The EV fact thread

[markjay]

You keep saying ICE is 'difficult' but the numbers tell a different story. The engine accounts for 20% of build cost for a lower than EV priced ICE vehicle, the cost of a battery is 40% of a higher priced vehicle. Factor in the EV is roughly 50% more expensive than its ICE equivalent and the ICE works out at one third of the battery cost. Difficulty is reflected in cost and clearly ICE can't be as difficult as you imply.

That's precisely my point.

How can you make complex metalwork any cheaper? You can't. Gaston Glock makes cheap guns by not machining the receiver, but leaving rough it as it comes out of the mould.

Why is an EV battery expensive? Because of the cost of the raw materials, mainly. Superb, find cheaper ones. Etc. There's massive scope for cost reduction with EVs (especially when a significant proportion of the cost is R&D), there's zero scope of saving on the process required for building an ICE engine or automatic transmission - that's why the Chinese are not trying to enter these markets in Europe and the US.

 

[Bellow]

That's precisely my point.

How can you make complex metalwork any cheaper? You can't. Gaston Glock makes cheap guns by not machining the receiver, but leaving rough it as it comes out of the mould.

You can as I've explained before.

Why is an EV battery expensive? Because of the cost of the raw materials, mainly. Superb, find cheaper ones. Etc. There's massive scope for cost reduction with EVs (especially when a significant proportion of the cost is R&D), there's zero scope of saving on the process required for building an ICE engine or automatic transmission - that's why the Chinese are not trying to enter these markets in Europe and the US.

Find cheaper materials and still have the required battery performance? Really, you believe that will happen? But good luck chasing cheaper when one country predominately has the monopoly on them and will set pricing as it sees fit.
And as for EVs becoming cheaper to build - they've benefitted from a century of ICE car production. Only the drivetrain is different. Suspension, brakes, chassis construction, seating, etc, etc is all carried over and already built as cheaply as possible. A heat pump though will add to the cost, transmissions for EVs will become multi-ratio and thus more expensive so the idea that costs will inexorably lower is fantasy.

 

[Bellow]

And petrol stations have convenience stores built around the cashier... EV charging is 100% cashless so no shop. How much electricity does the petrol station's shop consume? What's the CO footprint of the staff coming to work everyday? Etc.

Next time you are in Aberdeen drop in by Asda's forecourt in Garthdee. What you'll see are people refuelling with petrol and diesel, paying by card at the pump and leaving. What you won't see is a shop, cashier, staff, or anything else that consumes electricity bar some overhead lighting if your there during the hours of darkness. Petrol and diesel can be dispensed as simply as your EV recharging stalls. Inevitably. there will be consumers of electricity appearing at EV charge points though just to give people something to do while waiting for the EV to recharge. No such thing required with ICE when refuelling takes mere minutes.

 

[ChipChop]

And we obviously know what a chinese battery pack for an EV will cost in 10 years time. Again, projection based on the tech not changing. Have we learnt nothing over the past 30 years about technical advances?

You expect the price to be significantly different when China has achieved its current goal to dominate all things EV globally.

A PRC EV monopoly will be positive for the West? In what way?

 

[BTB 500]

Both petrol pumps and EV chargers will consume some electricity when idle, at the very least to power the LCD display etc.

Of course. So likely no significant net change from disposing of pumps and replacing them with EV charging stalls.

And petrol stations have convenience stores built around the cashier... EV charging is 100% cashless so no shop. How much electricity does the petrol station's shop consume? What's the CO footprint of the staff coming to work everyday? Etc.

You think all the stores will disappear? They are more profitable now than selling fuel and there's a steady demand for their products & services, so I think it's pretty unlikely. I've already covered this in previous posts - presumably EVs also need to put air in their tyres, top up screen wash, use a car wash, etc. and their drivers will want to buy food, drinks, lottery tickets etc. as now. I don't think dedicated EV charging sites generally have those facilities? @Will already mentioned some forecourts near him that have simply converted from ICE to EV and I think that's a likely scenario. In which case the suggested reduction in power drawn from the grid won't happen.

