The EV fact thread

[Connoisseur]

Electric cars in UK last as long as petrol and diesel vehicles, study finds

International research team based findings on 300m records from MOT data to estimate failure rates of all cars

www.theguardian.com

 

[rf065]

..they would be using that same coal powered electricity to build ICE cars if they were not building EVs.....

No they wouldn't, nobody buys their ICE cars, they do seem to be cornering the market in EV's that cost less than the rest of the worlds EV's, that's the only reason they are being bought.

 

[SmartAmg]

Electric cars in UK last as long as petrol and diesel vehicles, study finds

International research team based findings on 300m records from MOT data to estimate failure rates of all cars

www.theguardian.com

Nah, that can't be true. That's just made up. Absolutely impossible.

 

[SmartAmg]

No they wouldn't, nobody buys their ICE cars, they do seem to be cornering the market in EV's that cost less than the rest of the worlds EV's, that's the only reason they are being bought.

Isn't that a pretty good reason to buy them?

 

[BTB 500]

Nah, that can't be true. That's just made up. Absolutely impossible.

'Made up' is a bit harsh. They prefer 'estimated'

 

[Dryce]

Why not start there? Let's shut down some of these power-hungry petrol stations to create more charging capacity available for EVs

Nothing like diverting from the actual underlying issue which is that petrol and diesel distribution represents a massive energy supply and distribution system that delivers massive amounts of kWh equivalent energy for use in transport which will need to replaced with generated kWh.

Simple response is - we need more power stations - wake up to the fact.

And with reference to your previous post about picking on EVs (a) this happens to be about EVs and (b) I have pointed out the additional issue of policy makers pushing towards electricity for heating and how many gas kWh equivalents.

Bottom line: We have a supply problem. It will have to be dealt with. People have avoided waking up to it - and in some cases just glossed over and declared there is no issue,

 

[Will]

No they wouldn't, nobody buys their ICE cars, they do seem to be cornering the market in EV's that cost less than the rest of the worlds EV's, that's the only reason they are being bought.

Why would you start to manufacture obsolete tech?

As has been said multiple times on this thread, nobody bats an eyelid when shopping for the latest phone, computer, TV or anything else that is typically made in China. China are the manufacturing powerhouse of the world for all sorts of things.

But because they don’t like the idea of EVs others are trying to use it against them. Blaming another country is a weak argument IMO.

Demand drives supply.

 

[markjay]

Isn't that a pretty good reason to buy them?

I think you've hit the nail on the head.

On one hand, we don't want cheap Chinese goods because it harms local industries, brings-about job losses, reduced our economic independence, and also it increases pollution because the Chinese are not chasing Net Zero like we do. Then, there's the moral dimension - the Chinese workers who produce the goods we consume in the West are overworked and underpaid.

On the other hand, democratic governments do need to be re-elected from time to time, and what better way of appeasing voters is there, than lowering the cost-of-living and raising the standard-of-living for the masses? Cheap Chinese goods go a long way toward achieving this.

To impose Tariffs, or to not impose Tariffs... what's a government to do?

 

[ChipChop]

Isn't that a pretty good reason to buy them?

@markjay On the other hand, democratic governments do need to be re-elected from time to time, and what better way of appeasing voters is there, than lowering the cost-of-living and raising the standard-of-living for the masses? Cheap Chinese goods go a long way toward achieving this.

What leads you to believe Chinese made EV's will remain cheap after they have put Western manufacturers out of business?

 

[markjay]

Nothing like diverting from the actual underlying issue which is that petrol and diesel distribution represents a massive energy supply and distribution system that delivers massive amounts of kWh equivalent energy for use in transport which will need to replaced with generated kWh.

I did point out that my post was deliberately argumentative. And I made no attempt to calculate the Mile-per-kW that you get from a petrol station, which will obviously be way higher than EV chargers.

But what is relevant here, is that this is just one element that all those calculations that seem to demonstrate that we can't have more EVs neglect: As we have more EVs, we will have less petrol stations. And so, a genuine calculation should also take into account the gradual reduction of electricity consumption as petrol stations close down due to lack of demand, which will go at least some way towards offsetting the increase in demand of electricity for EVs.

And, it's not only the petrol stations themselves that should be considered, there's also the electricity required to refuel the tankers that deliver the petrol and Diesel to the petrol stations, and the electricity required to manufacture these tanker lorries, and the electricity required to refine the crude... all of which will be reduced gradually as more and more EVs replace ICE cars, and the electricity saved should be offset against the increase in electricity consumption by EV chargers. (I am not even talking about the Carbon footprint of drilling for, then refining and distributing fossil fuels...)

Another element, for example, is that no weight whatsoever is given to improvements in m/kW (in spite of the fact that mpg for ICE cars has improved dramatically since the early days of motoring). At current, the average is probably around 3-4, ranging from 1-2 in poor weather on the motorway to 5-6 during a nice day and in-town driving. A more scientific approach will have to make best-case and worst-case assumptions regarding gradual improvements in efficiency over the coming years and decades (and even then it will only be as good as our ability to predict technological advances in general, which has been proved so far to be poor).

My point is - again - that simply looking at what we have now then multiplying it be the number of EVs in X years' time is no different to the prediction that New-York's streets will be covered in one foot of horse manure.

 

[markjay]

Simple response is - we need more power stations - wake up to the fact.

I keep saying that I know nothing of the situation in the UK, other than what I read online.

