The EV fact thread

[Bellow]

Why would you use renewable electricity to produce hydrogen which is then filled into a car and then converted back to electricity though? It’s nowhere near as cost effective nor ‘green’…

It makes more sense to just chuck the electricity straight into a battery in the car.

Hydrogen only makes sense for commercial applications where a 10 minute stop is actually detrimental, not to people who are visiting their friend 4 hours away but think a 10 minute stop is the end of the world.

Because although pile drivers are reluctant to concede the point, there are losses in recharging an EV's battery and losses in deploying the energy from the battery (or there'd not be a need for a cooling system). Both of those are 'conversion processes' and thus comparable to a FCV's conversion process.
And, to take Toyota's 95kg hydrogen tank as an example, it is still substantially lighter than half a ton (or more) of battery.

 

[Alfie]

With respect your profile says you own a W169 A class? Which is hardly the most beautiful Mercedes on the road in many peoples opinion.

See what I did there? Downplaying something on its looks is pointless as everyone has a different opinion on what looks ‘good’…

Says the man with a Tesla! Oh the irony.

Looks are a consideration as I wouldn't want to drive around advertising a total lack of taste.

I just dont get why the manufacturers, except Mercedes, dont make the EV's look like normal cars. Its as if they are saying we know you'll buy one because of your views so it makes no sense to spend a load of money designing something that looks great.

 

[BTB 500]

3. Cost of Vehicles and Fuel: Currently, hydrogen FCVs tend to be more expensive than BEVs, both in terms of initial cost and the cost of hydrogen fuel. While battery prices have been decreasing due to advances in technology and economies of scale, hydrogen production, storage, and distribution remain relatively expensive.

3.EV has the jump on hydrogen.

Not in terms of vehicle cost if comparing broadly similar vehicles. Both the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo have 400 mile WLTP ranges. AFAIK the only EVs that can match that are the Tesla Model S and Mercedes EQS, both of which cost a *lot* more. Approximate current prices:

Mirai - £65k
Nexo- £69k
Model S- £94k
EQS- £105k

Or to put it another way if you pick a BEV costing the same as a fuel cell car it will have a much lower range. Big batteries are expensive.

 

[Bellow]

I agree, however my point was that EV tech will very likely become much cheaper over time, in part because a significant proportion of the cost is software, and then there are also chips and other electronic bits which typically become cheaper over time, while it is very unlikely that the physical manufacturing cost of engines and transmissions will drop drastically in future.

£20-30k of software - really?

The comment I made earlier was that in time EV manufacturing costs will plummet below those of ICE cars, which will be the last blow to ICE tech - and this is why I don't believe that any car with an engine made of highly-machined block of metal alloy and complex automatic transmission has a long-term future, regardless of whether it burns fossil fuel, biofuel, or Hydrogen.

We've covered this but clearly you cannot or will not move beyond diesel and the requisite transmission it requires.

To demonstrate the point, I posted a couple of years ago about a YouTube clip showing an American farmer who bought and imported into the US a Chinese EV mini-truck, the base cost was $2,000, and although with extended battery, tilting load bed, and some optional creature comforts, plus packaging in a wood crate and shipping, the final cost to him was nearer the $7,000 mark, it is still remarkably cheap. The car obviously does not meet any Western regulations and can only be driven around the farm, but the point is that by using existing technologies where no R&D is required and there are no royalties to pay, the actual manufacturing cost of EVs can become very very low.

Cheap more because of it's minimalist construction (less content) than any bypassing of R&D and royalties.

 

[Dryce]

The comment I made earlier was that in time EV manufacturing costs will plummet below those of ICE cars, which will be the last blow to ICE tech - and this is why I don't believe that any car with an engine made of highly-machined block of metal alloy and complex automatic transmission has a long-term future, regardless of whether it burns fossil fuel, biofuel, or Hydrogen.

Tesla S is now around 12 years since launch.

It was a big step - but also in terms of some of the misplaced optimism on pricing. Prior to its launch and finalisation of prices there was a lot of optimism that it was that big step to normalise BEVs in the mainstream against large family saloons.,

There is no way prior to the Tesla S launch that I would have assumed that we would be having these sorts of discussions in 2024 had it met those early price expectations. The assumption was that if the Tesla S was all it was cracked up to be then we'd have a much larger number of mainstream BEVs.

And your point "don't believe that any car with an engine made of highly-machined block of metal alloy and complex automatic transmission has a long-term future" if looked at in current terms is a searing indictment of the failure of BEVs to capitalise on their own strengths vs their weaknesses. You are right in that there is now way such a complex machine as a modern mainstream ICE should compete with a BEV. Except that they do - and worse we have hybrids that are in principle even more complex than plain old fashioned ICE vehicles - and hybrids seem to be outselling pure BEVs.