As an aside some UK ICE forecourts are 100% cashless with no shop (generally at big supermarkets where presumably they think a staffed shop wouldn't generate enough revenue to be worthwhile). I actually thought there was a requirement to have staff present, but that can't be the case. Or maybe having staff available 'nearby' is accepatble.

I don't have the figures, but I think your quick response wasn't a well-considered one.

As above it was a quick response because it was repeating what I'd already said.

 

[BTB 500]

Great, but can please demonstrate where in previous post has this amount been reduced from the EV charging electricity requirements calculation? The estimate I posted was 50kWh per pump per day. Otherwise, it's just picking and choosing facts.

I was simply disputing the suggested reduction from removing ICE fuel pumps, for the reasons already given.

 

[Will]

Yeah, very wrong.
At no point have I said I dislike EVs. I compare their capabilities with ICE and if in certain aspects they are found wanting I say so.
Amazon - never mentioned it. Not once. Nothing against China either. I do however have a dislike for widespread unemployment and those playing fast and loose with a major source of Western employment.
Your constant allegation that I (and others) are change resistant is misplaced and you cannot arrive at that conclusion about me as you have no knowledge of me or my life. If you paid more attention you'd realise that on many issues over the years on this forum I've been ahead of the curve.
As I've said - as recently as yesterday - I see the need for decarbonisation. I merely disagree with implementation of it and the stupidity of backing only one horse and shooting all the others. Look closely and you will realise I am one of the very few here who see the need to decarbonise but don't swallow the hogwash peddled by the like of the National Grid, one of the very few who can be critical of what is happening (and not happening) without being a climate change denier. Maybe that is why your attempts to pigeon hole me are failing. Why TF am I having to justify who are what I am or am not to you? This is about EVs and their implementation and integration into networks on which they will depend. SFA to do with me as a person.
What we did before the motor car was live within walking or cycling distance of our workplace but WTF has that to do with the debate?

I do apologise - in the flurry of posts I mistook your post for Mr. ChipChop.

 

[Will]

Of course. So likely no significant net change from disposing of pumps and replacing them with EV charging stalls.




You think all the stores will disappear? They are more profitable now than selling fuel and there's a steady demand for their products & services, so I think it's pretty unlikely. I've already covered this in previous posts - presumably EVs also need to put air in their tyres, top up screen wash, use a car wash, etc. and their drivers will want to buy food, drinks, lottery tickets etc. as now. I don't think dedicated EV charging sites generally have those facilities? @Will already mentioned some forecourts near him that have simply converted from ICE to EV and I think that's a likely scenario. In which case the suggested reduction in power drawn from the grid won't happen.

As an aside some UK ICE forecourts are 100% cashless with no shop (generally at big supermarkets where presumably they think a staffed shop wouldn't generate enough revenue to be worthwhile). I actually thought there was a requirement to have staff present, but that can't be the case. Or maybe having staff available 'nearby' is accepatble.




As above it was a quick response because it was repeating what I'd already said.

I think it’s worth considering Bill - there’s two aspects of the petrol/diesel filling station vs. EV charging station.

It’s not really about how much electricity a petrol pump uses is it? It’s about the overall impact of supplying that commodity - from drilling for oil and all the way to dispensing.

The figure of 4.5 kWh per gallon has been mentioned just for refining. So there’s clearly a considerable amount to consider - certainly not to be glossed over.

 

[BTB 500]

No no no, is just around the corner, if people only listened....

Zero emissions ICE is here now.

I understand JCB's hydrogen combustion engines (now licensed for production use) are considered to be zero emissions because any NOx produced is too low to be detected or measured. There are no hydrocarbon/CO2/particulate emissions from burning hydrogen of course.

 

[Will]

Sure, but this was raised in the context of less kWh being required from the domestic grid as ICE forecourts closed ... thereby offsetting the extra power required for EV charging.

