Has UK enough generating power for electric cars , heat pumps and all other requirements

[GeeJayW]

I am at a conference today and one of the topics is a move from the age of abundance to the age of waste reduction. It's a point that I fully agree with - we need to start looking at energy as a precious resource and ration it rather than encourage people to use more and more of it (be it by generating electricity or burning carbon etc). More specifically regarding this thread, the implications are that ICE or EVs, we need to have less private vehicles, and use them less.

Been saying this for years. Unfortunately the global economy doesn't understand the word 'less' and is instead focused on 'more'.

If we use less energy, materials and resources, society will be charged more per unit for those things that we do use in order to compensate for the loss of revenue. Until that is solved, there will never be a meaningful drive towards using less.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

I’ve seen multiple references suggesting that the National Grid is investing £54bn between 2024 and 2030 and as such the National Grid is not ready for EVs.

Out interest does anyone know how much the National Grid invested from 2018 to 2024, or 2014 to 2020, or 2004 to 2010, or any similar period in the past?

 

[Dryce]

Yes, this the highly-urbanised view applicable to densly-populated areas only.

The other 20% of the population can continue to drive whatever they want to wherever they want, their overall impact will be minimal once the 'London'-type areas are sorted.

I suspect that only about 20% of the population live within areas with dense and flexible public transport and work in areas with dense and flexible public transport.

London being the prime example.

Other cities / other areas of cities don't have the same kind of networks available.

This is where London-centric policy making is maybe OK for London but maybe not the correct perspective to work from for many of the rest of us.

I would add that I have lived/worked in Glasgow and Edinburgh areas and over the decades commuting by public transport has sometimes been viable - sometimes not - depending on the journey.

 

[rf065]

At those sorts of distances you can in effect think of a global grid - and use it to transfer energy across the diurnal cycle, seasonal cycles, and tides.

You'd then think about backing that with massive batteries and pump storage setups (perhaps coastal and related to pump / storage tidal combinations rather than mountains and lakes/lochs).

How about backing it up for when Russia drag an anchor over these cables and pipes and disrupt everyone, make no mistake, they're mapping all these cables and pipes and have already damaged a few which is being suppressed by various governments.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Suppressed by governments.....but you know all about it!!

 

[rf065]

Suppressed by governments.....but you know all about it!!

View attachment 154636

Official reason is damage from fishing vessels, but hours after Russian boats are spotted in the area, the undersea internet cables to the Orkney Islands were severed in two separate places. Coincidence? The Baltic interconnector in Finland, and the first gas main damaged in 3 explosions off Sweden after a Russian and Chinese boat both sailed over it. It has been well documented that Russia has been mapping the locations of these pipes/cables for a long time now. Make no mistake, if WW3 broke out tomorrow, all these internet/gas and electric lines would all mysteriously break at the same time and that has nothing to do with wearing tin hats.

 

[markjay]

I suspect that only about 20% of the population live within areas with dense and flexible public transport and work in areas with dense and flexible public transport.

London being the prime example.

Other cities / other areas of cities don't have the same kind of networks available.

This is where London-centric policy making is maybe OK for London but maybe not the correct perspective to work from for many of the rest of us.

I would add that I have lived/worked in Glasgow and Edinburgh areas and over the decades commuting by public transport has sometimes been viable - sometimes not - depending on the journey.

No disrespect intended, but the entire population of Scotland constitutes around 8% of the UK population, while Scotland had nearly a third of the land area of the entire UK, and so I really can't see how any place in Scotland can be an example of a highly-urbanised and densly-populated area.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Official reason is damage from fishing vessels, but hours after Russian boats are spotted in the area, the undersea internet cables to the Orkney Islands were severed in two separate places. Coincidence? The Baltic interconnector in Finland, and the first gas main damaged in 3 explosions off Sweden after a Russian and Chinese boat both sailed over it. It has been well documented that Russia has been mapping the locations of these pipes/cables for a long time now. Make no mistake, if WW3 broke out tomorrow, all these internet/gas and electric lines would all mysteriously break at the same time and that has nothing to do with wearing tin hats.

Not sure it would be much of a mystery if WW3 broke out!

Your comment regarding the Internet cables to Orkney - based upon the way you describe it then I assume that this cable connects Orkney to the mainland UK infrastructure rather than passing through Orkney connecting the UK mainland to somewhere further afield, is that right?

If so, then what would the Russian Government’s motive be for doing that?