So what happens now? More regulation and subsidy to support the BEVs that can't otherwise compete sufficiently against more complex ICE and hybrid products? Or do we see some sort of shift in product strategy and market acceptance. Or .... do we have the BEV knight in shining armour appear in the form of a battery technology that resolves the real or perceived problems with battery cost weight and vehicle range?

Obviously battery technology is the great hope - but if some new technology appears that gains customer confidence then it also potentially messes with the market in other ways. (We just can't win!!)

 

[Bellow]

Not in terms of vehicle cost if comparing broadly similar vehicles. Both the Toyota Mirai and Hyundai Nexo have 400 mile WLTP ranges. AFAIK the only EVs that can match that are the Tesla Model S and Mercedes EQS, both of which cost a *lot* more. Approximate current prices:

Mirai - £65k
Nexo- £69k
Model S- £94k
EQS- £105k

Or to put it another way if you pick a BEV costing the same as a fuel cell car it will have a much lower range. Big batteries are expensive.

FCs are expensive - the necessary platinum bumps up the cost. And, we need to remember that the Mirai is (in Autocar's estimation) heavily subsidised. Don't know enough about the Nexo to comment but fair play to Hyundai if it can turn a profit providing 400 miles of range for £69k.
Safe to say that any deviation from ICE that seeks to maximise range is very expensive.

 

[markjay]

Cheap more because of it's minimalist construction (less content) than any bypassing of R&D and royalties.

My point is that they could not have sold it for $2,000 with an ICE engine and transmission, not even with minimalist construction.

Just top give a sense of proportion, $2,000 is the equivalent of what you would in the UK to have the timing gear replaced on an M271 engine.

And don't forget that even at $2,000, the manufacturer has made a profit on it....

This level of cost reduction is simply not possible with ICE.

Have a look for yourself:

Last year I bought a $2,000 electric mini-pickup truck from China. Here's how it's holding up

I bought my electric mini-truck from China nearly a year ago, and so far it's been holding up great. Here's what I used it for on the ranch.

electrek.co

Also:
"We generally recharge the truck every couple weeks, and it theoretically has a range of around 50 miles (80 km) or more. But since the truck is used entirely off-road around the property, it just doesn’t go that far and range has never been an issue."

I guess not everyone needs 300+ miles WLTP range.....

 

[markjay]

£20-30k of software - really?

Software isn't just lines of codes running on your PC. Every chip has software that was developed by programmers. Some types of code take decades of man-years to develop. Once the R&D has been paid off, the actual cost of manufacturing the chips is relatively small.

'£20-30k' is irrelevant - if a single customer was charged the full cost of the software in all components of the car, it would be many millions of dollars, the point is that the manufacturers in every tier along the way decide how much they want to charge per unit based on their estimate of how many units they will manage to sell, and within what time frame, before the investment has been paid off.

This sort of economics do not apply when your main cost is CNC machines and expert labour force to operate it.

 

[Dryce]

Safe to say that any deviation from ICE that seeks to maximise range is very expensive.

Cars are also odd products. Most vehicles I see out and about have one or two occupants. But we expect a typical car to have seating for 5 occupants and 4 doors. Similarly boot capacity might be important - but again most cars are probably travelling about with empty boots.

Maybe we need to rethink. Brutally regulate the market so that we maybe have smaller 5 seat BEV cars with no luggage space and a range of maybe 125 miles. Allow for 5 occupants to provide a safety cell but keep it small by basically having to trade luggage space against rear occupants.

Get drivers to accept range extending luggage trailer as an add on for longer trips or extra luggage capacity. You take your normal runabout -fine for day to day use and occasionally hauling a bit of stuff with at most two occupants - and attach a small trailer with battery and luggage compartment for longer trips or trips that require luggage capacity. These could be rented for those only needing them for occasional trips. We end up with smaller more efficient BEVs in daily use - but with the option of extending capacity and range where needed.

 

[Bellow]

My point is that they could not have sold it for $2,000 with an ICE engine and transmission, not even with minimalist construction.

Just top give a sense of proportion, $2,000 is the equivalent of what you would in the UK to have the timing gear replaced on an M271 engine.

And don't forget that even at $2,000, the manufacturer has made a profit on it....

This level of cost reduction is simply not possible with ICE.

Have a look for yourself:

A lawn mower engine in that truck would be as cheap as chips.
If ICE and its transmission is so expensive, how is that an EV without that costs tens of thousands of pounds more to buy?

 

[clk320x]

Looks are a consideration as I wouldn't want to drive around advertising a total lack of taste.

but you do that when you drive around in your W169?

P.S. I can’t see what’s so different about the Mercedes EV styling wise that makes it look anymore ‘normal’ than a Tesla.

 

[markjay]

Tesla S is now around 12 years since launch.

It was a big step - but also in terms of some of the misplaced optimism on pricing.

