Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[ChipChop]

Tesla CEO Elon Musk also once tweeted that the battery pack in the Model 3 and Model Y was designed to last 1,500 charging cycles, which translates to about 300,000 miles for Standard Range models and about 500,000 miles for Long Range versions.

On January 6, 2022, a Tesla Model S P85 (the oldest performance version) reached an impressive mileage milestone of 932,256 miles....1.5m km
It had a battery replaced under warranty at about 150,000 miles. The motors seem to be the weak point if doing ultra high miles rather than the battery. Three units were replaced by 680,000 km and the fourth one was running up to 1,000,000 km......no info after that.

The car is used in Germany by Hansjörg von Gemmingen - Hornberg, who is known in the EV world for setting the highest mileage records in Tesla cars.

Musk and his tweets eh.

More Tesla folklore. Other articles seem to think the German EV advocate fella has had his model S's battery pack replaced at least twice and has racked up 8 replacement electric motors since 2014. Is that a good record taking into consideration the cost of replacing these high value components?

Surprised he could factor all that workshop and EV charge time into his busy schedule of driving around 400 miles a day 5 days a week ,week in week out, for the last decade.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Indeed. There is no typical EV battery life expectancy. It is pot luck. The secondhand buyer down the line is taking a gamble on a high value component. Explains the high depreciation levels seen on many EV's.

Also explains the number of EV's written off for superficial damage. Copart is full of them. Mileage unknown.

Not at all. There is no typical ICE or EV life expectancy. The buyer of a Mercedes ICE is taking a gamble on a high value ICE power delivery system: engine, gearbox, brakes, electronics, the lot. Examples can be found all over this website. It’s a constant refrain: and iCE can be rubbish at 80k or good for 300k. It all depends on how it’s been used and maintained.

You have no evidence to support your gut feeling that new tech must be dangerous and fragile

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Seem unlikely any of the folks with solar panels on their roofs have a £10,000+ Tesla powerwall battery storage unit sitting in their lofts though.

I have no idea of the point you’re trying to make.

There are endless wretched techy stories out there about power walls being used to store power before transferring it to the vehicle.

Harry’s garage was an early convert but the far greater volume is folks in the States.

The UK energy industry is particularly keen that both cars and battery walls could download power off peak, and transfer it back to the Grid at when power is in demand and expensive

It’s called V2G:

Vehicle-to-grid - Wikipedia

Where people have multiple EV’s which are rarely used, the expectation is that they would simply suck power down off peak and return at peak, making them income generators, using what is effectively their mobile power wall.

If you think about 95% of the time a car is just parked, waiting to be used. It’s a huge arbitrage opportunity.

 

[markjay]

Musk and his tweets eh.

More Tesla folklore. Other articles seem to think the German EV advocate fella has had his model S's battery pack replaced at least twice and has racked up 8 replacement electric motors since 2014. Is that a good record taking into consideration the cost of replacing these high value components?

Surprised he could factor all that workshop and EV charge time into his busy schedule of driving around 400 miles a day 5 days a week ,week in week out, for the last decade.

And, of course, for the average car buyer, it is absolutely crucial to know if the battery pack was replaced just one time, or twice, in a million miles of driving......... right?

EV-bashing at its best, more likely.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

And exactly why the vast majority of the public won’t buy a second hand EV.

Typo: you meant to write AMG.

The majority of the public will buy a used EV when the used price is right, when the nonsense about reliability and usage is disproved, and when they realise that they can fuel it at 4p a mile.

Cough: notice how I didn’t mention the EU fining car companies literally billions of Euros so they cannot sell ICE in the future….

 

[ChipChop]

Not at all. There is no typical ICE or EV life expectancy. The buyer of a Mercedes ICE is taking a gamble on a high value ICE power delivery system: engine, gearbox, brakes, electronics, the lot. Examples can be found all over this website. It’s a constant refrain: and iCE can be rubbish at 80k or good for 300k. It all depends on how it’s been used and maintained.

You have no evidence to support your gut feeling that new tech must be dangerous and fragile

I would say there is plenty of evidence that successive euro emissions standards have made ICE cars less and less reliable due to the obsession with chasing arbitary targets. All precursors to the arrival of the environmental saviour. The majority Chinese made EV.

 

[ChipChop]

And, of course, for the average car buyer, it is absolutely crucial to know if the battery pack was replaced just one time, or twice, in a million miles of driving......... right?

EV-bashing at its best, more likely.

The cost of replacing a battery pack outside of the warranty period is the number one consideration for the cash second hand buyer. Replacing a battery 2 or more time in the real world would never happen.

 

[markjay]

The cost of replacing a battery pack outside of the warranty period is the number one consideration for the cash second hand buyer. Replacing a battery 2 or more time in the real world would never happen.

That's very important, i.e. in the event that you end up driving a million miles, you never know. This is why EVs will never catch on.... and so it goes.

 

[Bellow]

I have no idea of the point you’re trying to make.

There are endless wretched techy stories out there about power walls being used to store power before transferring it to the vehicle.

Harry’s garage was an early convert but the far greater volume is folks in the States.

The UK energy industry is particularly keen that both cars and battery walls could download power off peak, and transfer it back to the Grid at when power is in demand and expensive

It’s called V2G:

Vehicle-to-grid - Wikipedia

Where people have multiple EV’s which are rarely used, the expectation is that they would simply suck power down off peak and return at peak, making them income generators, using what is effectively their mobile power wall.

If you think about 95% of the time a car is just parked, waiting to be used. It’s a huge arbitrage opportunity.

Each and every time that is done, another discharge/charge cycle occurs eating into the finite number of discharge/charge cycles that is the battery's lifespan. Perhaps the public are already aware of this.

