Cheap ride for EV users coming to an end ??

[markjay]

It would drive manufacturers to shift their products - and possibly to make EVs available that would have a genuine;y reduced whole life emissions impact.



The prices of EVs clearly contradict this statement. Unless there is profiteering going on.



And I have stated before there is clear evidence that this is not the case.

ICEs are inherently cheaper at this time. And that's with a huge penalty tax on fuel.




Possibly.

But it should be noted that modern cars are very reliable.

So in practical terms would an ordinary owner notice any difference?




A large EV with decent range carries 450kg + of batteries.




Two factors at work here: (1) the shift to Li-ion. (2) reduced power of mainstream electronics.

EVs already have the advantage of the first. Basic physics mitigates the second.



Except legislation and subsiidies are impacting the market now.



Poor analogy.

My starting point is the premise that electronic devices in general are cheaper to make, and are more reliable, than mechanical ones. This is because of the basic fact that the former have less moving parts than the latter. Hence my watch analogy.

I cannot see why this won't ultimately apply to cars, as I don't believe that they are the exception to the rule.

The key advantage that currently makes ICE cars cheaper and more reliable, is that they have been over 100 years in the making, while EVs are very new in comparison, meaning there's a considerable amount of R&D still going into EVs at this time and in the near future.

But ultimately, the design of an EV is far more simple than that of an ICE car. It would be interesting to hear the view of any mechanical engineers on this subject.

Aa for weight... when the 450kg of batteries are considered against the weight of an engine, transmission, diff, and a (full) fuel tank, you can see that there's not much left to bridge to bring down the overall weight of an EV into ICE territory.

You seem to be making the assumption that EV battery technology has gone as far as it ever would in respect to capacity-per-weight, after just 10 years. I respectfully disagree. We've gone a long very with ICE cars over the past 100 years, and we've only just started the journey with EVs.

 

[Wolfie1]

So using the above logic which is sound, 8 years is not long enough to come up with a decent ev model that we are all being forced into owning, and yes i understand there is a second hand market but the cost of replacing a battery, well that will just write a car off!

 

[BTB 500]

Aa for weight... when the 450kg of batteries are considered against the weight of an engine, transmission, diff, and a (full) fuel tank

The battery pack is only equivalent to the fuel tank though? Electric cars still have 'engine' and 'transmission' components ... these will be lighter than IC ones for sure, but not trivial enough to ignore:

• Motor(s)
• Drive shafts
• Gearbox (sometimes)
• Radiator/cooling circuit/pump (for batteries/motors)
• Charging unit
• Charge cables
• etc.

Watching 'Vintage Voltage' on TV (where they convert classic cars to electric) some of these seem quite hefty ... they certainly use hoists/jacks to install motors.

 

[markjay]

The battery pack is only equivalent to the fuel tank though? Electric cars still have 'engine' and 'transmission' components ... these will be lighter than IC ones for sure, but not trivial enough to ignore:

• Motor(s)
• Drive shafts
• Gearbox (sometimes)
• Radiator/cooling circuit/pump (for batteries/motors)
• Charging unit
• Charge cables
• etc.

Watching 'Vintage Voltage' on TV (where they convert classic cars to electric) some of these seem quite hefty ... they certainly use hoists/jacks to install motors.

All good points.

I would still argue that if you remove the battery and the fuel tank from the equation, an EV will be lighter than a similar-sized ICE car, so it's only a question of how much weight do we need to lose from the battery before EVs become lighter than ICE cars.

 

[whitenemesis]

All good points.

I would still argue that if you remove the battery and the fuel tank from the equation, an EV will be lighter than a similar-sized ICE car, so it's only a question of how much weight do we need to lose from the battery before EVs become lighter than ICE cars.

The big difference between the two is the battery pack always weights the same, whereas the petrol tank changes with fuel level.

 

[st13phil]

You seem to be making the assumption that EV battery technology has gone as far as it ever would in respect to capacity-per-weight, after just 10 years.

But it's not just 10 years of development: battery technology has been evolving for decades. I'm not saying it has evolved to the point where no further improvement is possible, but it's wrong to suggest that we're at the bottom end of the evolution curve.

