The EV fact thread

[Dryce]

How does this compare to the manufacturing and maintenance costs of a 9-speed automatic transmission....?

The problem with EVs at the moment is that it doesn't really matter currently.

If you look at where the money goes - well a ICE has a fuel tank that is some shaped metal with space inside - and a BEV uses a heavy expensive dense battery. OTOH the ICE car has a heavy and complex engine and transmission whereas a EV has a simpler setup with one or more motors and some final drives. We're seeing hybrids - which are more expensive than a plain ICE looking more attractive in the market than BEVs.

The current reality is that an ICE *with* that 9 speed transmission is likely cheaper than the equivalent standard of BEV in the market. I can recall discussion a while back about costs of EV drive train and associated maintenance - and the general assumption was it was (or should naturally be) lighter and cheaper. When Tesla kicked off there was a belief / hope that the Tesla S would be rather more of a game changer on price. The reality is that the Tesla S is a premium model and even the lower down Model 3 is quite expensive.

 

[davymead]

I have to say that the IONIQ 5, and the IONIQ 7 / EV 9, and the Cybertruck, are all examples of a bold design, and this should be encouraged.

The car industry has been churning out identical-looking cars for decades now, and without the occasional bold design we wouldn't have many of the cars we have today.

Even when the result is a flop, the only way forward (as Elon Musk would say), is to keep trying and not being afraid of failure.

For this alone, Hyundai/Kia and Tesla deserve to be applauded, in my view.

Mark if we both lived in Timbuktu, I’d definitely be buying sand from you.

 

[philnewmerc]

All this discussion is very fascinating and I've learnt a lot. One of the things I've learnt is that instead of politicians deciding that the best engineering solution is for all cars to be EV would have been a simple metric: The car you manufacture should emit less than x grams of co2 over its life of eg 100K miles or 15 years. This is to include every single aspect of CO2 emission from factory to shipping to driving. If that means EV is the solution then great, if that means that some manufacturer can find a way of getting 1,000 MPG, then that's great too. Trusting politicians to get engineering questions correct has been done before with the rush to diesel...

 

[BTB 500]

Honda and General Motors have now started commercial production of automotive hydrogen fuel cells, which they've been jointly developing since 2017. Honda are unveiling a fuel cell powered CR-V next month, and are working with Isuzu on a large fuel cell HGV:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/honda-gm-fuel-cell-venture-launches-commercial-production-2024-01-25/

 

[Bellow]

More on hydrogen here >> https://insights.globalspec.com/art...156804&itemid=395149&frmtrk=newsletter&cid=nl

Light aviation in this case.

 

[clk320x]

In terms of personal transportation, I see no real use case where Hydrogen would be better than BEVs.

BEVs ‘win’ across multiple different areas:

1. Energy Efficiency: BEVs are significantly more energy-efficient than hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). The process of powering an FCV involves several energy conversion steps - from electricity to hydrogen and then hydrogen back to electricity - each step incurs energy losses. BEVs, on the other hand, use electricity directly, resulting in a more efficient process from power source to motion.

2. Infrastructure: The infrastructure for charging BEVs is more developed and continues to expand rapidly. In contrast, hydrogen refueling stations are more expensive to build and less common, making hydrogen less accessible for the average consumer.

3. Cost of Vehicles and Fuel: Currently, hydrogen FCVs tend to be more expensive than BEVs, both in terms of initial cost and the cost of hydrogen fuel. While battery prices have been decreasing due to advances in technology and economies of scale, hydrogen production, storage, and distribution remain relatively expensive.

4. Energy Source and Production: Most commercially produced hydrogen is derived from natural gas, a fossil fuel, through a process called steam methane reforming (SMR) which releases carbon dioxide. While it's possible to produce hydrogen using renewable energy through water electrolysis, this method is more expensive and less common. BEVs can be powered by a cleaner mix of renewable energy sources more readily available on the electric grid.

5. Consumer Adoption and Vehicle Availability: There's a wider variety of BEVs available across different market segments compared to hydrogen vehicles. This variety, along with a growing charging network, has helped BEVs gain significant consumer adoption worldwide.

6. Battery Technology Advances: Rapid advancements in battery technology, including improvements in energy density, charging speed, and lifespan, as well as reductions in cost, have made BEVs more practical for a wider range of uses. Innovations such as solid-state batteries could further enhance these advantages.

