not of the mindset that I need to always have "new stuff" when what I have still meets my needs .

However , I don't at all mind other people taking depreciation hits so that I can benefit later on .

 

[Pontoneer]

I did mention normal cars - not prestige models.
Mercedes generally last longer than normal cars - how many old Ford’s, Peugeots, Renaults, Vauxhalls are still running after 150,000 miles?

You actually said not high performance or rare specials , nothing about prestige . I just think of Mercedes as normal , if sturdy and safe , family cars ; in the family we have had an Audi 100GL ( 1976 ) past the quarter million mark , and numerous VWs as well up to those and higher mileages ; there have been plenty of stories of million mile Passats , used as taxis .

 

[Pontoneer]

The solar panel and battery wall usage is mainly in the countries that enjoy more sunshine. Look at the 99% of the world that lives outside the UK for examples of solar and wind power creation and storage.

While you’re doing that, note that the UK doesn’t have a lot of oil under its surface.

If you want to see solar being used in the UK look at folks who are using the panels on top of their roofs

No , but Scotland does have good reserves under OUR parts of the sea .

 

[zipdip]

Well ordinary drivers are not buying EV's companies are and people who run small busineses they run the EV's for nothing,but even most of them will lease because as there is no market for second hand EV's the depreciation is mind boggling,and to cap it all the largest company who lease EV's has gone to the wall with 7000 ev's on their books talk about over hang on the market,sorry I cannot subscribe to this nonsence it too stupid for words.

 

[markjay]

My first mobile phone was a Motorola MR1 , bought out of Comet for £31 sometime in the late eighties/early nineties ; I fancied a spare battery and charger , but it was actually cheaper to just buy another complete phone than the accessories on their own - so I had two batteries and two desktop chargers , one for home and one for work . None of that included airtime , but I had already looked at that and went with Orange , who sere the only provider to offer per second billing , and not complete minutes ; I signed up to their Talk 15 plan , which gave me 15 minutes of airtime for £15 per month . Since the phone was only used for important messages that was enough ; I even worked out pretty quickly that if I phoned home , or to the office , just let it ring a couple of times then hung up before it was answered , they would call me back and it cost me nothing ....

....I remember those days, mobile phones were unaffordable and the only way to get one was via a 12 or 18 months contract (with or without air time). You basically paid in instalments because they were too expensive for people to buy outright. I was tempted by a BT Mobile offer of just £19.95 on an 18 month contract, but ended up getting a Motorla Flip (I think it was called the Alpha) as a gift - they were a novelty at the time.

 

[grober]

Before buying an EV any prospective owner should carefully define what they're going to use it for. They have advantages and disadvantages like all cars Many EV owners are accused of virtue signaling- this may be true for some but probably not the majority of EV owners. Most have carefully analysed why an EV may be an advantage for their particular circumstance. Maybe taxation benefits, permission to access certain major city areas without extra charges, reasons of economy, inherent drivetrain simplicity and lower service costs. But the one major factor to bear in mind is that EV development is still a very rapidly changing technology so desirable ownership duration should be short and covered by manufacturer warranty. This would point towards leasing a new vehicle for 3 years as the sensible path to EV ownership at present. Motor vehicle manufacturers have worked hard to market their products as lifestyle statements and at present for historic reasons [been around longer] these are ICE vehicles. As the developed world moves towards EV It's perhaps time to recalibrate this image somewhat. After all EV's are not much more complex than a large washing machine with a battery attached and their Image and price should perhaps reflect this more than it does

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

I would say there is plenty of evidence that successive euro emissions standards have made ICE cars less and less reliable due to the obsession with chasing arbitary targets. All precursors to the arrival of the environmental saviour. The majority Chinese made EV.

So if raising the bar in emissions standards were part of a bigger plan, what was in it for the European legislators and regulators, a back hander from the Chinese Government?

 

[markjay]

So if raising the bar in emissions standards were part of a bigger plan, what was in it for the European legislators and regulators, a back hander from the Chinese Government?