The fundamental issues that need to be addressed regarding batteries for EV's are:

1. Poor energy density
2. The use of rare metals and minerals
3. Cost

#1 leads to size and mass problems; #2 is problematic due to limited availability and the ecological damage that extraction causes; #3 is driven largely by the first two.

In terms of the current EV population, the first two issues are effectively sunk costs, but the third is the real kicker as failure of the battery (whether through age or other cause) effectively kills the vehicle as it's uneconomic to fix it. From an environmental perspective - the big selling point of EV's - that's pretty catastrophic because the largest proportion of environmental damage comes not from usage, but the manufacturing phase and that ends up being amortised over a much shorter life than you would expect from an ICE vehicle.

EV's may be good at reducing local pollutants, but in every other respect - absent a quantum shift in battery technology - they are a dead end, imo.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

So using the above logic which is sound, 8 years is not long enough to come up with a decent ev model that we are all being forced into owning, and yes i understand there is a second hand market but the cost of replacing a battery, well that will just write a car off!

We’re not being forced to buy EVs though, are we?

Assuming there will be no change in policy or demand, then it will still be possible to buy cars with ICE engine cars - in hybrid form - until 2035, so 13 years from now.

Even then, there is nothing stopping us all continuing with our current cars. If we like our current cars more than new cars then surely we just continue using them.

If new EV sales stop overnight then both car manufacturers and Governenta will either change their strategy, or accept that car buying has changed forever.

Whether new or secondhand, on average I keep cars for 10 years and it’s no hardship. I do it because I like those cars more than the ones I could replace them with.

If I don’t like the cars of the future then I’ll just keep running my current ones until that’s no longer possible which is long enough from now to be of little concern.

 

[Tonye]

Even then, there is nothing stopping us all continuing with our current cars

Except you will have to fuel it up in China or Russia.

 

[ChipChop]

Except you will have to fuel it up in China or Russia.

Vegetable oil friendly diesel Mercedes will still be running. Anything pre CDI.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Except you will have to fuel it up in China or Russia.

How do you know all this stuff?

 

[Dryce]

Aa for weight... when the 450kg of batteries are considered against the weight of an engine, transmission, diff, and a (full) fuel tank, you can see that there's not much left to bridge to bring down the overall weight of an EV into ICE territory.

Fuel tanks are not kept continuously at 100% capacity.

Small modern turn engines and transmissions don't weight tha much. I have seen figurts as low as 120kg for an engine and transmission.

Whereas that 450kg is continuous and exclude the motors and drive shafts - and proably some heavy cabling.

You seem to be making the assumption that EV battery technology has gone as far as it ever would in respect to capacity-per-weight, after just 10 years. I respectfully disagree. We've gone a long very with ICE cars over the past 100 years, and we've only just started the journey with EVs.

You can respectfully disagree.

I'd point to 40 years of promises that better battery tech was just around the corner - and that NIMH was once seen as the game changer - and then along came Li-ion.

What has shifted I suspect is apart from regulation and fashion - is that Li-ion is 'good enough' for a decent EV - as long as you can pay for it. The shocker is that 450kg figure which is down to the ability of the customer to pay for a type of EV that is desirable.

You stiull don't seem to be able to address the fundamental contraction of the upir staement about EVs being inherently cheaper. The evidence of the eal worlkd is that they are not.

This goes back to something I haven't repeated so bluntly for a while - which is that current EVs are still a fundamental failure - and only backed by customers willing to overspend on motoring and governments legislating and taxing in their favour.

 

[Dryce]

How do you know all this stuff?

Well it's sort of obvious taht in countries like the UK that energy policy is so mixed up if things continue as is that we'll only be able to get fossil fules from other parts of the world. It won't matter that we're sitting on gas or oil or coal reseves. They'll be politically untouchable.

 

[Fununcle]

Well it's sort of obvious taht in countries like the UK that energy policy is so mixed up if things continue as is that we'll only be able to get fossil fules from other parts of the world. It won't matter that we're sitting on gas or oil or coal reseves. They'll be politically untouchable.

Good

 

[Tonye]

Vegetable oil friendly diesel Mercedes will still be running. Anything pre CDI.

wanted,
Old clunker MB diesel engine for my SL

 

[ChipChop]

wanted,
Old clunker MB diesel engine for my SL

Those clever Africans having been buying up most of the indirect injection OM diesel engines for years now. Wonder if they will bother with the West's cast off EV's in the future?

