The EV fact thread

[Doodle]

As are many/most anti-EV articles.

Pretty sure this one was meant to be pro, although it didn't work out too well.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Modern journalism 101:

Lead article by making authoritative statement based on a specific statistic.
Conclude article by saying that in fact there's too many variables to draw any meaningful conclusion from said statistic and that they need to understand what it means, thereby rendering aforementioned statement (and thus the entire article) to be utter bollocks.

The final line is interesting: “…the stats also take no account of the arguably more significant ratio of claims that might typically end up as write-offs”

That reads like the journalist is saying we can’t yet be conclusive about the percentage of claims which result in a write off until we understand the ratio of claims which result in a right off!

 

[DaveE320CDI]

Germany suffers 70% drop in new electric car sales www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/germany-suffers-spectacular-70pc-drop-in-electric-car-sales/ar-AA1qPvDH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=0058366e727d40b38b07751b89792e95&ei=3

 

[BTB 500]

Germany suffers 70% drop in new electric car sales www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/germany-suffers-spectacular-70pc-drop-in-electric-car-sales/ar-AA1qPvDH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=NMTS&cvid=0058366e727d40b38b07751b89792e95&ei=3

Yup - this is what happens when the market isn't propped up with subsidies. It's bizarre that article didn't mention it, but there was a budget crisis in Germany in 2023 and they dropped all government incentives (for both companies and private owners) from the start of this year. Since 2016 they had spent 10 billion euros on supporting EVs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/germany-end-e-vehicle-subsidy-programme-2023-12-16/

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Worth noting that the big three German producers are all struggling with the World’s biggest and most important car market.

Mercedes are the latest to announce

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/mercedes-benz-lowers-annual-core-profit-forecast-after-china-sales-fall-2024-09-19/

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Yup - this is what happens when the market isn't propped up with subsidies. It's bizarre that article didn't mention it, but there was a budget crisis in Germany in 2023 and they dropped all government incentives (for both companies and private owners) from the start of this year. Since 2016 they had spent 10 billion euros on supporting EVs.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/germany-end-e-vehicle-subsidy-programme-2023-12-16/

Good prejudice, but if that were true, those jolly Germans would be buying diesels and petrol instead of EV’s but they aren’t.

The whole German economy has had a jolly good kick in the its differential, mainly by the most important Economy in the World, but generally as well.

The Traffic Light Coalition have completely lost the plot when faced with economic uncertainty. Times is Hard

Oh, and as anyone who has managed a bunch of cowboys / saleswomen knows, overanalysing individual months is a foolish mistake, because bigger forces are at play. (Preregistrations, sales targets, lobbying, compensation plans etc)


“Germany has suffered a “spectacular” drop in electric car sales as the European Union faces growing calls to delay its net zero vehicle targets.

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) said sales of new battery-powered electric vehicles (EV) in Germany plunged by nearly 70pc to 27,024 in August.

In France, the EU’s second largest market for battery electric vehicles behind Germany, deliveries fell by 33pc to 13,143.

ACEA said “the spectacular drop” in both countries meant that only 92,627 battery electric vehicles were registered across Europe last month, a fall of 43.9pc compared to a year earlier. This drove a wider 18pc drop in new car sales across the EU.

The collapse in EV sales comes amid concerns about their range, high prices and the lack of charging infrastructure across the EU.

Felipe Munoz, a global automotive analyst at JATO Dynamics, said: “The reality is that whether you look at business or private, electric vehicles do not convince yet.”

There are concerns about demand for EVs among British drivers too. Separate data showed that the growth rate of EV sales in the UK had dramatically slowed. “

 

[markjay]

Are we sure that the EV market isn't simply being dominated by far-Eastern manufacturers, pushing out the traditional European and American automakers? I don't hear the Korean, Chinese, or Japanese car manufacturers complaining about poorer-than-expected EV sales.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Are we sure that the EV market isn't simply being dominated by far-Eastern manufacturers, pushing out the traditional European and American automakers? I don't hear the Korean, Chinese, or Japanese car manufacturers complaining about poorer-than-expected EV sales.

