There is a god and I think he must be a petrol-head...

[sgregory124]

Great news and it seems, driven by the Germans: Net zero ban on petrol cars in chaos after Brussels climbdown.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I love EU deadlines.

It's that whooshing noise they make as they fly by.

The UK will climb on the bandwagon shortly and push back that 2030 deadline for sure

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

One interesting theme that's not discussed is that these, very expensive, e-fuels can be used to dilute traditional carbon-based fuel.

So there's potential here to reduce emissions from our ordinary petrol and diesel from the pump.

Implementation is still sketchy but this could give a lower cost way of reducing carbon emissions across the board.

 

[grober]

Explainer: What are e-fuels, and can they help make cars CO2-free?

Germany has declared last-minute opposition to a landmark European Union law to end sales of CO2-emitting cars in 2035, demanding that sales be allowed of new cars with internal combustion engines after that date if they run on e-fuels.

www.reuters.com

Synthetic fuel - is that the future? | General Discussion

So Porsche announce they will produce synthetic fuel that is as clean as any EV by 2022. Could be good news if you have a 63 like me.

forums.mbclub.co.uk

Siemens Energy Press

We energize society. Siemens Energy is committed to make sustainable, reliable, and affordable energy possible, with innovative technologies and clear focus on our customers’ needs.

press.siemens-energy.com

 

[markjay]

Great news and it seems, driven by the Germans: Net zero ban on petrol cars in chaos after Brussels climbdown.

"Experts and politicians warned that British rules due to take effect in 2030 are untenable following the European climbdown, which will allow internal combustion engines as long as they burn carbon-neutral petrol alternatives."
...
"The former Tory leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith said: “The 2030 deadline for the elimination of petrol and diesel engine cars in the UK is simply not achievable."

Why does the EU climbdown make it 'untenable' for us? If it's 'unachievable', then it can't be done, full stop. But I don't understand (from the article anyway) why the EU climbdown makes it any more untenable or unachievable than it already is?

 

[Petrol Pete]

".....After opposition from the German auto industry...."

Well , there is a surprise ....not.

The whole thing is a crock and they know it . Small petrol engines are incredibly efficient and with the right investment (currently being squandered on EV) they could be made even better.

Yes, EV is coming ...but not yet , at least not for the common man/woman/gender fluid etc person.

 

[grober]

Unfortunately its likely to be very expensive for the average car owner.Its advantages are likely to be in applications requiring fuels with a high energy density such as aviation. Hence also the interest from high performance car manufacturers

 

[sgregory124]

Unfortunately its likely to be very expensive for the average car owner.Its advantages are likely to be in applications requiring fuels with a high energy density such as aviation.

Over time it’ll get cheaper - Ferrari seem to believe so anyway (according to the article).

"However, Benedetto Vigna, the boss of Ferrari, said this week that he expects the price to fall in coming years and experts believe it could be the thin end of a wedge that would allow carmakers to focus on producing lower-cost e-fuels instead of expensive battery powered cars."

 

[190]

I always expected a reassessment of the deadline once a degree of realism set in. This EU climb down is only for e-fuels and if the cost is substantially higher than current fuels it's not going to take off. Possibly e-fuel blends will be a more realistic solution.

An extension to hybrids might be on the cards but they are only an improvement on straight IC's for short trips and can be worse on longer trips due to the extra weight. I'm attracted to hybrids in theory but I'm not convinced the reality always matches up.

The biggest issue in all of this is movement of the goal posts for car manufacturers who have largely already abandoned ic development. Will they want to start up again now they have seen the prospects of bigger profits from EV's ?

 

[ALFAitalia]

I love EU deadlines.

It's that whooshing noise they make as they fly by.

The UK will climb on the bandwagon shortly and push back that 2030 deadline for sure

Like to bet on that.....If so why? I cant see it being delayed one moment. We have the electricity, we are getting the infrastructure, at current rate of take up and allowing for predicted sales of EVs there will be no more than about 25% of car on UK roads that are pure EV by 2030....its just a continuation of what is happening now....a slow switch over. Hate them myself and I will NEVER buy one.....but its happening gents....Don't forget that most people in the UK are not petrol heads like us and really could not care less what their cars are powered by.....sad but true. According to the National Grid if we all went EV tomorrow they could cope with demand....see below.

Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

Can the electricity grid cope with more EVs? And what really happens to old EV batteries? Find out the answer to these and many more questions about electric vehicles in our comprehensive EV myth-buster.

www.nationalgrid.com

 

[sgregory124]

Like to bet on that.....If so why? I cant see it being delayed one moment. We have the electricity, we are getting the infrastructure, at current rate of take up and allowing for predicted sales of EVs there will be no more than about 25% of car on UK roads that are pure EV by 2030....its just a continuation of what is happening now....a slow switch over. Hate them myself and I will NEVER buy one.....but its happening gents....Don't forget that most people in the UK are not petrol heads like us and really could not care less what their cars are powered by.....sad but true. According to the National Grid if we all went EV tomorrow they could cope with demand....see below.

Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

Can the electricity grid cope with more EVs? And what really happens to old EV batteries? Find out the answer to these and many more questions about electric vehicles in our comprehensive EV myth-buster.

www.nationalgrid.com

But it won’t happen, the current ‘government’ are utterly incompetent. They are simply incapable of doing anything properly, on-time, on budget, without lying, cheating etc.

I’d put money on them pulling a U-turn within weeks.

 

[markjay]

Like to bet on that.....If so why? I cant see it being delayed one moment. We have the electricity, we are getting the infrastructure, at current rate of take up and allowing for predicted sales of EVs there will be no more than about 25% of car on UK roads that are pure EV by 2030....its just a continuation of what is happening now....a slow switch over. Hate them myself and I will NEVER buy one.....but its happening gents....Don't forget that most people in the UK are not petrol heads like us and really could not care less what their cars are powered by.....sad but true. According to the National Grid if we all went EV tomorrow they could cope with demand....see below.

Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

Can the electricity grid cope with more EVs? And what really happens to old EV batteries? Find out the answer to these and many more questions about electric vehicles in our comprehensive EV myth-buster.

www.nationalgrid.com

Personally, I think that the whole issue of 'will the grid cope' is a Red Herring.

All cars - EVs & ICE - have a massive environmental footprint regardless of their means of propulsion.

Encouraging ICE drivers to move to EV is akin to giving drug-addicts Methadone instead of Heroin, and telling them that this is the answer to their problem.

I am all in favour of EVs (and indeed have one myself). I often 'defend' EVs on here, but that's simply because some of the 'arguments' against them are clearly fabricated with the sole intention of making EVs look like a less-favourable choice than ICE cars. And so I find myself fighting the EV corner.

But looking at this dispassionately, there is no way that all the plant's adult inhabitants can have cars and drive them everywhere, all the time - it's an extinction event in the making.

 

[Bellow]

All cars - EVs & ICE - have a massive environmental footprint regardless of their means of propulsion.

ICE has a lower environmental footprint than EV and - especially when freed of onerous emissions kit (see below) easier to maintain extending life and better amortising the production emissions.

But looking at this dispassionately, there is no way that all the plant's adult inhabitants can have cars and drive them everywhere, all the time - it's an extinction event in the making.

Re above - and following on from another thread conversation - true, up until the point (if it is ever reached) where we have an abundance of renewably generated electricity. If that is achieved then life as we know it can continue as it is. Seeing (in Grober's linked article) that E-fuels require five times the electricity that an EV gets around on is a steep hill to climb for ICE to survive.
In a certain sense, it may be better for ICE to die now - and be resurrected anew when we are in a position to produce E-fuels without robbing other more important consumers of electricity. Starting anew we could/should embark on different ICE technology as the current technology is all about reducing CO2 emissions which with E-fuel is no longer a concern. The NOx they emit is still problematic though and there are solutions to that when it is prioritised over CO2.
E-fuels - of which methanol looks the most promising - are some way off for universal use. Methanol (and ethanol) can be grown though. Just as soon as the land wasted on beef production is made available. In the short term it can't be meat and ICE. One or the other. Benz or burger. Ironic, on a Mercedes forum that that choice is to continue consuming meat. Is the decarbonising project unrealistic - or the expectation that 'life as we know it' can continue without alteration?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Like to bet on that.....

Yes.

Four decades of watching EEC and EU deadlines slide. It’s hard to get 27 nations to agree, but even more so when the proposal is not in their conomic best interest.

EVs are coming, for sure. Thé issue is the time scale and implementation. We’re rich so we have options, but for the poorer parts of the union, the end of cheap motoring is an issue, which even China can’t fix in this ambitious timescale.

Good news for UK service garages, and UK manufacturers whatever way it goes.

 

[Germgh0st]

I'd like to open a new can or worms and predict that EV's are just a stop gap before hyrdogen power is the norm

 

[markjay]

ICE has a lower environmental footprint than EV and - especially when freed of onerous emissions kit (see below) easier to maintain extending life and better amortising the production emissions.

I don't think that anyone has actually done this calculation while taking into account all the relevant factors.

Yes, EVs have batteries that need to be manufactured, and then disposed-of, and yes they are heavier cars.

But ICE cars have engines and transmissions, made of metal, that need to be manufactured using precision machinery, and that machinery also needs to be manufactured, and replaced from time to time.... plus, building engines and transmissions is a labour-intensive task, and then you have to also consider the footprint of the employees driving to work every day etc. And, ICE cars need every now and then new engine oil and transmission ATF, and fuel and air filters, that - again - need to be made - and then often end-up in landfills (not every country around the world has strict laws about recycling used automotive service products). Not to mention brake discs and pads - and the factories that make them - and the employees that work in these factories - etc etc.

I am not suggesting that I know what the answer is, just to say that there's a tendency to point a finger at EVs' batteries and weight, while the reality is actually more complicated than that (and possibly too complicated to come up with a reliable calculation).