If you are a Conspiracy Theorists, then you will never accept that a government could possibly be well meaning - instead, any policy officially said to better people's lives is bound to be a cynical ploy by the wealthy capitalists who pull the strings

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I was looking for a car last year , and decided I wanted another S124 , this is my fifth one , so I started looking around , with no particular budget in mind . I eventually found what I reckoned to be just about the nicest one in the country , with an asking price of £4K , but I would have paid more if I'd had to , and travelled 500 miles to collect it - a year on ,

Cripes, how did you get an S124 for £4k? They must be worth for way more than that now. Rocketship mileage?

My finance director had a forest green facelift TE300 back in in 1990/1 and I still think they were peak E class estate. Battleship spec. Fantastic quality.

 

[ChipChop]

So if raising the bar in emissions standards were part of a bigger plan, what was in it for the European legislators and regulators, a back hander from the Chinese Government?

I did not say anything about a bigger plan.

My point was successive EU emission standards have strangled ICE engines and made them in many ways a shadow of what they could have been. Carbon neutral bio fuels for example could have been chosen as the default fuel of choice for diesel engines instead of fossil fuels.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

I did not say anything about a bigger plan.

You didn't but the way I interpreted your words was that there was some kind intention behind the progressive raising of bar on euro emissions requirements which would lead to Chinese EVs becoming prevalent.

All precursors to the arrival of the environmental saviour. The majority Chinese made EV.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Before buying an EV any prospective owner should carefully define what they're going to use it for. They have advantages and disadvantages like all cars Many EV owners are accused of virtue signaling- this may be true for some but probably not the majority of EV owners. Most have carefully analysed why an EV may be an advantage for their particular circumstance. Maybe taxation benefits, permission to access certain major city areas without extra charges, reasons of economy, inherent drivetrain simplicity and lower service costs. But the one major factor to bear in mind is that EV development is still a very rapidly changing technology so desirable ownership duration should be short and covered by manufacturer warranty. This would point towards leasing a new vehicle for 3 years as the sensible path to EV ownership at present. Motor vehicle manufacturers have worked hard to market their products as lifestyle statements and at present for historic reasons [been around longer] these are ICE vehicles. As the developed world moves towards EV It's perhaps time to recalibrate this image somewhat. After all EV's are not much more complex than a large washing machine with a battery attached and their Image and price should perhaps reflect this more than it does

Requirement definition before selection? It'll never catch on.

Leasing as a sensible path? Because you're paying an obscene amount to a finance provider to take on the ownership & depreciation risk? The idea being that the leasing provider is a benevolent soul seeking only to make life simple for the client ? Dubious.

What makes you think that Britain's biggest selling vehicles are lifestyle purchases? Aren't they really bought more or less as consumer products, just like any other washing machine?

 

[ChipChop]

You didn't but the way I interpreted your words was that there was some kind intention behind the progressive raising of bar on euro emissions requirements which would lead to Chinese EVs becoming prevalent.

Euro 1 emissions was way back in 1992 over 30 years ago. The EU were not too keen on bookeeping back then so i hear. Still aren't apparently. Billions unaccounted for, what a bunch of lads eh?

As an aside my 1991 w201 190 diesel had a catalytic converter fitted when i bought it in 2010 so Mercedes as ever were ahead of the game even with their diesels. I did of course gut it when i fitted a stainless center and back box.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Well ordinary drivers are not buying EV's companies are and people who run small busineses they run the EV's for nothing,but even most of them will lease because as there is no market for second hand EV's the depreciation is mind boggling

Do let me know where I can pick up a three year old Tesla 3 on reasonable mileage but with mind boggling depreciation.
I have £10k ready and waiting. (Preference for a blue one)

Do "ordinary drivers" buy brand new C, E and S class? Aren't they mainly sold to companies and to people via PCP's?

(I can't think of an E or S that I've ever owned that had been bought new privately by a private owner, apart from my E55 which had been bought new by a surgeon back in 1998.)