However, hydrogen has potential advantages and use cases where it might be more suitable than batteries, particularly for heavy transport (like trucks, buses, and even ships and planes) and in areas where rapid refueling is crucial or where battery weight is a significant drawback. The future of sustainable transportation is likely to be multi-faceted, with both technologies playing roles in different sectors. The extent to which hydrogen will be part of the transportation mix depends on overcoming the current challenges and the evolution of global energy systems towards more sustainable practices.

 

[Bellow]

The effect of cold weather on range. Where does the charge go that cannot be accessed for range? Is it recoverable at the next recharge (ie, draws less charge to attain the desired charge level) or is it lost forever?

 

[MeQ]

The effect of cold weather on range. Where does the charge go that cannot be accessed for range? Is it recoverable at the next recharge (ie, draws less charge to attain the desired charge level) or is it lost forever?

When you use air con in an ICE is the reduced mileage recovered the next time you fill up?

 

[clk320x]

When you use air con in an ICE is the reduced mileage recovered the next time you fill up?

I thought the same.

 

[BTB 500]

In terms of personal transportation, I see no real use case where Hydrogen would be better than BEVs.

BEVs ‘win’ across multiple different areas:

Some valid points, but a few things to bear in mind.

First I suspect for equivalent range a BEV works out significantly heavier (e.g. 1900 kg for a Mirai with a 400 mile range vs 2200 kg or so for a Model S), which must affect efficiency. There's also the 20% or so power lost in charging, and the drop in performance/range in cold conditions. Fuel cells also produce waste heat (like an ICE), providing 'free' heating for the vehicle whenever required.

Vehicle cost - I'm not sure about this, again if compared with an EV giving the same range.

I don't think battery technology really has improved much in the last 20 years (since Li cells entered mainstream use). There have been small gains in energy density and power delivery, and charge rates (partly via better charge management e.g. cooling). But in general EV range has been increased simply by fitting bigger and heavier batteries. We need a major breakthrough in battery technology (equivalent to the change from NiCd / NiMH to Li) to deliver real benefits.

Obviously charging a battery is far slower than filling a hydrogen tank.

 

[Bellow]

When you use air con in an ICE is the reduced mileage recovered the next time you fill up?

I'm not referring to HVAC. I'm asking about the deterioration in battery performance in reduced temperatures.

 

[Alfie]

Yeah, clearly no one buys Tesla’s, I never see any on the road.

Yep, I see them and there will always be those who buy ugly cars.

 

[MeQ]

I'm not referring to HVAC. I'm asking about the deterioration in battery performance in reduced temperatures.

My point was driving conditions reduce range that is unrecoverable in both ICE and EV. Temperature just happens to be one of those conditions.

 

[Bellow]

1. Energy Efficiency: BEVs are significantly more energy-efficient than hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). The process of powering an FCV involves several energy conversion steps - from electricity to hydrogen and then hydrogen back to electricity - each step incurs energy losses. BEVs, on the other hand, use electricity directly, resulting in a more efficient process from power source to motion.

2. Infrastructure: The infrastructure for charging BEVs is more developed and continues to expand rapidly. In contrast, hydrogen refueling stations are more expensive to build and less common, making hydrogen less accessible for the average consumer.

3. Cost of Vehicles and Fuel: Currently, hydrogen FCVs tend to be more expensive than BEVs, both in terms of initial cost and the cost of hydrogen fuel. While battery prices have been decreasing due to advances in technology and economies of scale, hydrogen production, storage, and distribution remain relatively expensive.

4. Energy Source and Production: Most commercially produced hydrogen is derived from natural gas, a fossil fuel, through a process called steam methane reforming (SMR) which releases carbon dioxide. While it's possible to produce hydrogen using renewable energy through water electrolysis, this method is more expensive and less common. BEVs can be powered by a cleaner mix of renewable energy sources more readily available on the electric grid.

5. Consumer Adoption and Vehicle Availability: There's a wider variety of BEVs available across different market segments compared to hydrogen vehicles. This variety, along with a growing charging network, has helped BEVs gain significant consumer adoption worldwide.

