Has UK enough generating power for electric cars , heat pumps and all other requirements

[MikeInWimbledon]

Well East Anglia looked like this just 10,000 years ago so it could happen........obviously it went under because of all the human carbon output from heavy industry, planes and ICE cars!!! Obviously whoever decided to call the submerged area Doggerland had a sense of humour.


WellView attachment 154521

I knew you were a bit older than most of us, but I didn't realise that you were THAT old.

It's interesting. When the Shipping Forecast says "Thames, Dogger." I always assumed it meant those riverside car parks between Hampton Court and Henley.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

On the subject of new applications, there are already warning bells being sounded about the massive increase in energy requirements to support AI computing but - as usual, as it's inconvenient - they're being ignored.

But hasn't Europe already committed to offshoring all the big server farms, continuing that two decade old tradition of leaving Tech to the Yanks?

We don't want Europeans become Tech Billionaires, like this motley crew have - in barely three decades.

(I know Buffet and the Koch brothers are marginal tech, but they're still the Tech and VC that Europe abhors)

 

[ALFAitalia]

Cheeky!.....I'm a VERY youthful 57!.....a mere slip of a lad compared to many on here!!.....Even my hair is not ALL grey yet!!

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Cheeky!.....I'm a VERY youthful 57!.....a mere slip of a lad compared to many on here!!.....Even my hair is not ALL grey yet!!

From 30 years ago:

 

[rf065]

There is without doubt enough electricity to power EVs....even if we all went EV tomorrow.....its just what percentage of that power would be of the green/sustainable variety. But even then the % of renewables grows every year. Even if ALL the power needed to power EV was from gas/coal or whatever powered stations it would still be massively more efficient with way less carbon output per mile travelled than powering cars with fossil fuels like petrol or diesel. Lots of nonsense talked about us not having enough power....see the EV car thread for details!!!

Busting the myths and misconceptions about electric vehicles | National Grid Group

Can the electricity grid cope with more EVs? And what really happens to old EV batteries? Find out the answer to these and many more questions about electric vehicles in our comprehensive EV myth-buster.

www.nationalgrid.com

None of that is true, forget everything the national grid say because they are not telling the whole story.
Imagine everyone in your street decided to build a swimming pool in their back gardens and use electricity to heat them.
The existing electric cable in the street would not have the capacity for all the extra electricity it was now being asked to provide as it was never designed for it, the nearest sub station would likely blow a fuse as soon as all the pool heaters are turned on. None of these cables or sub stations are owned or operated by National Grid, so when they say we have the capacity, they mean from the power stations, through the pylons etc running across the countryside, just not in the street outside your home.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Well obviously you must know more about it than the NG.. I bow to your degree in electrical engineering and distribution that you surely have and I don't.....or it could be just more anti EV properganda being repeated over and over... who knows!!!?
As it stands all houses have the capacity and feed in wire to handle 100 amps.... so about 7.5 sockets running flat out at 13 amps which is about 3000 watts each... which will never happen in s domestic property....after that the main fuse on your house will blow.... and you can't replace that yourself....ask me how I know! A granny cable is about 13 amp max......so unless every one fits high amp charger and the whole area charges at the same time .... and many EV drivers don't even charge weekly... it's a non issue.

 

[Doodle]

As it stands all houses have the capacity and feed in wire to handle 100 amps

But that assumes that the next level up the chain can support every property connected to it to maximum draw, which it can't. The capacity is planned with an assumption that everyone will draw an average amount most of the time, and some extra capacity to allow for the odd higher consumer or occasional peak load.

As an example, the substation that feeds our town currently has a max working capacity of 21MVA. If every house were to draw the 100A max suggested, that's just under 29KVA per house (23KW with a power factor of 0.8) meaning that 21MVA could only support 724 houses rather than the many thousands it does.

The home charger for my Zoe was a 7KW unit (9KVA) when running and I probably charged for an hour a day averaged over a week. Our normal usage without the charger (and we're probably at the higher end for a domestic property) is around 21kWh per day so an average load of 0.875kW (1.1KVA). Every time I fired up that charger it added the equivalent of another 8 houses to our existing distribution network.

 

[markjay]

I expect that people said at the time that switching from candlelight to electric lightbulbs was nonsense because if everyone switched on their Christmas tree lights all at once then the electric supply wouldn't be able to cope. And they were probably right - at the time.

 

[zipdip]

Well we do not have to worry about the national grid,we live in a age where we are not told the truth,I suppose that has always been the way even years ago,ordinary people are not given the facts,but we do have at the moment a headlong rush to achieve a green status,and it seems that truth and and anything approaching common sense is thrown out with the bath water.
Heat pumps,just how many older homes have had them fitted,I suspect not very many,but no real numbers,plenty of adverts,then we have the EV cars there is no point talking about their failings,we all know that the range and the fact companies are the main buyers and the depreciation is tragic,but where was the common sense when we have the NHS buying electric ambulances,or the Fire service buying EV fire engines,we do see large haulage companies buying a couple of token units ,and of course we have in use some EV buses,of all of those the bus is ok I suppose,if it conks out you get off,I suppose you can manually open the doors,and carry on your journey,but the ambulance and fire engines now that is a step too far,and the trucks,well put on short range jobs,they will never be able to turn a profit for their owners,for them the winter will be the big problem,even on short hauls,the driver will have the heater on,and also while waiting to load,I suppose no EV will have a night out,but if they did the heater on all night,well that could be one dead truck in the morning,even diesel trucks save guard being able to start in the morning,those night heaters do not use alot of diesel,but you must have more than 10% diesel in your tank or the heater will not work.
For me we have a very large number of clever people who have all bought into the kings suit of clothes and so are running around naked,a sight I would rather not see.

