Are cars going to be reliable when they're old?

[PobodY]

^This. - Despite being obfuscated by the manufacturers, modern cars are actually quite good at letting you know what's wrong with them. In the past you'd take a guess based on where you thought the problem was (and/or what you'd seen before); now a good OBD tool points you at the right area to address the problem.

Yes, they probably are more disposable than say 50 years ago. - Just about everything is.

As time goes by, more pattern and generic parts appear; prices go down and repairs get cheaper.

There's not a whole lot going on within a car's ECU. - For this much air going in and the throttle this open, add so much fuel and adjust timing so many degrees. When coolant temperature below so many degrees, activate fast idle solenoid. When in closed loop, maintain this stoichiometry.

 

[David404]

And as time goes on cars get scrapped resulting in many 2nd hand parts appearing on the market many of which are perfectly serviceable and have many years of life in them.

Manufacturers do have an interest in 2nd hand values especially in the UK with many fleet buyers and now private punters using PCP and such. Low 2nd hand prices (especially at 1st ownership change, typically 1 - 3 years) = HIGH depreciation that has to be factored into monthly charges. an expensive car with good residual value can be cheaper than a cheaper car with poor residual. Back in the day when I was selling contract hire a BMW 5 series with higher new car cost then a Rover was cheaper in terms of monthly costs. As for Citroen, well lets just say we didn't have many on the fleet...

 

[190]

After 21 years running a 190e I had in hindsight become an absolute innocent and was genuinely shocked how unnecessarily complex new cars had become. At one time I was optimistic that the specialists independents and back street innovators would be able to work around most electronic engine management issues on old cars but I no longer believe that is sustainable because electronics have spread to so many other aspects of the car. I'm all for the improved driving experience of modern cars but wish they would leave out the sales driven gimmicks.

I would suggest the reduction in used values is already taking place. 20 years ago a 5 year old MB would be worth 50% of it's original purchase price but now that's more applicable to a 3 year old car.

The bottom line is that while the car works I'm happy but the first time I end up with a huge bill for something stupid like the electronic steering lock that will be the end of MB ownership for me.

It would be nice to think there will be a dynamically good modern car out there which is also simple enough to maintain economically. Wishful thinking though unless perhaps electric cars being inherently simpler in terms of the drive train turn out to be more reliable. Just think no DPF, no camshaft sprockets made out of cream cheese and no auto gearbox to go expensively wrong. They could produce a simple electric car but will they ?

 

[Deleted member 6183]

Are cars going to be reliable when they're old?

No.

They never were though to be fair.

 

[ioweddie]

I think the M/F build in failure modes as cars get older so they die at around 10 years old.
Hardly ever see the 1st generation focus or mondeo for example, they have not rusted away but most are uneconomic to repair

 

[Jonesy161]

Won't the very valid points being made on longevity eventually force (high end?) manufacturers to provide much longer warranties due to the potential log jam of second hand metal, and hence, depleting sales of new cars?

 

[Tim203]

Won't the very valid points being made on longevity eventually force (high end?) manufacturers to provide much longer warranties due to the potential log jam of second hand metal, and hence, depleting sales of new cars?

Longer warranties could be an answer and ensure more is done to prevent cars being disabled by electronic problems.
I, like others embrace new cars. Getting back into cars we drove years ago would make us realise the advances. However while safety is a priority these days the numerous driver aids could have a retrograde step of de- skilling a driver to a point where we are not better off.
Solid modelling and CAD/CAM have halved development times for new models but it really is a race to nothing, each manufacturer racing to get an advantage over his competitor. It does nothing for the environment but demand more energy, people are under more pressure to keep up with it all.
Apologies for repeating myself but I remember in Germany the governments scrappage scheme ( around 2003) coupled with the latest Euro norm and subsequent road tax penalties for keeping older cars going saw more perfectly good Benz's and Beemers slaughtered in one year than at any other time.
Maybe manufacturers should be controlled more on energy required to produce cars and balance that with a longevity/ reliability track record on parts required to keep vehicle going over a given period and tax accordingly. It could be a simple formula, easily computed and bring a new star rating to second hand vehicles . It would certainly cut through the false reliability that we are led to believe in.

 

[DavidL]

I was having this discussion with a well known restorer of a classic marque only yesterday. The conclusion seemed to be that yes they can be kept going but your workshop will resemble an electronics bay.
Bodywork is generally a huge leap forwards and welding is far less common. Mechanicals remain that but then they need electronically linking to your car so back to point one.
Equally there will always be that second tier of professionals who adapt and redesign the original parts and systems to keep them going. There is a company that fixes comand units and re programs keys at a fraction of a cost of MB for instance.
I think most will be able to be kept going if there is a desire to despite the manufacturers best efforts!

 

[Deleted member 6183]

It will all be OK.

Just switch off for 10 minutes and press the 'on' button.