Whats your strategy for year 2030 / ban of ICE vehicles?

[Deleted member 55947]

I think that one major stumbling block is that there are around 2m new private cars sold every year in the UK alone, and this is before taking into account the rest of the European countries.

It is really questionable how fast can automakers wrench up production of new EVs? I am not event referring to a availability of raw materials or subsystems such as batteries and semiconductors, just to the actual production capacity of the car factories.

If they are to be able to meet the need and supply tens of millions of new EVs annually within this decade, then they should start build (or convert) the factories now.

Perhaps they know something we don’t

 

[190]

Does everyone think the ban for ICE will actually take place in 2030.

Consider it was an arbitrary date in the first place. The date started out as 2040, was then brought forward to 2035 and then again to 2030. What nice round numbers they are in neat increments of 5. Does that suggest a carefully calculated and achievable plan with credibility or more the whim of virtue signalling politicians. If the date was chosen by snatching it out of thin air then perhaps it can be changed again on the same basis.

There are ways out should 2030 start to look like a catastrophe for the economy and country. In order to save face every ICE could nominally be a hybrid by 2030 which automatically extends the date to 2035. Then should 2035 look unpromising it could be extended again.

The public will not tolerate being continually sold a dud. Air sourced heat pump installations are simply not going to happen being orders of magnitude below target. So there's another dud well on in the making. EV's are beginning to look like they are not the universal solution for all vehicles and uses so maybe we need to think again only a bit more rationally this time.

The public will support a continual reduction in the countries carbon footprint and that's what we have been doing very successfully.. But they won't support policies arrived on a wing and a prayer which is where we seem to be heading at the moment.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Does everyone think the ban for ICE will actually take place in 2030.

Personally I do......I dont really see any insurmountable reasons it cant now. Its effectively slowly happening now with fast increasing take up on EVs...cant move due the boring bloody things around here! I'll never own one though that's for sure! It will just be a slow switchover to EVs between now and, what? 2060 when the vast majority of ICE cars have fallen to bits.....I doubt you will notice any sudden difference in 2030.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

There are ways out should 2030 start to look like a catastrophe for the economy and country. In order to save face every ICE could nominally be a hybrid by 2030 which automatically extends the date to 2035. Then should 2035 look unpromising it could be extended again.

I’m not sure what is “saving face” about what you have written. Cars with ICE can and will be sold until 2035 in the form of hybrids, that’s what the target is.

Advances in battery technology, renewable engorge rollout and charging infrastructure will also be significant in the next 11-12 years, so 2035 currently seems fair.

And of course if something changes - or ability to achieve those targets is affected then the dates can change - why on Earth would anyone think it couldn’t?

Well anyone who is not set on the agenda that EVs are doomed, everyone connected to Government is incompetent, and it’s all a dastardly plan of a New World Order.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Hardly any hybrids meet the criteria for being sold after 2030 (at the moment at least) as they need to do over 50 miles battery power only. A quick look at specs shows that hardly any do....including the new C63 in current form.

 

[Steveml63]

Hi,
There is a huge amount of misinformation & fear being spread about EVs at the moment.
The Daily Fail seems to be running a concerted series of stories that they release on a daily basis.
First it was Rowan Atkinson regretting buying an EV
Then it was a government minister regretting her purchase.
Then it was a story about EV residual values in the USA - not the UK.
Then there was a story about tyres
Then today I saw a story about a Tesla Model Y on fire.
There is clearly a huge behind the scenes lobby from oil industry (who see themselves losing sales) & legacy auto makers (who are trying hard to make EVs economically that people actually want to buy).
Both these lobbies want to stretch ICE car production as long as possible.
VW are in big trouble because their pathetic attempt at EVs is a big flop - poor range, poor performance & abysmal software (‘that they farmed out to some cheap company, allegedly).
Many or most of the above stories are either partially or totally false!
Just a few examples - a Tesla Model 3 (a purpose built EV) weighs about the same as a BMW 3 series saloon.
EVs that have been built on conventional car chassis are indeed heavier - but these are because the legacy auto makers have hurriedly & lazily introduced these badly designed vehicles to the market, They have no chance of making a decent profit on these vehicles - compared with one designed from the ground up to be an EV.
EVs hardly ever catch fire - but always make front page news when they do!
A petrol engine is only around 30% efficient at converting raw petrol energy to motion. You also need to transport the petrol to the filling station - upon inefficient diesel trucks.
Electric motors are far more efficient and you can transmit the electricity along to the chargers in a much more efficient way than diesel or petrol.
Many EVs have heat pumps rather than conventional AC systems - these are also far more energy efficient.
The misinformation is so rife at the moment - along with the common sound bites being spouted by journalists who don’t know better!
Cheers
Steve

 

[StMarks]

Not sure why the world is discovering this by piecemeal, but eventually they'll all wake up to the idea that EVs aren't the solution........