Just look at the industry sales numbers (as presented by ACEA above) rather than the individual manufacturer sales stats (both domestic and global)

But, as I said, don't put too much trust in individual month numbers.

 

[BTB 500]

Good prejudice, but if that were true, those jolly Germans would be buying diesels and petrol instead of EV’s but they aren’t.

No, it seems they're buying hybrids instead (like the Brits)

Hybrid-electric vehicles are the only vehicle type that saw growth in August, with car registrations rising by 6.6% to 201,552 units. Three of the four largest markets for this segment recorded gains: Spain (+12.6%), France (+12.5%), and Italy (+2.5%), while Germany (-0.1%) remained stable. The hybrid-electric market share reached 31.3%, up from 24% in August 2023.

New car registrations: -18.3% in August 2024; BEV market share down by almost one third

In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%) with negative results across the region’s four major markets: double-digit losses were witnessed in Germany (-27.8%), France (-24.3%), and Italy (-13.4%), with the Spanish market declining by 6.5%.

www.acea.auto

 

[markjay]

No, it seems they're buying hybrids instead (like the Brits)

New car registrations: -18.3% in August 2024; BEV market share down by almost one third

In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%) with negative results across the region’s four major markets: double-digit losses were witnessed in Germany (-27.8%), France (-24.3%), and Italy (-13.4%), with the Spanish market declining by 6.5%.

www.acea.auto

"In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%)..... Hybrid-electric vehicles are the only vehicle type that saw growth in August, with car registrations rising by 6.6%..."

That's a remarkable achievement for Hybrid-electric vehicles.

One possible explanation is that the charging network in Europe is still not good enough? I.e., those who have access to chargers already bought (or leased) their BEV cars. The rest will only get a BEV once the charging network reaches them.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

"In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%)..... Hybrid-electric vehicles are the only vehicle type that saw growth in August, with car registrations rising by 6.6%..."

Thats a remarkable achievement for Hybrid-electric vehicles.

One possible explanation is that the charging network in Europe is still not good enough? I.e., those who have access to chargers already bought (or leased) their BEV cars. The rest will only buy a BEV once the charging network reaches them.

A more likely explanation is that diesels have been proven to be poisonous, unreliable and expensive to maintain,

while both petrol and diesel are out of fashion, despite petrol and diesel fuelling stations being all over Europe.

"In August 2024, petrol car sales dropped by 17.1%, all four key markets recording significant declines: France (‑36.6%), Italy (-18.8%), Spain (-17.4%), and Germany (-7.4%). Petrol cars now represent 33.1% of the market, down from 32.6% in August last year. The diesel car market saw a decline of 26.4%, resulting in a 11.2% share of the market last August. Double-digit decreases were observed in almost all European markets."


Once again, only someone who has never managed salespeople overanalyses one month's sales numbers, rather than quarterly or YTD.

The Manufacturers are playing a game against the EU and UK regulators on €15k penalties for not selling enough BEV's by year end. Do they sell BEV's at a loss, or hold back sales and force the EU to give up its €15k / unit fines?

 

[BTB 500]

Would be interesting to see YTD BEV sales for Germany (if I get time later I might see if I can find them anywhere). I still think the immediate cancellation of all government subsidies/incentives last December would have had quite an impact on sales (particularly fleet/business buyers), but I could be wrong.

I'm still staggered at the amount of funding they put into EVs. An average of over a billion Euros a year for 8 years seems insane - my wife (who is German) said a lot of that had gone into infrastructure e.g. charging sites (don't know if that is correct or not).

 

[Steveml63]

Hybrids are selling well - because the legacy auto makers can make a profit on these but cannot on EVs.
Hybrids are great when they are under warranty - but they are heavier & more complex than either a petrol/diesel vehicle or a full BEV.
It’s a cunning way for the legacy auto makers to delay implementing competitive EVs that they can make a decent profit on.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Would be interesting to see YTD BEV sales for Germany (if I get time later I might see if I can find them anywhere).

The BEV sales number is in the link you posted: 12.7% of all vehicle sales.

