Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[markjay]

Lets see with diesels we have the introduction of the EGR around the euro 3 standard. Then we have the DPF thanks to the euro 4 or 5 standard and ad blue or urea injection for the euro 6 standard. Would you say these additions caused any reliability issues for motorists?

For petrol ICE engines you have direct injection and latterly petrol DPF's as well. Not to mention the trend towards highly tuned small capacity petrol engines now being used on some very large vehicles. See the latest Volvo SUV's. As above. Longevity seemingly an afterthought.

Out of the 850,000 EV's in the UK i would imagine the vast majority have battery packs manufactured in China. Only a small proportion of Tesla batteries are made in the USA/ Mexico.

As for consuming 'tech' it is quite possible to go without the latest must have junk.

What exactly is the issue with stuff made in China?

They are the world's largest manufacturer, it's unavoidable that we'll consume Chinese made goods:

Top 10 manufacturing countries in the world .

The UK in no. 9 on this list, BTW.

 

[ChipChop]

What exactly is the issue with stuff made in China?

Sounds like a great idea for a thread. "What exactly is the issue with stuff made in China?"

I can think of many issues that concern me. You could say the final straw is handing China the global car industry on a plate thanks to their dominance in EV battery manufacturing.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Only a small proportion of Tesla batteries are made in the USA/ Mexico.

......and in those US/Mexican Tesla batteries over 40% of the material is sourced from?.....you guessed it....the PRC!

 

[davymead]

OK Mark,
Price, Range anxiety, Battery longevity, Charging facilities, Service/repair/cost options and availability, Insurance costs, Ignorance/fear of technology and therefore understanding relative ‘costs to own‘ involved.
Inexorably coupled to the fact that a seldom listened to amount of people drive cars worth less than £4K, because guess what, that’s all they can afford.
That’s in my humble experience over the past few years fronting a large and very busy Independent.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Mobile phones are revolutionary, and they are relatively cheap to own and very seldom go wrong and if they do there’s a plethora of cheap options on offer for repair or renewal. That’s why they sell by the billion. EV’s are a poor comparison.
Change is inevitable, but cost obviously is crucial to sales, and as we all know it only about money.
Both new and inevitably second hand sales are falling because the majority of people can’t afford the expense.

Mobile phones weren't cheap to own when I bought my first few for our directors at work. £2500 for the unit and bills getting close to a grand a month. in 1984 - pre-Vodafone. Serious money: not for the majority.

Then when the brick phone came out in 1987 they were still well over a grand, and the bills were still £500+ a month. A lot of money in 1987. Easily the equivalent of £3-4k today

When I bought my first internet enabled phone in 2000, it certainly wasn't any kind of thing that you'd let your mum use, even if she could afford it.

We know that the value of diesel and petrol engined cars has collapsed. What makes you think that the value of used EV's will be any different?

As for the new prices, we're already looking at new MG estates costing £25k. Within six years the used ones will be £6k, with fuel at 4p a mile.

Who wouldn't want a six year old MG estate with those running costs?

You're right, EV's are revolutionary, cheap to own, and will seldom go wrong, and there will be a plethora of cheap options on offer to repair and renew, ten or twenty years down the line.

We've only got 850,000 BEV's in the UK today. Of course the majority can't have one yet. They're busy driving 34 million ICE vehicles. It'll be two decades before "the majority" have the opportunity of owning an EV. (We only sell 1.6 million cars at the moment.)

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I don’t need to explain why people aren’t buying new or used EV’s. They’re not. Go figure.

What you mean is that they're not buying them at the prices the manufacturers originally sold them for.

The five year old e-Golf is sold for £15k, the five year old i3, more like £18k.

Now talk us through the depreciation on five year old diesels and petrol.

The car manufacturers have had unprecedented profits these last three years thanks to covid, supply chain, and government subsidy. Those days are over for them. It's time for them to bring those prices down.

It's embarrassing £20k lost on a basic Merc saloon in just five years. Who would want to lose £20k on an old fashioned ICE car?

 

[markjay]

Sounds like a great idea for a thread. "What exactly is the issue with stuff made in China?"

I can think of many issues that concern me. You could say the final straw is handing China the global car industry on a plate thanks to their dominance in EV battery manufacturing.

But what's the alternative?

You can cut minimum wages in the UK, cancel the statutory 28 annual paid holiday days allowance, remove the EU cap of 45 hours per week, cancel workplace pensions, reduce the full time employment age to 13, outflow the unions and make it illegal to go on strike, and then we can possibly make stuff over here that won't cost consumers more than the Chinese-made stuff (queue workers rioting).

Or, you could put high tarrifs on Chinese imports that will protect British industry and cause price increases to goods sold in the UK, then convince consumers that they should accept a decline in their standard of living in favour of keeping manufacturing in the UK (good luck with that one).

Or, you could just declare austerity and tell consumers to consume less (we've tried that recently, it wasn't a hit).

I am interested to hear what route you suggest we take.

Of course, we could simply agree that globalisation is the best way forward, we'll do what we're good at and continue to innovate and invent stuff in our universities and innovation centres, while leaving the manufacturing to the Chinese. But this seems objectionable to you?

 

[ALFAitalia]

We know that the value of diesel and petrol engined cars has collapsed.

What?......no they haven't..........after all the massive post COVID rises they are not even close to the pre COVID prices yet.......even with recent reductions in Glasses Guide. EV's are falling WAY faster, due to lack of demand, and recent hefty slashing of new EV prices....and heavy discounting has always been a good way of clubbing residual values to death.