Cars aren't green... full stop. They can't be, and never will be. We need to have less cars (whether powered by ICE, EV, Hydrogen, or fairy dust), and drive them less...........

However,,,,,,,

If we had a global population level of say ( scientifically calculated by minds far greater than you or I ) around that of the 1960's....
Were that the case, we would all be able to enjoy the benefits of personal mobility technology, and the planet (and ourselves) would not be suffering.

Cars are NOT the problem, they are simply another of the many symptoms.

You do not cure a brain tumour by taking paracetamol to reduce the pain, do you.?

 

[Dippo]

In terms of new model development in the automotive industry, 2030 is not far away at all. Manufacturers need to know what they are going to be expected to produce.

 

[Tonye]

Manufacturers need to know what they are going to be expected to produce.

Exactly what they produce now, not everyone is banning them.

 

[ChipChop]

Hi,
There is a huge amount of misinformation & fear being spread about EVs at the moment.
The Daily Fail seems to be running a concerted series of stories that they release on a daily basis.
First it was Rowan Atkinson regretting buying an EV
Then it was a government minister regretting her purchase.
Then it was a story about EV residual values in the USA - not the UK.
Then there was a story about tyres
Then today I saw a story about a Tesla Model Y on fire.
There is clearly a huge behind the scenes lobby from oil industry (who see themselves losing sales) & legacy auto makers (who are trying hard to make EVs economically that people actually want to buy).
Both these lobbies want to stretch ICE car production as long as possible.
VW are in big trouble because their pathetic attempt at EVs is a big flop - poor range, poor performance & abysmal software (‘that they farmed out to some cheap company, allegedly).
Many or most of the above stories are either partially or totally false!
Just a few examples - a Tesla Model 3 (a purpose built EV) weighs about the same as a BMW 3 series saloon.
EVs that have been built on conventional car chassis are indeed heavier - but these are because the legacy auto makers have hurriedly & lazily introduced these badly designed vehicles to the market, They have no chance of making a decent profit on these vehicles - compared with one designed from the ground up to be an EV.
EVs hardly ever catch fire - but always make front page news when they do!
A petrol engine is only around 30% efficient at converting raw petrol energy to motion. You also need to transport the petrol to the filling station - upon inefficient diesel trucks.
Electric motors are far more efficient and you can transmit the electricity along to the chargers in a much more efficient way than diesel or petrol.
Many EVs have heat pumps rather than conventional AC systems - these are also far more energy efficient.
The misinformation is so rife at the moment - along with the common sound bites being spouted by journalists who don’t know better!
Cheers
Steve

This above may well be the case where you are in the middle East.

In the UK the core 'environmental' narrative, which includes the whole ICE V EV debate, being pushed into the publics conciousness on a daily basis is the opposite thanks to 'protest' groups such as just stop oil, insulate britain and extinction rebellion. There can be little doubt these groups are being gifted this unprecedented exposure by the status quo. Who else could grant such exposure?

See the "is the media complicit" thread on this forum.

 

[chic0821]

I'm going to stick a pencil up my nose like Blackadder (worked for him) & ignore them

 

[ALFAitalia]

TWO pencils are required for that to work Im afraid!!

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

In the UK the core 'environmental' narrative, which includes the whole ICE V EV debate, being pushed into the publics conciousness on a daily basis is the opposite thanks to 'protest' groups such as just stop oil, insulate britain and extinction rebellion.

Not sure that I agree with that. I would be surprised if their protests are actually resulting in any movement in public perception towards EV use. If anything I believe that it could actually be having the opposite effect.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Hardly any hybrids meet the criteria for being sold after 2030 (at the moment at least) as they need to do over 50 miles battery power only. A quick look at specs shows that hardly any do....including the new C63 in current form.

Although that’s not a surprise as the public demand for them is still building and won’t be full realised until the change in legislation, and so the car manufacturers don’t need to fulfill that criteria yet.

The range will will be extended when an all-new generation model or major facelift mode is released close to the end of the decade. All models on sale today will have had one or other in the next 7 years.

 

[markjay]

However,,,,,,,

If we had a global population level of say ( scientifically calculated by minds far greater than you or I ) around that of the 1960's....
Were that the case, we would all be able to enjoy the benefits of personal mobility technology, and the planet (and ourselves) would not be suffering.

Cars are NOT the problem, they are simply another of the many symptoms.

You do not cure a brain tumour by taking paracetamol to reduce the pain, do you.?

To my mind, the issue of the planet's overall resources is a separate one to that of the poor air quality in our cities leading to serious health issues, and the traffic congestion costing the economy millions if not billions in lost productivity.

Historically, urbanisation has always caused problems, that were resolved over the centuries: the issue of human waste in towns and cities was resolved by the invention of the central sewage system, the food distribution issue was resolved by the creation of farmers' markets where city dwellers could buy food produced in the countryside without having to travel far, the water supply issue was resolved by installing pipes and pumps providing fresh running water, etc etc.