I just don't see this - the pumps themselves use nothing when idle (much of the time) and probably not a huge amount when running for short periods. And EV charging sites/stalls obviously consume power themselves (in addition to what they put into the vehicle).

Your example of existing forecourts converting from ICE to EV confirms the other facilities they have are still wanted/needed by EV drivers, which makes sense. And I think the power consumption for those will be far more significant than power used specifically for 'fuelling' the vehicles (whether ICE or EV).

As mentioned locating/drilling for/extracting/transporting/refining crude oil will continue for the foreseeable future anyway, even if all cars are EVs.

Closure of ICE forecourts - as in much less petrol/diesel being used (30 million cars worth) - not about how many wild bean cafes there are etc.

No doubt crude oil usage will continue for some time yet to support other industries, but you can’t suggest that by not refining the oil to fuel 30 million vehicles there wouldn’t be significant impact in the energy used to process that.

 

[Will]

If there are 40 million vehicles in the UK (I think that's about right?) and they were all EVs using (a pretty conservative figure I think) 10 kWh per day that would require 400,000 MWh a day, or 146 TWh a year. The UK's current annual electricity consumption is 266 TWh (2023, latest data I could find) ... so I make that an increase of 55%. In reality it would be much higher as electric vans, HGVs, buses etc. would all be using way more than 10 kWh a day (e.g. 600 kWh batteries in the Amazon delivery trucks mentioned a day or so ago, and 462 kWh in London buses). So an 'overnight increase' figure of 10% seems very low to me

Just working on some very rough numbers here.

30 million ICE vehicles, 35mpg
If it takes 4.5 kWh to refine a gallon of petrol
7k miles PA

I make that 27 TWh - just to refine? Not considering all of the associated and indirect losses of getting that fuel to the pump itself.

Happy to be corrected - but just to get the ball rolling. And Bill’s assumptions above were based on 40 million EVs, and I questioned the 10kWh (per day) figure per vehicle as I think it’s significantly too high anyway.

 

[BIGDOG]

No no no, zero emissions ICE is just around the corner, if people only listened....

Bloody sheeple.

 

[BIGDOG]

You expect the price to be significantly different when China has achieved its current goal to dominate all things EV globally.

A PRC EV monopoly will be positive for the West? In what way?

Wouldn’t it be hilariously ironic to see the West blatantly copying ideas from China?

 

[ioweddie]

Question Guys. Would it be OK to charge a Plug in Hybrid 2025 1.5 petrol VW Tiguan via a 13 amp plug? Asking for a friend

 

[Will]

Question Guys. Would it be OK to charge a Plug in Hybrid 2025 1.5 petrol VW Tiguan via a 13 amp plug? Asking for a friend

Yes, should be fine - it only has a small battery so the lower charging rate of a regular 3-pin plug wouldn’t be much of an issue.

If you’re likely to be keeping it for a while or want to charge a bit quicker, you can fit a proper wall charging point and future proof at the same time.

 

[ioweddie]

Yes, should be fine - it only has a small battery so the lower charging rate of a regular 3-pin plug wouldn’t be much of an issue.

If you’re likely to be keeping it for a while or want to charge a bit quicker, you can fit a proper wall charging point and future proof at the same time.

Thanks not me but my Daughter

 

[BTB 500]

I think it’s worth considering Bill - there’s two aspects of the petrol/diesel filling station vs. EV charging station.

It’s not really about how much electricity a petrol pump uses is it? It’s about the overall impact of supplying that commodity - from drilling for oil and all the way to dispensing.

The figure of 4.5 kWh per gallon has been mentioned just for refining. So there’s clearly a considerable amount to consider - certainly not to be glossed over.

A specific reduction in demand from the grid from closing ICE filling stations was mentioned, and for the reasons given I doubt that.

I also doubt the level of power saving being quoted for the production of petrol/diesel. I have given my reasons for this but I'll run through them again.