It is possible to be overoptimistic in almost every area of life - and this will inevitably lead to disappointment.

However, the facts are that the first Tesla cost over $100,000 at launch back in 2011 for the most basic model available at the time. That's around $140,000, in today's money.

Today, you can get a brand new entry-level Tesla EV in the US for shy over $40,000.

Not sure what people's expectations were regarding price, but to my mind, Elon Musk is on the money here, delivering a cheaper EV as promised.

 

[markjay]

A lawn mower engine in that truck would be as cheap as chips.
If ICE and its transmission is so expensive, how is that an EV without that costs tens of thousands of pounds more to buy?

Simple: Massive R&D costs. All along the way, incorporated into each chip or electric component bought from each subcontractor.

Do you know how much Apple invest in developing the next generation of iPhone every year? And do you know how much does it actually cost to make the device, selling for over £1,000? A fraction of the retail price. This is how Apple pay back the cost of the thousands of developers that they employ. They charge a massive margin on the finished product. If they really wanted to, they could sell the device at 'cost' - that is actual manufacturing cost - at under $100. On the other hand, if you asked Apple to make a new custom type of device just for you, would be paying a seven-figure sum for just one handset.

 

[Dryce]

Not sure what people's expectations were regarding price, but to my mind, Elon Musk is on the money here, delivering a cheaper EV as promised.

Before the Tesla S was launched and Tesla were taking deposits and the final price was not confirmed for the S there were some very strong views being asserted in these forums that a basic Tesla S would sell for something close to $30000 in US and an expectation that this would be translated to somewhere above £30K. And I think there were investors who were looking at Tesla thinking the same sort of game changing on pricing.

This hype has largely been forgotten.

A few years after that we had lots of talk about self driving cars - again quite a bit of hype - largely forgotten,

So no they are not on the money regarding that implied promise. Yes. Tesla have actually been remarkable. But at a price.

And after all that time we are where we are. The market for a nice BEV is essentially up market. There is no BEV Ford Focus - ie. an affordable mid size family car that is desirable, practical, well engineered, desirable, capable, ubiquitous - that sets a benchmark in the market place.

We do have the Tesla Model 3 which I would argue is the nearest to some of that definition - but in a different market sector.

 

[markjay]

And after all that time we are where we are. The market for a nice BEV is essentially up market. There is no BEV Ford Focus - ie. an affordable mid size family car that is desirable, practical, well engineered, desirable, capable, ubiquitous - that sets a benchmark in the market place.

That's where MG and Dacia come in.

They don't have Ford Focus-level demand, that is true, but in part it is probably due to the fact that the EV market is being largely driven by business users, who - as we all know - are likely to opt for the more expensive variants due to the low impact on their monthly net cost figure. "Would Sir like the AWD model, with 4sec 0-60, for an additional £30 per month, pre-tax?" Etc.

 

[190]

There is now a small account of sick in my mouth.... what an ugly thing. And it manages to achieve that ugliness from every angle, both inside and out...quite an achievement.
Before anyone says, yes I know beauty is in the eye...etc... but that's my opinion...horrid.

I agree there are many ugly EV's but I'm reasonably taken with this for a small car. Of course it's just a Peugeot e208 in a sharp Italian suit but it will be non the worse for that.

Some more pics in the link below including a classy interior

Official: Lancia Ypsilon reborn as EV supermini with 250-mile range | Autocar

 

[SmartAmg]

I agree there are many ugly EV's but I'm reasonably taken with this for a small car. Of course it's just a Peugeot e208 in a sharp Italian suit but it will be non the worse for that.

Some more pics in the link below including a classy interior

Official: Lancia Ypsilon reborn as EV supermini with 250-mile range | Autocar

View attachment 153215

Sh1te! Just thought I'd join in, that every EV must be sh1t. Seriously though that's nice.

 

[markjay]

I agree there are many ugly EV's but I'm reasonably taken with this for a small car. Of course it's just a Peugeot e208 in a sharp Italian suit but it will be non the worse for that.

Some more pics in the link below including a classy interior

Official: Lancia Ypsilon reborn as EV supermini with 250-mile range | Autocar

View attachment 153215

€40k, apparently.

 

[davymead]

Chinese electric cars may come under scrutiny in the UK

Trade Remedies Authority says it’s watching for evidence of price-fixing in Chinese electric cars.

www.driving.co.uk

 

[markjay]

Chinese electric cars may come under scrutiny in the UK

Trade Remedies Authority says it’s watching for evidence of price-fixing in Chinese electric cars.

www.driving.co.uk

That's a serious concern, and it's not new. I posted a while ago regarding the China Development Bank (CDB), a government owned bank with virtually limitless budget who provide unrealistically cheap finance to Chinese businesses who are willing to flood the West with cheap goods.