The health issues from breathing harmful exhaust gases in large concentration, and the issue of traffic congestion, are relatively new problems caused by urbanisation.

The EV mitigates only one of the two issues (eliminating toxic exhaust fumes), but not the other (traffic congestion remains the same with ICE or EV).

City planners will (eventually) resolve this by limiting access to city centres, banning private vehicles (with some exceptions as needed for tradesmen, disabled, etc), and improving public transport by providing frequent, efficient, clean (both physically, and in terms of pollution) and affordable public transport.

Cities in the developing world will catch-up, as they always do, with a time lag, possibly lasting decades, but eventually they'll get there too.

Keeping in mind that about 80% of the population in the developed world are living in urban areas, the above will bring a natural reduction in demand for new private cars over time.

 

[SpikyMikey]

TWO pencils are required for that to work Im afraid!!

View attachment 143531

"Wibble"

 

[Steveml63]

This above may well be the case where you are in the middle East.

In the UK the core 'environmental' narrative, which includes the whole ICE V EV debate, being pushed into the publics conciousness on a daily basis is the opposite thanks to 'protest' groups such as just stop oil, insulate britain and extinction rebellion. There can be little doubt these groups are being gifted this unprecedented exposure by the status quo. Who else could grant such exposure?

See the "is the media complicit" thread on this forum.

Strangely - here in the UAE, where petrol is dirt cheap (and there are no diesel cars) - there is a huge surge in EV sales.
Both our petrol cars have now been replaced by full electric vehicles and we are very happy with our decision to do this - both on financial & environmental grounds.

 

[StMarks]

To my mind, the issue of the planet's overall resources is a separate one to that of the poor air quality in our cities....

Whilst I must agree with most of your observations MJ, I'm afraid we will have to agree to disagree that the two are not linked.
I can acknowledge that serious localised pollution was indeed a blight on urbanised areas a long time before overpopulation became our most serious threat.
However (as you have informed me numerous times in your posts) technology is improving constantly. Imho with a viable & stable population level those historical problems may be resolved.

Surely the exponential demands we will be ( /are) facing, mean that the same old issues that were historically localised to blight only urbanisation, are all now becoming global aren't they.?

 

[markjay]

Strangely - here in the UAE, where petrol is dirt cheap (and there are no diesel cars) - there is a huge surge in EV sales.
Both our petrol cars have now been replaced by full electric vehicles and we are very happy with our decision to do this - both on financial & environmental grounds.

You do realise that your neck of the woods has the highest electricity consumption per person, "in the world" (said in GC's voice) - they think that petroleum-based energy is great because.... it can be used to produce electricity.

OK, they do like their Veyrons and Lambos, but these are just toys.. .

 

[markjay]

Whilst I must agree with most of your observations MJ, I'm afraid we will have to agree to disagree that the two are not linked.
I can acknowledge that serious localised pollution was indeed a blight on urbanised areas a long time before overpopulation became our most serious threat.
However (as you have informed me numerous times in your posts) technology is improving constantly. Imho with a viable & stable population level those historical problems may be resolved.

Surely the exponential demands we will be ( /are) facing, mean that the same old issues that were historically localised to blight only urbanisation, are all now becoming global aren't they.?

I would argue that our planet has only one problem in relation to the resources required to support the number of people living on it: distribution.

We have more than enough in term of essential resources to maintain double the current population or more, it is just that our resources end-up in high concentration in a small number of physical locations, and in short supply in others.

The 'world' isn't lacking food - the amount of food waste in the developed countries is staggering. Every kitchen in every factory, hospital, military barracks, etc, throws away food at the end of each day. So do restaurants and coffee shops. Supermarket chains throw away (or give away) unsold fruit and veg. This is because we expect food to always be there when we want it, forcing food producers and retailers to make available more than will be consumed. The only way you can have fresh croissants every morning, is if the coffee shop bins any unsold croissant at the end of each day (our local coffee shop does that regularly).

Every year I spend some time in the south of Italy, where the population is more frugal. Freshly-made cheese and freshly-baked bread are available in the morning, until they run out, and then you can no longer buy them until the next day. This is because the population isn't wealthy and they have good waste-prevention habits.

Drinking water? 70% of the surface of the planet is covered in water. Seawater can be desalinated, or we can run pipes, or ship it in containers from north Europe, in the same way that we do with gas and oil. There are commercial constraints, obviously, because poor countries have no money to pay for it. But is this a reason to reduce the world's population?

The key issue with resource distribution is, in fact, geopolitical. I remember reading some time ago what a US Marines officer said about the hunger in Somalia back in the nineties: he said that US supply ships dock regularly in Somalian ports secured by the Marines, unload food and medicines which then gets loaded into local trucks. The convoys then makes their way inland towards the areas where the food shortages are, only to be intercepted after a couple of miles by local warlords who seize the supplies and sell them on the black market. Repeatedly. And this is, in a nutshell, the issue with resources distribution.