1. Primarily, so long as society needs plastics/lubricants/aviation fuel/marine fuel/road surfaces/detergents/solvents/chemicals/etc./etc. then we will still need crude oil and refining, and all the costs and power usage that entails (exploration/extraction/processing/shipping).

2. Gasoline and gasoil (diesel) are 'by products' of the refining process - you can't obtain the heavier product grades (which are released at higher temperatures) without also getting them:



Hence assigning a specific power requirement for just (say) petrol is pretty dubious when it's part of a single huge process (from exploration to refining) that also produces multiple other oil products.

For full disclosure there are some subsequent processes carried out on gasoline (and to a lesser extent diesel) but AFAIK the power requirements for those are pretty modest compared to crude distillation.

I spent 34 years working for an oil major but in IT (products trading, shipping, and supply) not refining, so the knowledge I have is essentially background (and from some time ago) not specialist. So I'm happy to be corrected if necessary.

 

[Will]

A specific reduction in demand from the grid from closing ICE filling stations was mentioned, and for the reasons given I doubt that.

I also doubt the level of power saving being quoted for the production of petrol/diesel. I have given my reasons for this but I'll run through them again.

1. Primarily, so long as society needs plastics/lubricants/aviation fuel/marine fuel/road surfaces/detergents/solvents/chemicals/etc./etc. then we will still need crude oil and refining, and all the costs and power usage that entails (exploration/extraction/processing/shipping).

2. Gasoline and gasoil (diesel) are 'by products' of the refining process - you can't obtain the heavier product grades (which are released at higher temperatures) without also getting them:

View attachment 166910

Hence assigning a specific power requirement for just (say) petrol is pretty dubious when it's part of a single huge process (from exploration to refining) that also produces multiple other oil products.

For full disclosure there are some subsequent processes carried out on gasoline (and to a lesser extent diesel) but AFAIK the power requirements for those are pretty modest compared to crude distillation.

I spent 34 years working for an oil major but in IT (products trading, shipping, and supply) not refining, so the knowledge I have is essentially background (and from some time ago) not specialist. So I'm happy to be corrected if necessary.

I’m happy to wait for someone with some greater knowledge on the specific fractioning process (and I’m certain they’re on this thread!), but I’m sure that 27 Trillion litres of crude oil will not be simply wasted as implied if the UK stopped using 30 million ICE vehicles (just going from rough estimates above)

There was talk of using synthetic fuels earlier in this thread - so if you’re not using the crude (and refining that into gasoline/gasoil) for ICE vehicles, you’d still be wasting the fuel as you suggest and using more energy to create the synthetics anyway.

 

[markjay]

A specific reduction in demand from the grid from closing ICE filling stations was mentioned, and for the reasons given I doubt that.

I also doubt the level of power saving being quoted for the production of petrol/diesel. I have given my reasons for this but I'll run through them again.

1. Primarily, so long as society needs plastics/lubricants/aviation fuel/marine fuel/road surfaces/detergents/solvents/chemicals/etc./etc. then we will still need crude oil and refining, and all the costs and power usage that entails (exploration/extraction/processing/shipping).

2. Gasoline and gasoil (diesel) are 'by products' of the refining process - you can't obtain the heavier product grades (which are released at higher temperatures) without also getting them:

View attachment 166910

Hence assigning a specific power requirement for just (say) petrol is pretty dubious when it's part of a single huge process (from exploration to refining) that also produces multiple other oil products.

For full disclosure there are some subsequent processes carried out on gasoline (and to a lesser extent diesel) but AFAIK the power requirements for those are pretty modest compared to crude distillation.

I spent 34 years working for an oil major but in IT (products trading, shipping, and supply) not refining, so the knowledge I have is essentially background (and from some time ago) not specialist. So I'm happy to be corrected if necessary.

Fine regarding crude processing, you're the expert.

But what about road haulage - less tanker lorries being produced - less miles being driven- etc? Surely we'll need less of these - etc.

 

[BTB 500]

But what about road haulage - less tanker lorries being produced - less miles being driven- etc? Surely we'll need less of these - etc.

Yes, certainly.