 

[190]

Wonder if they will bother with the West's cast off EV's in the future?

Well I think you can be sure that if they do it won't be complex EV's like MB's. It will be something simple like a Dacia or perhaps manufacturers will produce Africa specific vehicles like this: Made in Africa for Africa: the electric bus designed to transform a continent | Autocar

 

[markjay]

Those clever Africans having been buying up most of the indirect injection OM diesel engines for years now. Wonder if they will bother with the West's cast off EV's in the future?

Well I think you can be sure that if they do it won't be complex EV's like MB's. It will be something simple like a Dacia or perhaps manufacturers will produce Africa specific vehicles like this: Made in Africa for Africa: the electric bus designed to transform a continent | Autocar

I am with 190 on this one.

This is an update on a clip I posted previously:

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(For those who didn't watch the first clip, it didn't actually cost $2,000, but more like $7,000 once the Li-ion batteries were specified over Lead-acid, and other enhancements, etc)

Others seem to like it as well:

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It is NOT road legal in the US (and almost certainly also not in EU), but it does highlight the direction that developing countries will take.

Their electric vehicles will not look to be clever and sophisticated - but simple and cheap.

Another interesting comment is regarding the amount of allegedly stolen IPR that went into this car - and which demonstrates my point that part of the current high price of EVs is due copyright, patents, and R&D that needs to be paid back.

I don't think that the future of motoring in developing countries will be based on $2,000 mini-trucks built with stolen IPR, but again, this does highlight the fact that people in Africa and South America and Asia will be looking to buy cheap EVs, far cheaper than the ones we are currently getting over here.

 

[Wolfie1]

We’re not being forced to buy EVs though, are we?

Assuming there will be no change in policy or demand, then it will still be possible to buy cars with ICE engine cars - in hybrid form - until 2035, so 13 years from now.

Even then, there is nothing stopping us all continuing with our current cars. If we like our current cars more than new cars then surely we just continue using them.

If new EV sales stop overnight then both car manufacturers and Governenta will either change their strategy, or accept that car buying has changed forever.

Whether new or secondhand, on average I keep cars for 10 years and it’s no hardship. I do it because I like those cars more than the ones I could replace them with.

If I don’t like the cars of the future then I’ll just keep running my current ones until that’s no longer possible which is long enough from now to be of little concern.

Well we are really, when i bought my current car new last year i am intending keeping it for 10 years, then my next new car will have to be an electric, unless of course you buy a hybrid but will the technology keep evolving, going by the current trend of ic engines manufacturers have pretty much stopped r&d as its just not worth the spend for the returns for the next 8 years , oh i dont know where cars are going in the future but i dont really like where its heading! Ok second hand cars will still be out there but i reckon they will all be mhev by then, who knows really we can only speculate!

 

[Dickster]

I agree, we are being forced into switching to technology that is in its infancy. It’s okay if you can keep using your ice vehicles for 10-20 years, but what about business users that use their cars for travelling up and down the country all year?

We’ve had an ipace for a test drive all weekend and it’s going back this morning. I admit I’ll miss it. But ultimately, for what it is , it’s ridiculously expensive. And it’s far too small for our needs - we have three dogs and they won’t fit in the boot.

I’ll happily change to EV, but the tech and cost has a long way to go.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Well we are really, when i bought my current car new last year i am intending keeping it for 10 years, then my next new car will have to be an electric, unless of course you buy a hybrid but will the technology keep evolving, going by the current trend of ic engines manufacturers have pretty much stopped r&d as its just not worth the spend for the returns for the next 8 years , oh i dont know where cars are going in the future but i dont really like where its heading! Ok second hand cars will still be out there but i reckon they will all be mhev by then, who knows really we can only speculate!

Assuming that the policy doesn’t change and demand for ICE cars doesn’t tail off sooner (prompting manufacturers to stop making them sooner), could you not swap your car at 8 or 9 years old - instead of waiting for the full 10 years? If you really want an ICE only, you could sneak in before the change. You’ll be very close to your target 10 years.