But to spin a positive on it....that just what you want if you want to buy a used EV....and of course since most buy on PCP the residual value, apart from affecting you monthly payments, is not the scary issue it is if you buy outright.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

What exactly is the issue with stuff made in China?

But, but, but.... people want to give huge amounts of money to the Arabs and Norwegians.

But, but, but....people prefer to use proper British electronics, rather than Chinese iPhones, iPads, and laptops.

Things like my first calculator, which was the only privately owned calculator in the factory, when I started work.

The UK stopped making calculators shortly thereafter.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

What?......no they haven't..........after all the massive post COVID rises they are not even close to the pre COVID prices yet.......even with recent reductions in Glasses Guide. EV's are falling WAY faster, due to lack of demand, and recent hefty slashing of new EV prices....and heavy discounting has always been a good way of clubbing residual values to death.

£20k lost over 40k miles. Looks like ICE has taken a clubbing.

Can there be a future of petrol cars when they're costing 50p a mile in depreciation alone?

You can't look at one side without looking at the other.

 

[Pontoneer]

Aren’t people strange.

If I see someone driving a new car I think “that’s a nice car”.

I do not perceive the majority of new cars as in any way nice ; most are just fugly .

 

[Pontoneer]

Typo: you meant to write AMG.

The majority of the public will buy a used EV when the used price is right, when the nonsense about reliability and usage is disproved, and when they realise that they can fuel it at 4p a mile.

Cough: notice how I didn’t mention the EU fining car companies literally billions of Euros so they cannot sell ICE in the future….

If so , they can only fine them if they sell in the EU ; there is a whole world out there which won't be so fussy , hence this story

‘We’ll keep building our diesel offroaders despite net zero ban’

Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s carmaker Ineos Automotive will continue making petrol and diesel-burning motors into the next decade despite the global drive to net zero, new chief Lynn Calder has said.

uk.yahoo.com

 

[Pontoneer]

£20k lost over 40k miles. Looks like ICE has taken a clubbing.

Can there be a future of petrol cars when they're costing 50p a mile in depreciation alone?

You can't look at one side without looking at the other.



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Just buy them further down the cycle ; then you can enjoy as they climb up the other side of the curve . Trick is to buy when they hit rock bottom and can only go back up .

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Anyone fancy a brand new MG ? On your driveway for £27k.

£400 to fuel for 10,000 miles, assuming you just charge it on your driveway.

How about in three years time, when it's just £13k to buy

Or in six years time when it's £6k ?

(Don't forget that the seven year warranty runs out in 2030.)

 

[Pontoneer]

Will they be building their ICE cars in their sheds? (Because your elected politicians are banning the manufacture and sale of new ICE.)

Bear in mind that less than 3% of modern vehicles are BEVs. It will take decades before they work their way through the system.

Thirty years ago it was unthinkable that my parents would have bought a mobile phone, let alone a smartphone. They still had a landline in the hall. Progress is fast. (Another example: my mother didn't learn to drive a car. "Why would you? Let alone "what couple would ever need two cars?"

Here's that video again of what roads used to look like. People change. When this was made there were just five million cars on the road. Within a decade that doubled. Now it's seven times as many. Things change.

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I think they are only banning the registration of new ICE cars ; anyone can still build them and sell into other markets .

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Just buy them further down the cycle ; then you can enjoy as they climb up the other side of the curve . Trick is to buy when they hit rock bottom and can only go back up .

Quite !

You and I know this. Others aren't so smart.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I think they are only banning the registration of new ICE cars ; anyone can still build them and sell into other markets .

You should explain that toRolls Royce, Bentley, JLR. Lotus and all the other European manufacturers.

They believe they can't survive without selling vehicles into Europe, China, North America and all the other countries which are introducing ICE bans.

 

[markjay]

But, but, but.... people want to give huge amounts of money to the Arabs and Norwegians.

But, but, but....people prefer to use proper British electronics, rather than Chinese iPhones, iPads, and laptops.

Things like my first calculator, which was the only privately owned calculator in the factory, when I started work.

The UK stopped making calculators shortly thereafter.



View attachment 146732

Calculators, yes, but Psions were made in the UK well into early 2000s. We sold quite a few at the time.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Calculators, yes, but Psions were made in the UK well into early 2000s. We sold quite a few at the time.

True. Mea culpa. Was never a fan of the Psion.

And thinking about it, there was the BBC Micro too

Wonder how many are looking at this post on a British Psion?

Using British software, a British router, and connected to a British internet backbone?

Everyone's using Chinese or Asian tech, albeit designed, marketed and sold by Brits and Californians.


.

 

[davymead]

What you mean is that they're not buying them at the prices the manufacturers originally sold them for.

The five year old e-Golf is sold for £15k, the five year old i3, more like £18k.

Now talk us through the depreciation on five year old diesels and petrol.

The car manufacturers have had unprecedented profits these last three years thanks to covid, supply chain, and government subsidy. Those days are over for them. It's time for them to bring those prices down.

It's embarrassing £20k lost on a basic Merc saloon in just five years. Who would want to lose £20k on an old fashioned ICE car?

View attachment 146731

I don’t see a collapse in the price of ICE vehicles. In fact I think the prices of a used vehicle be it petrol or diesel are unprecedented, certainly in the time I’ve been involved.