Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[Bobby Dazzler]

I’m not convinced it will make a jot of real difference to car manufacturers.

They almost all operate in a global market, and the UK is just one country specific market. Furthermore the UK was a relative outlier in having the most aggressive timeline, the majority are later or much later.

The vast majority of manufacturers will already have a portfolio of ICE and EV models going well beyond 2030 and so it just means there will be a slightly richer mix sold in the UK for longer.

As far as I am aware, manufacturers must still meet the fleet emissions targets, and tax incentives will continue unchanged so they’ll still shift plenty of EV metal (composite materials also available ).

EV-only brands like Tesla or Fisker will be most exposed, but even then I don’t believe it will have a meaningful impact on sales. Jaguar and Volvo may need to extend their plans to become EV only.

Last of all, despite the gasps of shock and horror in the media, pretty much everyone thought that a change in proposed legislation would happen before 2030, it just wasn’t clear when they’d play the card.

Anti-EV proponents always said the “ban”would never happen, realistic evangelists and the silent majority thought it would probably change. Industry analysts and manufacturers aren’t dim either.

I personally thought it would likely happen before the general election in 2024 or later in say 2027/8. I would have preferred 2028, but not surprised it’s pre election - I am surprised that it’s 2023 though!

It was interesting to see that Labour (not being political) immediately stated that they’d go back to the original plan if they were voted in. Saying the opposite is par for the course but a brave play nonetheless.

 

[markjay]

Correction, 2035 now.

But it's 80% zero-emissions new car sales. Only 20% of buyers will be able to get a new ICE car, and they will probably have to pay a premium for it.

It's potentially good news for new EV buyers (and leasers) though, manufacturers will likely offer discounts on EVs to meet the 80% target.

 

[as400]

Yayy! electric cars, Green

 

[markjay]

Yayy! electric cars, Green

Absolutely.

EVs are not greener than ICE cars. They are made of the same metals and plastics. No form of personal mobility is green, however propelled.

EVs are zero-emissions, that's true, but that's about it. Producing them and recycling then is at least as bad for the environment as ICE cars, if not more.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

You make money from margin on volume traded. A constipated market, like the last two years is bad for trade.

Lower new and resale prices will force people to update. Call it “churn,” if you will.

Nobody goes broke making lots of small or medium profits.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

EVs are not greener than ICE cars. They are made of the same metals and plastics. No form of personal mobility is green, however propelled.
EVs are zero-emissions, that's true, but that's about it. Producing them and recycling then is at least as bad for the environment as ICE cars, if not more.

Not that any of this EV thing has anything to do with being "Green," or even about reducing pollution.
All the legislation, from California to Brussels is about reducing CO2 because of climate change.

(OK, there is a background desire to avoid giving money to the Middle East, Russia, Norway, and USA, but that's still a background driver.)

 

[Benzowner]

Just a thought, how many chargers can be installed in the average street before major re-cabling needs doing. 7.4kw chargers (32amps) is a hell of a power draw, I know there are smaller ones, about 3kw but even a few of them will use a a lot of power all charging at night.

 

[Tonye]

The cables will be big as well, powering all the new posts and electric boilers, or will they sink heat pumps in the road.
Total madness.
Could always flatten the lot and build modern flats with underground parking with charge points, and a new power station while there at it.

I did say

 

[Tonye]

Personally i think the U turn is a good thing, it may even give lesser countries time to catchup with the technologies and also give a real terms value of a clapped out EV.

 

[Darrell]

Personally i think the U turn is a good thing, it may even give lesser countries time to catchup with the technologies and also give a real terms value of a clapped out EV.

I agree. It also gives the manufacturers, suppliers etc plenty of time to get it right.

 

[BIGDOG]

I wonder if there will be a ‘run’ on new ICE car sales following Rishi’s announcement?

I’m considering an RS4 Avant and it’s already a 6 month delivery.

 

[Pontoneer]

there's certainly a slump in EV sales As electric shift stalls, Volkswagen weighs up savings

 

[Pontoneer]

Not that any of this EV thing has anything to do with being "Green," or even about reducing pollution.
All the legislation, from California to Brussels is about reducing CO2 because of climate change.

(OK, there is a background desire to avoid giving money to the Middle East, Russia, Norway, and USA, but that's still a background driver.)

they need to start taxing cyclists who exhale ever more CO2 with all their huffing and puffing .

 

[Pontoneer]

No I’m not. But - you know that data can already be overlaid via regular power lines right?

So it’s not a massive leap to suggest that either the car will talk to the meter when charging (perhaps to dynamically adjust current at peak times) or the meter will interrogate the car for information.

Heck, with the new generation of EV’s that can feed power back to your house batteries/the grid, what I mentioned above will almost certainly come to pass. They WILL know what you’re doing, they’ll have their pound of flesh and there will be nothing you can do to get around that.

You could generate ypur own electricity via a wind turbine or solar panels ; then it is yours to do with as you wish .

 

[markjay]

No I’m not. But - you know that data can already be overlaid via regular power lines right?

So it’s not a massive leap to suggest that either the car will talk to the meter when charging (perhaps to dynamically adjust current at peak times) or the meter will interrogate the car for information.

Heck, with the new generation of EV’s that can feed power back to your house batteries/the grid, what I mentioned above will almost certainly come to pass. They WILL know what you’re doing, they’ll have their pound of flesh and there will be nothing you can do to get around that.

Fair enough. In comparison, pay-per-mile road charging seems far more simple to implement and far less intrusive. Let's hope that's what they'll go for.

 

[Darrell]

Let's hope that's what they'll go for.

Why?

 

[markjay]

Why?

Because it's fair to do it this way?

Obviously, the cost per mile will depend on various factors, EVs will pay more per mile, to compensate for the fact that their 'fuel' can't be taxed in the same way that ICE fuel is taxed.

Rural areas and motorways will be cheaper than city centres.

Rush hour travel will be more expensive.

Etc.

 

[Darrell]

Because it's fair to do it this way?

Obviously, the cost per mile will depend on various factors, EVs will pay more per mile, to compensate for the fact that their 'fuel' can't be taxed in the same way that ICE fuel is taxed.

Rural areas and motorways will be cheaper than city centres.

Rush hour travel will be more expensive.

Etc.

Instead of VED?

 

[markjay]

Instead of VED?

I would say yes. Not sure that the government will be happy with this idea, though.

 

[Darrell]

I would say yes. Not sure that the government will be happy with this idea, though.

If it’s instead of VED I’m up for it but if it’s as well as it……