The EV fact thread

[BTB 500]

Forget electric vans, the future is hydrogen | Auto Express

Mike Rutherford wonders why the demand for electric vans is plummeting in the UK

www.autoexpress.co.uk

Renault are launching a new hydrogen fuel cell van next year:

Renault Master H2-Tech Prototype is the hydrogen van of the future | Auto Express

A range of 434 miles will be available on the hydrogen-powered Renault Master

www.autoexpress.co.uk

https://media.renaultgroup.com/iaa-transportation-hanover-2024-hyvia-unveils-the-prototype-of-the-hydrogen-version-of-the-new-master-best-in-class-with-700-km-range-and-5-minutes-refueling-time/?lang=eng

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Forget electric vans, the future is hydrogen | Auto Express

Mike Rutherford wonders why the demand for electric vans is plummeting in the UK

www.autoexpress.co.uk

Renault are launching a new hydrogen fuel cell van next year:

Renault Master H2-Tech Prototype is the hydrogen van of the future | Auto Express

A range of 434 miles will be available on the hydrogen-powered Renault Master

www.autoexpress.co.uk

https://media.renaultgroup.com/iaa-transportation-hanover-2024-hyvia-unveils-the-prototype-of-the-hydrogen-version-of-the-new-master-best-in-class-with-700-km-range-and-5-minutes-refueling-time/?lang=eng

You don’t have to be a genius to work out why sales are 40% less in the period from January to August 2024 compared to January to August 2023 - the UK Government announced that the date changed from 2030 to 2035 in September 2023.

Great to see hydrogen vans coming to market. Let’s hope that it increases demand enough to accelerate expansion of the hydrogen network. If not then the lack of infrastructure could be cited as the reason not to buy hydrogen like has been for BEV.

 

[BTB 500]

You don’t have to be a genius to work out why sales are 40% less in the period from January to August 2024 compared to January to August 2023 - the UK Government announced that the date changed from 2030 to 2035 in September 2023.

Those government deadlines were only for new vehicle sales though ... in 2023 buyers were still looking at being able to get new diesel vans for the next 6/7 years (longer than most companies keep them).

My theory is that many (most?) of the users for whom the current generation of electric vans work have already got them (thanks to the various incentive schemes & discounts), hence the market is essentially saturated and sales have dropped off. That will likely change of course as battery technology evolves.

 

[clk320x]

Time to open a hydrogen vehicle thread?

 

[BTB 500]

Time to open a hydrogen vehicle thread?

Maybe. Essentially fuel cell vehicles are hybrids - just like a BEV they have a battery that drives the electric motor(s), but this is charged on board (by the fuel cell) rather than from an external electrical supply.

 

[clk320x]

New Geotab data highlights how EV batteries can last 20 years or more

Business News This Week is a leading business news portal covering business news weekly for your business. Business news weekly

businessnewsthisweek.com

 

[BTB 500]

New Geotab data highlights how EV batteries can last 20 years or more

Business News This Week is a leading business news portal covering business news weekly for your business. Business news weekly

businessnewsthisweek.com

That report only addresses gradual loss of capacity over time, which is not actually a failure mode (where a pack is no longer usable because the BMS detects individual cells that have failed or gone seriously out of balance).

Yes after 20 years the capacity might theoretically have dropped by 36% (based on the big assumption that the degradation rate of the latest cell types will remain constant for year after year), but the chances are the vehicle will have thrown a pack error due to individual cell failure(s) long before that.

And produced by a company that sells fleet telematics solutions the 'report' looks more like a marketing exercise than an independent study:

Accurate state-of-health information, made possible by comprehensive telematics data, is key to helping people make the best use of electric vehicles. Telematics data insights, which can be found in Geotab’s EV Battery Health report, allows fleets to know the real battery capacity of their EVs, understand the rate of degradation and get the most value throughout their life-cycle.

 

[KillerHERTZ]

Just back from driving 2500km across and around Andalusia and like Prague earlier this year, I saw maybe 3-4 EVs entire time.

 

[markjay]

That report only addresses gradual loss of capacity over time, which is not actually a failure mode (where a pack is no longer usable because the BMS detects individual cells that have failed or gone seriously out of balance).