Seems like an unusual move at first glance, unless their intention was goading to cause a war. If it was then there couldn’t have been much intent behind it, because even if the UK Government didn’t react, then surely the lack of reaction would prompt them to do the same to another pipe, or sent jets over London, rather than give up.

 

[markjay]

Official reason is damage from fishing vessels, but hours after Russian boats are spotted in the area, the undersea internet cables to the Orkney Islands were severed in two separate places. Coincidence? The Baltic interconnector in Finland, and the first gas main damaged in 3 explosions off Sweden after a Russian and Chinese boat both sailed over it. It has been well documented that Russia has been mapping the locations of these pipes/cables for a long time now. Make no mistake, if WW3 broke out tomorrow, all these internet/gas and electric lines would all mysteriously break at the same time and that has nothing to do with wearing tin hats.

It's certainly feasible that the Russians did this, either as a warning to the UK highlighting our vulnerability as an island, or as a live training exercise for the Russian navy.

However.... what's the connection to the grid's capacity and to EV charging?

 

[GeeJayW]

Official reason is damage from fishing vessels, but hours after Russian boats are spotted in the area, the undersea internet cables to the Orkney Islands were severed in two separate places. Coincidence? The Baltic interconnector in Finland, and the first gas main damaged in 3 explosions off Sweden after a Russian and Chinese boat both sailed over it. It has been well documented that Russia has been mapping the locations of these pipes/cables for a long time now. Make no mistake, if WW3 broke out tomorrow, all these internet/gas and electric lines would all mysteriously break at the same time and that has nothing to do with wearing tin hats.

Wearing a tin hat will definitely not help.

Sub-sea cables and pipelines have already been deliberately damaged by those that would wish to gain advantage and are a strategic weakness that will definitely be exploited in the event of conflict. As to who is responsible, often the 'walks like a duck' test seems yield a reasonable answer.

Biden said that the Russians would be unable to generate income from natural gas if they invaded Ukraine. Germany were 'balls deep' in Russian gas and as long as the Nordstream pipeline was a viable source of gas, getting Germany to use an alternative source (eg. LNG from the US...) might well have been a bit tricky. So it might have been the Russians (though I'm not seeing what they would gain), but could equally have been someone else.

On the Baltic connector, that's more likely IMHO to have been the Russians, as some sort of exercise to see how we coped with the loss. On the other hand it could have simply been a mistake by others to be identified.

Nobody is likely to put their hand up and say that they damaged these resources, but they have to be on the list of things to take out of action in war.

 

[GeeJayW]

It's certainly feasible that the Russians did this, either as a warning to the UK highlighting our vulnerability as an island, or as a live training exercise for the Russian navy.

However.... what's the connection to the grid's capacity and to EV charging?

Given that we import and export electricity, subsea infrastructure is an important subject. I do however apologise for my part in prolonging the diversion.

 

[markjay]

Given that we import and export electricity, subsea infrastructure is an important subject. I do however apologise for my part in prolonging the diversion.

What percentage of our electricity is dependent on subsea infrastructure? Can it easily be replaced by powering-up dormant power stations? If not, what are the implications?

Surely in a WW3 scenario we can disconnect many types of mass consumers (all the amusement parks, for one)?

And, if rationed the charging of privately owned EVs, would it hamper the war efforts? If we didn't have EVs, would we not have rationed fuel supply for private motor vehicles anyway?

In short, it's not a division, if it can be demonstrated that it's relevant.

 

[GeeJayW]

What percentage of our electricity is dependent on subsea infrastructure? Can it easily be replaced by powering-up dormant power stations? If not, what are the implications?

Surely in a WW3 scenario we can disconnect many types of mass consumers (all the amusement parks, for one)?

And, if rationed the charging of privately owned EVs, would it hamper the war efforts? If we didn't have EVs, would we not have rationed fuel supply for private motor vehicles anyway?

In short, it's not a division, if it can be demonstrated that it's relevant.

We might be able to manage without being connected to Europe, but the connection forms part of the balancing mechanism. Losing this would have an impact how the system functions, but I don’t know about the severity.

Great Britain's monthly electricity stats | ESO

Ever wonder how much electricity is generated and used in Great Britain? Find out what happened with our energy mix last month.

www.nationalgrideso.com

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

We might be able to manage without being connected to Europe, but the connection forms part of the balancing mechanism. Losing this would have an impact how the system functions, but I don’t know about the severity.

Great Britain's monthly electricity stats | ESO

Ever wonder how much electricity is generated and used in Great Britain? Find out what happened with our energy mix last month.

www.nationalgrideso.com

Love the panic about safety of cables during WW3, while ignoring how oil and gas is brought on shore and distributed within the UK. (e.g. how airline fuel is piped to LHR & LGW)

Let alone the WW3 impact on freight, air travel, and attacks on civilians.