Either way - it's probably a case of six of one, half a dozen of the other.

 

[Bellow]

I don't think that anyone has actually done this calculation while taking into account all the relevant factors.

No calculation necessary. ICE is easy, and has an abundance of people well versed in how to. The same cannot be said for EV maintenance/repair which is dependent on OEM training and equipment (think STAR and multiply by 1000) and will not freely disseminate. (I had engines apart and back together before I was in my teens. Show me the kid that can rebuild an invertor - or be allowed anywhere near one).

But ICE cars have engines and transmissions, made of metal, that need to be manufactured using precision machinery, and that machinery also needs to be manufactured, and replaced from time to time.... plus, building engines and transmissions is a labour-intensive task,

When we are no longer chasing the last fraction of a percent of CO2 reduction the engine and transmissions can be simpler, cheaper, less reliant on expensive materials and production processes. They can also be less reliant on electronic modules which fail at whim and which are only replaceable in a short timeframe before being discontinued or absurdly priced (£1700 for a ABS/ESP ECU for a humble smart fortwo) - built in obsolescence.

and then you have to also consider the footprint of the employees driving to work every day etc.

Either there's a productive economy - or there isn't. There will be employees travelling to and from a work place building ICE, EV, stuffed toys, etc, etc.

And, ICE cars need every now and then new engine oil and transmission ATF, and fuel and air filters, that - again - need to be made - and then often end-up in landfills (not every country around the world has strict laws about recycling used automotive service products). Not to mention brake discs and pads - and the factories that make them - and the employees that work in these factories - etc etc.

EVs will still have disposable consumables - the battery being the biggie - unless and until such time as meaningful recycling exists. ICE waste pales next to household waste in any case.

I am not suggesting that I know what the answer is, just to say that there's a tendency to point a finger at EVs' batteries and weight, while the reality is actually more complicated than that (and possibly too complicated to come up with a reliable calculation).

We know the challenges ICE poses and many can be addressed. EVs are less of a known quantity. Already there are concerns that their lifespan will be wastefully lower than ICE and the recycling of batteries is not yet a fact.

Either way - it's probably a case of six of one, half a dozen of the other.

Jeep were laughed at several years ago when it made the environmental case for its vehicles based on the use of low tech materials, simple production processes, and long (decades) working life. How many overly complicated diesels have to be prematurely scrapped for Jeep's claim to be taken seriously? How many EV's being scrapped at eight years old (with or without battery recycling) before we realise Jeep may have been heading down the right path? If they (Jeeps) had been running on CO2 neutral fuels they would absolutely have been right.

 

[Bellow]

I'd like to open a new can or worms and predict that EV's are just a stop gap before hyrdogen power is the norm

Leave the worms and instead develop the can that can contain hydrogen. Good luck with that!

 

[Germgh0st]

Leave the worms and instead develop the can that can contain hydrogen. Good luck with that!

It's already been done

Cars: Hydrogen Electric XP1 Hypercar - Hyperion

Hyperion is proud to have leading experts in hydrogen fuel cell and aerospace technology.

www.hyperion.inc

Just need to scale that down a bit!

 

[markjay]

No calculation necessary. ICE is easy, and has an abundance of people well versed in how to. The same cannot be said for EV maintenance/repair which is dependent on OEM training and equipment (think STAR and multiply by 1000) and will not freely disseminate. (I had engines apart and back together before I was in my teens. Show me the kid that can rebuild an invertor - or be allowed anywhere near one).


When we are no longer chasing the last fraction of a percent of CO2 reduction the engine and transmissions can be simpler, cheaper, less reliant on expensive materials and production processes. They can also be less reliant on electronic modules which fail at whim and which are only replaceable in a short timeframe before being discontinued or absurdly priced (£1700 for a ABS/ESP ECU for a humble smart fortwo) - built in obsolescence.

Either there's a productive economy - or there isn't. There will be employees travelling to and from a work place building ICE, EV, stuffed toys, etc, etc.

EVs will still have disposable consumables - the battery being the biggie - unless and until such time as meaningful recycling exists. ICE waste pales next to household waste in any case.

We know the challenges ICE poses and many can be addressed. EVs are less of a known quantity. Already there are concerns that their lifespan will be wastefully lower than ICE and the recycling of batteries is not yet a fact.

Jeep were laughed at several years ago when it made the environmental case for its vehicles based on the use of low tech materials, simple production processes, and long (decades) working life. How many overly complicated diesels have to be prematurely scrapped for Jeep's claim to be taken seriously? How many EV's being scrapped at eight years old (with or without battery recycling) before we realise Jeep may have been heading down the right path? If they (Jeeps) had been running on CO2 neutral fuels they would absolutely have been right.

Try and compare some EV vs ICE cars here:

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): How Sustainable is Your Car

To understand the true ecological impact and sustainability of a car, it must be viewed in the context of its whole life cycle. Read more about it

www.greenncap.com