The majority of the public will buy a used EV when the used price is right, when the nonsense about reliability and usage is disproved, and when they realise that they can fuel it at 4p a mile.

Jeez, you spent most of last fortnight telling us EV depreciation is horrendous. How cheap do they have to be to be bought used?

 

[ChipChop]

That's very important, i.e. in the event that you end up driving a million miles, you never know. This is why EVs have not caught on.... and so it goes.

FTFY.

See EV sales figures.

 

[davymead]

Typo: you meant to write AMG.

The majority of the public will buy a used EV when the used price is right, when the nonsense about reliability and usage is disproved, and when they realise that they can fuel it at 4p a mile.

Cough: notice how I didn’t mention the EU fining car companies literally billions of Euros so they cannot sell ICE in the future….

Sorry Mike couldn’t disagree more.
In my experience, it doesn’t matter how cheap they become, the majority will not buy a used EV. Too many unknowns.
Fascinating to sit on the fence and watch, as I am.

 

[markjay]

Sorry Mike couldn’t disagree more.
In my experience, it doesn’t matter how cheap they become, the majority will not buy a used EV. Too many unknowns.
Fascinating to sit on the fence and watch, as I am.

Have a browse on this forum to get an idea of the multitude of unexpected unknowns that buyers of second hand ICE cars face, and yet poeple do buy them... go figure.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I would say there is plenty of evidence that successive euro emissions standards have made ICE cars less and less reliable due to the obsession with chasing arbitary targets. All precursors to the arrival of the environmental saviour. The majority Chinese made EV.

That's funny. And examples of ICE vehicles becoming less reliable are?

We have 850,000 BEV's on the road in the UK at the moment. How many of that 850,000 do you think were made in China?

Remind us, that Iphone, Ipad, or laptop that you're using now. Where did you get that made, because that country make it more cheaply and more reliable than the Nokia or Sony that you used to use?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Sorry Mike couldn’t disagree more.
In my experience, it doesn’t matter how cheap they become, the majority will not buy a used EV. Too many unknowns.
Fascinating to sit on the fence and watch, as I am.

Will they be building their ICE cars in their sheds? (Because your elected politicians are banning the manufacture and sale of new ICE.)

Bear in mind that less than 3% of modern vehicles are BEVs. It will take decades before they work their way through the system.

Thirty years ago it was unthinkable that my parents would have bought a mobile phone, let alone a smartphone. They still had a landline in the hall. Progress is fast. (Another example: my mother didn't learn to drive a car. "Why would you? Let alone "what couple would ever need two cars?"

Here's that video again of what roads used to look like. People change. When this was made there were just five million cars on the road. Within a decade that doubled. Now it's seven times as many. Things change.

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[davymead]

Have a browse on this forum to get an idea of the multitude of unexpected unknowns that buyers of second hand ICE cars face, and yet poeple do buy them... go figure.

Don’t need to go figure. Numbers speak for themselves.

 

[markjay]

Don’t need to go figure. Numbers speak for themselves.

So you have the statistics showing how many people face unexpected problems when buying a second hand car? Do share.

 

[davymead]

Will they be building their ICE cars in their sheds? (Because your elected politicians are banning the manufacture and sale of new ICE.)

Bear in mind that less than 3% of modern vehicles are BEVs. It will take decades before they work their way through the system.

Thirty years ago it was unthinkable that my parents would have bought a mobile phone, let alone a smartphone. They still had a landline in the hall. Progress is fast. (Another example: my mother didn't learn to drive a car. "Why would you? Let alone "what couple would ever need two cars?"

Here's that video again of what roads used to look like. People change. When this was made there were just five million cars on the road. Within a decade that doubled. Now it's seven times as many. Things change.

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Accept third party cookies

Mobile phones are revolutionary, and they are relatively cheap to own and very seldom go wrong and if they do there’s a plethora of cheap options on offer for repair or renewal. That’s why they sell by the billion. EV’s are a poor comparison.
Change is inevitable, but cost obviously is crucial to sales, and as we all know it only about money.
Both new and inevitably second hand sales are falling because the majority of people can’t afford the expense.

 

[davymead]

So you have the statistics showing how many people face unexpected problems when buying a second hand car? Do share.

I don’t need to explain why people aren’t buying new or used EV’s. They’re not. Go figure.

 

[ChipChop]

That's funny. And examples of ICE vehicles becoming less reliable are?

We have 850,000 BEV's on the road in the UK at the moment. How many of that 850,000 do you think were made in China?

Remind us, that Iphone, Ipad, or laptop that you're using now. Where did you get that made, because that country make it more cheaply and more reliable than the Nokia or Sony that you used to use?

Lets see with diesels we have the introduction of the EGR around the euro 3 standard. Then we have the DPF thanks to the euro 4 or 5 standard and ad blue or urea injection for the euro 6 standard. Would you say these additions caused any reliability issues for motorists?

For petrol ICE engines you have direct injection and latterly petrol particulate filters as well. Not to mention the trend towards highly tuned small capacity petrol engines now being used on some very large vehicles. See the latest Volvo SUV's. As above. Longevity seemingly an afterthought.

Out of the 850,000 EV's in the UK i would imagine the vast majority have battery packs manufactured in China. Only a small proportion of Tesla batteries are made in the USA/ Mexico.

As for consuming 'tech' it is quite possible to go without the latest must have junk.

 

[markjay]

I don’t need to explain why people aren’t buying new or used EV’s. They’re not. Go figure.

But you did:

Sorry Mike couldn’t disagree more.
In my experience, it doesn’t matter how cheap they become, the majority will not buy a used EV. Too many unknowns.
Fascinating to sit on the fence and watch, as I am.