(Well short of the 18% EU target which we all knew that they didn't stand a cat in hell's chance of achieving)

New car registrations: -18.3% in August 2024; BEV market share down by almost one third

In August 2024, new EU car registrations saw a sharp decrease (-18.3%) with negative results across the region’s four major markets: double-digit losses were witnessed in Germany (-27.8%), France (-24.3%), and Italy (-13.4%), with the Spanish market declining by 6.5%.

www.acea.auto

Here are the unit sales numbers. (Not to be confused with production)

Germany - Flash report, Automotive sales volume, 2024 - MarkLines Automotive Industry Portal

German passenger car sales down 27.8% in August, EV down 68.8%, HV down 1.5%. The number of August new passenger car registrations in Germany was 197,322 units, down 27.8% from the same month last year, and the total sales for the first eight months of

www.marklines.com

 

[Bellow]

Hybrids are selling well - because the legacy auto makers can make a profit on these but cannot on EVs.

Sure it isn't down to customer preference?

Hybrids are great when they are under warranty - but they are heavier & more complex than either a petrol/diesel vehicle or a full BEV.

Hybrid heavier than full EV? Doubtful. Supporting data? More complex - I keep reading this assertion and while there's truth to it it ignores the fact the the ICE component is tried and proven (pure diesel with SCR is considerably more troublesome IMO) and the electrical element and integration is older than pure EV and thus has had more development time.

It’s a cunning way for the legacy auto makers to delay implementing competitive EVs that they can make a decent profit on.

Back to my first point - price follows demand and the public for whatever reasons aren't demanding EVs.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Would be interesting to see YTD BEV sales for Germany (if I get time later I might see if I can find them anywhere). I still think the immediate cancellation of all government subsidies/incentives last December would have had quite an impact on sales (particularly fleet/business buyers), but I could be wrong.

I'm still staggered at the amount of funding they put into EVs. An average of over a billion Euros a year for 8 years seems insane - my wife (who is German) said a lot of that had gone into infrastructure e.g. charging sites (don't know if that is correct or not).

A billion here, a billion there.... it takes a while before it's serious money.

Compared to €900 billion in tax revenues every year, just one billion is nothing.

 

[BTB 500]

The BEV sales number is in the link you posted: 12.7% of all vehicle sales.

It was a 2023 vs 2024 comparison I was after, but I hadn't noticed the chart on that page was interactive

As you say, the market share in Germany for BEVs from Jan-Aug was 12.7%. But for the same period in 2023 it was 18.6% - a huge drop, and my guess would still be that the sudden removal of all government subsidies in December 2023 played a large part in this. The market shares for PHEV, HEV, petrol and even diesel have all increased in Germany this year as a consequence.

(Well short of the 18% EU target which we all knew that they didn't stand a cat in hell's chance of achieving)

As above with the government incentives in place they were at 18.6% this time last year.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

It was a 2023 vs 2024 comparison I was after, but I hadn't noticed the chart on that page was interactive

As you say, the market share in Germany for BEVs from Jan-Aug was 12.7%. But for the same period in 2023 it was 18.6% - a huge drop, and my guess would still be that the sudden removal of all government subsidies in December 2023 played a large part in this. The market shares for PHEV, HEV, petrol and even diesel have all increased in Germany this year as a consequence.




As above with the government incentives in place they were at 18.6% this time last year.

Not helped by the German recession and the collapse of their export sales to China. Germany’s in a very bad way

 

[markjay]

Elon Musk believes in a 'level playing field', apparently:

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[Steveml63]

Sure it isn't down to customer preference?


Hybrid heavier than full EV? Doubtful. Supporting data? More complex - I keep reading this assertion and while there's truth to it it ignores the fact the the ICE component is tried and proven (pure diesel with SCR is considerably more troublesome IMO) and the electrical element and integration is older than pure EV and thus has had more development time.

Back to my first point - price follows demand and the public for whatever reasons aren't demanding EVs.

We are talking here on a Mercedes car enthusiast forum.
Most punters go into a car dealership and seek advice when buying a car.
The reason they are buying more hybrids will be the sales spin they are being told (and the generous support and commissions that the dealers are being offered by the manufacturers to push hybrid sales)
The average punter buys what the dealer pushes to them - so “customer preference” is a very subjective term, in this instance!