 

[rf065]

Well obviously you must know more about it than the NG.. I bow to your degree in electrical engineering and distribution that you surely have and I don't.....or it could be just more anti EV properganda being repeated over and over... who knows!!!?
As it stands all houses have the capacity and feed in wire to handle 100 amps.... so about 7.5 sockets running flat out at 13 amps which is about 3000 watts each... which will never happen in s domestic property....after that the main fuse on your house will blow.... and you can't replace that yourself....ask me how I know! A granny cable is about 13 amp max......so unless every one fits high amp charger and the whole area charges at the same time .... and many EV drivers don't even charge weekly... it's a non issue.

Worked in the utility industry for 42 years, many of them with National Grid, I must have learned something I hope.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Maybe.....but implying that having every equivalent house in the street (which would never happen at the same time) running just one socket at 13 amp flat out (the equivalent of a granny cable which most people would use and is all they would need) would push the grid beyond its limit makes me think otherwise!!!

 

[rf065]

Maybe.....but implying that having every equivalent house in the street (which would never happen at the same time) running just one socket at 13 amp flat out (the equivalent of a granny cable which most people would use and is all they would need) would push the grid beyond its limit makes me think otherwise!!!

Doesn't stop there though, next plan is to outlaw gas appliances and replace them all with electric ones. All still supplied from the same tiny cables that were installed years ago when we all used very little electricity. A bit like the victorian sewers and drainage systems that are now struggling to cope with modern living.

 

[ALFAitalia]

So that's another part time socket worth. I'm sure some old homes might have issues..... but by and large it's just anti EV types looking for potential issues.... along with range, fires, price etc, most of which will never affect the average EV driver. Also people are making assumptions that the Grid and the various electricity boards are sat on their butts doing nothing about any potential future issues... which I doubt they are.

 

[markjay]

Doesn't stop there though, next plan is to outlaw gas appliances and replace them all with electric ones. All still supplied from the same tiny cables that were installed years ago when we all used very little electricity. A bit like the victorian sewers and drainage systems that are now struggling to cope with modern living.

Given that it will take at least a couple of decades before the majority of ICE cars disappear from our roads, do you not think that the NG can be upgraded to meet the required capacity over time?

After all, this is exactly what's been gradually happening so far over the last century. Our power generating capacity has increased over the years. Why should this process stop now?

 

[st13phil]

Also people are making assumptions that the Grid and the various electricity boards are sat on their butts doing nothing about any potential future issues... which I doubt they are.

Which was rather the point of my post# 111 above, in which the linked article referenced the claim by the National Grid's Electricity Systems Operator that a further £60bn investment in cabling and distribution systems at grid level would be required by 2035 to meet the government’s decarbonisation targets. This is in addition to the £54bn of work already being carried out between now and £2030. Which neatly gives the lie to the statement that the grid (as is) can cope.

Then there's the small matter that without significant upgrading and additional capacity the local substation and distribution network won’t cope either, as pointed out by @rf065 and others in this thread.

 

[st13phil]

Our power generating capacity has increased over the years.

Unfortunately, due to lack of investment in base load generating capacity over the last few decades plus the decommissioning of coal-fired generation and the imminent end-of-life of our current Nuclear generation facilities, the reverse is true and we are now more reliant than ever on interconnectors to meet our peak demands.

 

[rf065]

Given that it will take at least a couple of decades before the majority of ICE cars disappear from our roads, do you not think that the NG can be upgraded to meet the required capacity over time?

After all, this is exactly what's been gradually happening so far over the last century. Our power generating capacity has increased over the years. Why should this process stop now?

National Grid are not the problem, they do not own or operate any plant in towns and cities, that's the private companies responsibility who are working in the same way as the water companies, ie profit first, just look at the water companies to see how it will end.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

But that assumes that the next level up the chain can support every property connected to it to maximum draw, which it can't. The capacity is planned with an assumption that everyone will draw an average amount most of the time, and some extra capacity to allow for the odd higher consumer or occasional peak load.

As an example, the substation that feeds our town currently has a max working capacity of 21MVA. If every house were to draw the 100A max suggested, that's just under 29KVA per house (23KW with a power factor of 0.8) meaning that 21MVA could only support 724 houses rather than the many thousands it does.

The home charger for my Zoe was a 7KW unit (9KVA) when running and I probably charged for an hour a day averaged over a week. Our normal usage without the charger (and we're probably at the higher end for a domestic property) is around 21kWh per day so an average load of 0.875kW (1.1KVA). Every time I fired up that charger it added the equivalent of another 8 houses to our existing distribution network.

If it was true the network would crash every morning and especially on Winter mornings

Grid capacity is planned to cope with the peaks. Most of the time the network is operating at a tiny fraction of its capacity

Which is part of the appeal of EVs which use batteries and energy from off peak charging. It’s drawing energy overnight or at least off peak

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

It’s worth repeating that the UK uses 23% less electrical power than it did at its peak in 2005.

Every year we upgrade our energy use, from bulbs to TV’s from heating to the effectiveness of insulation.

Absolute volume of of electricity used declines year on year, despite both population growth and new applications for electricity.

“The United Kingdom's electricity use has been in decline since peaking at 357 terawatt-hours in 2005. In 2022, the UK's electricity consumption fell to its lowest level this century, at 275.24 terawatt-hours.”

 

[st13phil]

It’s worth repeating that the UK uses 23% less electrical power than it did at its peak in 2005.

True enough.

I haven’t looked, but maybe someone could point me to a source of domestic and commercial gas consumption, in particular for heating purposes?

Logically, a good proportion of that energy use will transfer to electricity consumption as we are forced to move away from using gas, and my suspicion (unconfirmed) is that will more than reverse the reduction in electricity consumption over the last 20 years.