Yes after 20 years the capacity might theoretically have dropped by 36% (based on the big assumption that the degradation rate of the latest cell types will remain constant for year after year), but the chances are the vehicle will have thrown a pack error due to individual cell failure(s) long before that.

And produced by a company that sells fleet telematics solutions the 'report' looks more like a marketing exercise than an independent study:

The average lifetime of a car in the UK is around 17 years, my guess is that EVs will have sorter life spans, not because of the battery as such, but because electric and electronic tech move much faster than mechanical tech.

E.g., MB comes out with a new engine once every 5 to 7 years, while Intel releases a new processor every year. The desirability of mechanical hardware goes down at a much lower pace that that of phones, laptops, TVs, etc.

I think that the depreciation curve of an EV will be steep, simply because of the diminishing desirability factor, and even before considering practical issues such as battery etc.

 

[Petrol Pete]

Jesus Wept, Why are we even comparing Cancer, a horrible disease. To a ****ing EV battery. Which idiot started this nonsense.

Elon Musk

 

[Skd884]

250k miles in 1.5 years

A Tesla Semi has already traveled 250,000 miles: here's what we learned about the electric truck

We learned a lot about Tesla Semi thanks to a new presentation from the head of the electric truck program...

electrek.co

 

[BTB 500]

The average lifetime of a car in the UK is around 17 years, my guess is that EVs will have sorter life spans, not because of the battery as such, but because electric and electronic tech move much faster than mechanical tech.

E.g., MB comes out with a new engine once every 5 to 7 years, while Intel releases a new processor every year. The desirability of mechanical hardware goes down at a much lower pace that that of phones, laptops, TVs, etc.

I think that the depreciation curve of an EV will be steep, simply because of the diminishing desirability factor, and even before considering practical issues such as battery etc.

Agree with all of that, although of course an average lifespan of 17 years means many cars are used for much longer.

The fundamental issue with battery life though is that packs contain many thousands of small, mass-produced cells (connected in series to get the required voltage, and then in parallel to get the capacity). These will all slowly degrade with age/usage, but inevitably a few will eventually fail while the vast majority are still fine. Hence the growing trend for 'battery repair' companies who address this rather than the normal/expected gradual loss of capacity with age. Unfortunately though replacing cells (or more likely 'modules' ... groups of cells) with ones that have a different age/usage history to the rest of the pack isn't ideal as they won't perform identically in terms of resistance & capacity. And of course if a few of the original cells have failed then others may not be far behind. This is why vehicle manufacturers will only swap out the whole battery for a new one (at huge cost), and why repair companies typically don't give much (or even any) warranty on a pack afterwards.

 

[BTB 500]

250k miles in 1.5 years

A Tesla Semi has already traveled 250,000 miles: here's what we learned about the electric truck

We learned a lot about Tesla Semi thanks to a new presentation from the head of the electric truck program...

electrek.co

Interesting, but a very small pilot with only 100 vehicles. At least one of which came to a sticky end of course:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/13/tesla-semi-fire-needed-50000-gallons-of-water-to-extinguish.html

 

[markjay]

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[Skd884]

EVs are less likely to be written off than petrols or diesels | Auto Express

New data shows ICE cars have been written off at twice the rate of electric cars since 2015

www.autoexpress.co.uk

 

[SmartAmg]

Just back from driving 2500km across and around Andalusia and like Prague earlier this year, I saw maybe 3-4 EVs entire time.

And your point is ?

 

[ToeKnee]

And your point is ?

That he's not very observant??

 

[markjay]

That he's not very observant??

Or that many EVs simply looks like ICE cars?

 

[Doodle]

EVs are less likely to be written off than petrols or diesels | Auto Express

New data shows ICE cars have been written off at twice the rate of electric cars since 2015

www.autoexpress.co.uk

Modern journalism 101:

Lead article by making authoritative statement based on a specific statistic.
Conclude article by saying that in fact there's too many variables to draw any meaningful conclusion from said statistic and that they need to understand what it means, thereby rendering aforementioned statement (and thus the entire article) to be utter bollocks.

 

[SmartAmg]

Modern journalism 101:

Lead article by making authoritative statement based on a specific statistic.
Conclude article by saying that in fact there's too many variables to draw any meaningful conclusion from said statistic and that they need to understand what it means, thereby rendering aforementioned statement (and thus the entire article) to be utter bollocks.

As are many/most anti-EV articles.