My only point is that the argument that says that we can't possibly have sufficient electricity production capacity to support EVs is disingenuous - because it is wrapped in illogical claims (such as that the current EV tech will not improve in the next 50 years etc).

 

[SmartAmg]

What leads you to believe Chinese made EV's will remain cheap after they have put Western manufacturers out of business?

To be honest I've no idea, what will happen in the future. I'm buying what's best, for me now. And at a guess, I would say that is the case, for most folk.

 

[markjay]

Isn't that a pretty good reason to buy them?

What leads you to believe Chinese made EV's will remain cheap after they have put Western manufacturers out of business?

Even more of a reason to hurry and buy one NOW!

 

[rf065]

Why would you start to manufacture obsolete tech?

As has been said multiple times on this thread, nobody bats an eyelid when shopping for the latest phone, computer, TV or anything else that is typically made in China. China are the manufacturing powerhouse of the world for all sorts of things.

But because they don’t like the idea of EVs others are trying to use it against them. Blaming another country is a weak argument IMO.

Demand drives supply.

Precisely my point that you seem to have missed entirely, there is no demand for their ICE cars.
I was replying to the claim, ".they would be using that same coal powered electricity to build ICE cars if they were not building EVs.."

 

[markjay]

Even more of a reason to hurry and buy one NOW!

In fact, buy two! Keeping in mind that EVs die after 8 years, and since EV technology has peaked and will not change in the next 50 years, just keep the other one in the original shrink-wrap until the current one bites the dust. Simple!

 

[ChipChop]

Even more of a reason to hurry and buy one NOW!

You want to contribute to the decline of vehicle manufacturing in the West?

The motor trade will take a hit as well. EV's apparently need no maintainance i hear so that is garages up beep creek.

One point of note is replacement EV battery packs remain expensive despite now being produced at scale. Over 80% of them are made in China so there is your shape of things to come.

 

[Bellow]

Why would you start to manufacture obsolete tech?

As has been said multiple times on this thread, nobody bats an eyelid when shopping for the latest phone, computer, TV or anything else that is typically made in China. China are the manufacturing powerhouse of the world for all sorts of things.

But because they don’t like the idea of EVs others are trying to use it against them. Blaming another country is a weak argument IMO.

Demand drives supply.

It is nothing to do with disliking EVs. The nickel and dime items you mention have never - or not for a very long time - been manufactured in the West. Cars on the other hand have been for a century or more and are major employers and if they fold the ensuing unemployment cannot not create further social and economic costs. As the West lurches dangerously to the right, fuelling that particular fire with widespread unemployment will not end well.

 

[Will]

I did point out that my post was deliberately argumentative. And I made no attempt to calculate the Mile-per-kW that you get from a petrol station, which will obviously be way higher than EV chargers.

But what is relevant here, is that this is just one element that all those calculations that seem to demonstrate that we can't have more EVs neglect: As we have more EVs, we will have less petrol stations. And so, a genuine calculation should also take into account the gradual reduction of electricity consumption as petrol stations close down due to lack of demand, which will go at least some way towards offsetting the increase in demand of electricity for EVs.

And, it's not only the petrol stations themselves that should be considered, there's also the electricity required to refuel the tankers that deliver the petrol and Diesel to the petrol stations, and the electricity required to manufacture these tanker lorries, and the electricity required to refine the crude... all of which will be reduced gradually as more and more EVs replace ICE cars, and the electricity saved should be offset against the increase in electricity consumption by EV chargers. (I am not even talking about the Carbon footprint of drilling for, then refining and distributing fossil fuels...)

Another element, for example, is that no weight whatsoever is given to improvements in m/kW (in spite of the fact that mpg for ICE cars has improved dramatically since the early days of motoring). At current, the average is probably around 3-4, ranging from 1-2 in poor weather on the motorway to 5-6 during a nice day and in-town driving. A more scientific approach will have to make best-case and worst-case assumptions regarding gradual improvements in efficiency over the coming years and decades (and even then it will only be as good as our ability to predict technological advances in general, which has been proved so far to be poor).

My point is - again - that simply looking at what we have now then multiplying it be the number of EVs in X years' time is no different to the prediction that New-York's streets will be covered in one foot of horse manure.

I can think of at least two filling stations very nearby to where I am now that have closed down and been upgraded to EV charging stations (Shell and BP)

I’m sure this trend will continue.

It’s strange as it wasn’t that long ago that one of the main criticisms of EVs were a lack of charging points. Now there’s significant improvement, anti-EV posters want to move the goalposts

 

[markjay]

Precisely my point that you seem to have missed entirely, there is no demand for their ICE cars.
I was replying to the claim, ".they would be using that same coal powered electricity to build ICE cars if they were not building EVs.."

True. However, you have to keep in mind that building ICE car is a tough business - lots of complex metalworks - the saving potential compared to ICE cars built in the West is relatively low. But when it comes to electric and electronic components, that's where the Chinese come into their own. They simply went straight for where they know the West can't compete. But yes, if EVs did not exist, it would have been only a matter of time before the Chinese tried to sell ICE cars in the West (just like the Koreans do, and the Japanese before them).

 

[SmartAmg]

Precisely my point that you seem to have missed entirely, there is no demand for their ICE cars.
I was replying to the claim, ".they would be using that same coal powered electricity to build ICE cars if they were not building EVs.."

Of course they would be using coal powered leccy to build ICE cars, because that's mostly what they use. IF they where building ICE cars. But mostly they don't. Because they don't see a future in ICE cars. They see the future, is EVs. Simple really.