6. Battery Technology Advances: Rapid advancements in battery technology, including improvements in energy density, charging speed, and lifespan, as well as reductions in cost, have made BEVs more practical for a wider range of uses. Innovations such as solid-state batteries could further enhance these advantages.

1. As mentioned by BTB500, the charging losses for EVs needs to be considered. Ditto the losses in high speed recharging (those buffering batteries will have charging losses also) and if cold weather loss is absolute - that too.
2.EV has the jump on hydrogen.
3.EV has the jump on hydrogen.
4.Renewably generated electricity can be used for EVs of hydrogen production. Stealing it all for EVs then accusing hydrogen production of being 'un-green' doesn't wash. In any case, here in the UK not all electricity is generated renewably so that argument in favour of EV is conditional on circumstances which are not always present.
5.EV has the jump on hydrogen.
6. Waiting waiting waiting waiting....

 

[Bellow]

My point was driving conditions reduce range that is unrecoverable in both ICE and EV. Temperature just happens to be one of those conditions.

Thank you - we have the answer then.
We need to add cold weather losses to the recharging losses to ascertain the true energy efficiency of EVs.
15% here, 20% there soon adds up.

 

[clk320x]

Thank you - we have the answer then.
We need to add cold weather losses to the recharging losses to ascertain the true energy efficiency of EVs.
15% here, 20% there soon adds up.

On my car, when the battery is cold , a small proportion of energy is shown as ‘blue/locked’ - this becomes accessible again once warmed up. So indeed it’s not ‘disappeared’.

 

[clk320x]

4.Renewably generated electricity can be used for EVs of hydrogen production. Stealing it all for EVs then accusing hydrogen production of being 'un-green' doesn't wash. In any case, here in the UK not all electricity is generated renewably so that argument in favour of EV is conditional on circumstances which are not always present.

Why would you use renewable electricity to produce hydrogen which is then filled into a car and then converted back to electricity though? It’s nowhere near as cost effective nor ‘green’…

It makes more sense to just chuck the electricity straight into a battery in the car.

Hydrogen only makes sense for commercial applications where a 10 minute stop is actually detrimental, not to people who are visiting their friend 4 hours away but think a 10 minute stop is the end of the world.

 

[clk320x]

Yep, I see them and there will always be those who buy ugly cars.

With respect your profile says you own a W169 A class? Which is hardly the most beautiful Mercedes on the road in many peoples opinion.

See what I did there? Downplaying something on its looks is pointless as everyone has a different opinion on what looks ‘good’…

 

[markjay]

The current reality is that an ICE *with* that 9 speed transmission is likely cheaper than the equivalent standard of BEV in the market. I can recall discussion a while back about costs of EV drive train and associated maintenance - and the general assumption was it was (or should naturally be) lighter and cheaper. When Tesla kicked off there was a belief / hope that the Tesla S would be rather more of a game changer on price. The reality is that the Tesla S is a premium model and even the lower down Model 3 is quite expensive.

I agree, however my point was that EV tech will very likely become much cheaper over time, in part because a significant proportion of the cost is software, and then there are also chips and other electronic bits which typically become cheaper over time, while it is very unlikely that the physical manufacturing cost of engines and transmissions will drop drastically in future.

The comment I made earlier was that in time EV manufacturing costs will plummet below those of ICE cars, which will be the last blow to ICE tech - and this is why I don't believe that any car with an engine made of highly-machined block of metal alloy and complex automatic transmission has a long-term future, regardless of whether it burns fossil fuel, biofuel, or Hydrogen.

To demonstrate the point, I posted a couple of years ago about a YouTube clip showing an American farmer who bought and imported into the US a Chinese EV mini-truck, the base cost was $2,000, and although with extended battery, tilting load bed, and some optional creature comforts, plus packaging in a wood crate and shipping, the final cost to him was nearer the $7,000 mark, it is still remarkably cheap. The car obviously does not meet any Western regulations and can only be driven around the farm, but the point is that by using existing technologies where no R&D is required and there are no royalties to pay, the actual manufacturing cost of EVs can become very very low.

 

[Bellow]

On my car, when the battery is cold , a small proportion of energy is shown as ‘blue/locked’ - this becomes accessible again once warmed up. So indeed it’s not ‘disappeared’.

If available when warmed - why are ranges reduced in cold weather (beyond that drawn for cabin heating, etc)?