Energy security is a key justification for the EV transition, after attempting to reduce the acceleration of climate change.

The Grid is planning to run on UK based renewables. It's cost reduction that makes international routing an option that can't be ignored.

Two thirds of the electricity we're using this afternoon comes from renewables, and most of that has come on stream in the last decade, with much more capacity already being built

 

[mercmancdi]

Waiting delivery of id.5 gtx so hopefully will enjoy it , but keeping my diesel glc in the meantime. Charger etc all fitted so ready to go once it lands.

 

[GeeJayW]

Love the panic about safety of cables during WW3, while ignoring how oil and gas is brought on shore and distributed within the UK. (e.g. how airline fuel is piped to LHR & LGW)

Let alone the WW3 impact on freight, air travel, and attacks on civilians.

A key justification for the EV transition, after attempting to reduce the acceleration of climate change, is energy security

The Grid is planning to run on UK based renewables. It's cost reduction that makes international routing an option that can't be ignored.

Two thirds of the electricity we're using this afternoon comes from renewables, and most of that has come on stream in the last decade, with much more capacity already being built



View attachment 154641

I think there will be plenty of things to worry/panic about in the event WW3 kicks off.

We do need to find viable alternatives to oil and gas for transport energy, and electricity is one of them.

It would be a mistake to switch off oil and gas entirely, so finding the right scale of operation is an important factor.

In the end, as Mark alluded to earlier, we need to start using much less energy, treating it as something of value rather than something to waste.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

As regularly reported, the UK uses the equivalent of just under 500 TWh of energy to fuel its petrol and diesel vehicles.

When they eventually become EV's they'll consume less than a quarter of that energy as electricity.

Yes, the Grid currently produces something like 330 TWh, so an extra 100TWh sounds like a lot, but as we've already discussed, we get more efficient every decade (consumption down 23% since 2005) and we're already bringing on huge renewable energy supplies

 

[Dryce]

What percentage of our electricity is dependent on subsea infrastructure? Can it easily be replaced by powering-up dormant power stations? If not, what are the implications?

The problem is lack of dormant power stations. We had a lot more power generation capability across the portfolio of nuclear, coal, and oil back in the 1970s and that infrastructure has been retired to the point where there is very little large scale plant available as a contingency.

So at the moment we have connectors to the continent. They don't deliver that much *but* given that lack of contingency supply means the connectors are disproportionately important should there be any UK plant failure and the weather isn't quite right.

Surely in a WW3 scenario we can disconnect many types of mass consumers (all the amusement parks, for one)?

And, if rationed the charging of privately owned EVs, would it hamper the war efforts? If we didn't have EVs, would we not have rationed fuel supply for private motor vehicles anyway?

The problem would be rationing consumption where EVs and households both use electricity.

However it is worth bearing in mind that if things go bad with infrastructure in conflict then (a) people adapt and (b) it becomes worthwhile spending substantial resource on protecting it.

 

[Dryce]

Yes, the Grid currently produces something like 330 TWh, so an extra 100TWh sounds like a lot, but as we've already discussed, we get more efficient every decade (consumption down 23% since 2005) and we're already bringing on huge renewable energy supplies

The issue with consumption is that you tend to make large savings only once - loss of industry - or more efficient technologies. The shavings off consumpton then become smaller.

At the same time the shift to electric heating and EVs pushes up consumption significantly.

And then there is the per-capita aspect where population is increasing - more per-capita quanta added every year.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

The issue with consumption is that you tend to make large savings only once - loss of industry - or more efficient technologies. The shavings off consumpton then become smaller.

At the same time the shift to electric heating and EVs pushes up consumption significantly.

And then there is the per-capita aspect where population is increasing - more per-capita quanta added every year.

So if I switch from a 200 watt to a 100 watt light bulb hanging from the centre of a living room, I won't be able to reduce my lighting bill any further?

Switching from a 250 watt desktop PC to a 150 watt PC - will be as far as we can go?

There's no point in improving home insulation, because our homes and offices are as thermally perfect as they'll ever be?

When I replaced my 20 year old boiler, we saw a 30% reduction in our gas usage, just from the boiler change alone.

As I said earlier, if we push up our electricity consumption by a 33%, we would be back to 2005 electricity consumption levels. We've already reduced our electricity consumption by 25% in two decades, despite the increased population and the new electricity applications.