The EV fact thread

[ALFAitalia]

Very true......there is something about replying to the "hard of thinking" that we get in this thread that I find irresistible.......and I don't even want an EV!!!.....not referring to any particular members of course!!!

But I'm gonna try ......for a few days.....honest!!

 

[Bellow]

Eg 3.3 miles per kWh, 7k miles PA would be less than 6kWh?

7000/3.3 = 2121kW.hr. = 2.1MW.hr.

 

[rf065]

They have been saying that for years.....never seems to happen though. We use less power and produce more than we have for years....more scaremongering. Personally I'll believe it if it happens and not before.......and based on past forecasts of doom I'll be waiting a while!!!

It never seems to happen only because the power suppliers have implemented measures for decades to avoid it happening. Manufacturers who use a lot of gas for example, can get it supplied at cheaper rates if they agree to a contract where at times of gas shortage, they will stop using theirs to allow everyone else to keep their central heating on, and keep the gas fired power stations running!
Electricity companies over winter will offer incentives for you to stop using you're appliances for an hour or more at peak times, would they do that if we had energy in abundance for everyone? There has been a few occasions over the last 10 years where the UK has been within hours of the lights going out, so you're 100% correct, it never seems to happen, but only because of the work going on that you aren't aware of to keep everything running.

 

[Will]

7000/3.3 = 2121kW.hr. = 2.1MW.hr.

Yes - but Bill was quoting the figure needed per day (he estimated 10kWh on average per day, which I felt didn’t correlate with annual usage) - 2121/365 is about 5.8 kWh per day. Plus the charging losses that he likes to mention of course…

Sorry if that was not clear

 

[BTB 500]

I think you’re looking at this to simplistically Bill.

It's quite possible!

Eg - how much electricity is used to support the entire process of supplying fuel to ICE vehicles? From refining to pump - I bet it’s more that some will have thought - it was mentioned that around 4.5kwh is used to refine one gallon of petrol? Obviously if all cars are EV there will be some offset to consider.

There will be some offset, but not all of the UK's road fuel will be refined in the UK.

And cars are reportedly parked up for 96% of the time. If V2G takes off, that’s a huge amount of potential capacity using your 40 million vehicle figure - if anything a more stable and secure network of power that can cope more effectively with changes in production and demand especially as the tech and software to manage this is brought in.

But as mentioned do EV owners potentially want battery lifespan reduced by their cars discharging to the grid then having to be charged up again before use?

I’m not sure on the figures for consumption either - annual mileage has reduced and I expect efficiency will be better instead of worse. Eg 3.3 miles per kWh, 7k miles PA would be less than 6kWh? Of course in winter and at high motorway speeds we know EVs will use more, but many will use less especially as speed limits are reduced and congestion is likely to be a factor if you have more vehicles in future too. Newer and smaller EVs seem to be capable of 4 miles plus per kWh and I suspect that trend will continue. Even accounting for your losses in charging that you speak about, it’s a lot less than 10kWh per vehicle per day - closer to half of that

7,000 miles a year at 3.3 miles per kWh is 2.1 MWh. So for 40 million vehicles, 84 TWh a year. That would still be a 32% increase in electricity consumption, which is a long way off the 10% quoted..

But as mentioned if all road transport including public transport, heavy haulage, etc. is battery powered then it would be much higher. From a quick Google there are half a million HGVs on the road in the UK. If you assumed that load could be covered by the same number of those 600 kWh Amazon trucks and that each only required a single charge per day (both pretty unlikely) that alone would be 110 TWh a year (a 41% increase in annual electricity consumption compared to now).

 

[BTB 500]

Plus the charging losses that he likes to mention of course…

I'm not including losses in any of my guesstimated figures - trying to be optimistic

 

[Will]

I'm not including losses in any of my guesstimated figures - trying to be optimistic

I got in there first

 

[Will]

It's quite possible!



There will be some offset, but not all of the UK's road fuel will be refined in the UK.



But as mentioned do EV owners potentially want battery lifespan reduced by their cars discharging to the grid then having to be charged up again before use?



7,000 miles a year at 3.3 miles per kWh is 2.1 MWh. So for 40 million vehicles, 84 TWh a year. That would still be a 32% increase in electricity consumption, which is a long way off the 10% quoted..

But as mentioned if all road transport including public transport, heavy haulage, etc. is battery powered then it would be much higher. From a quick Google there are half a million HGVs on the road in the UK. If you assumed that load could be covered by the same number of those 600 kWh Amazon trucks and that each only required a single charge per day (both pretty unlikely) that alone would be 110 TWh a year (a 41% increase in annual electricity consumption compared to now).

I think in future there will certainly be a trend of localised energy storage and probably more solar and such like.

Clearly if there’s sufficient capacity on grid then no need to feedback (V2G or from domestic battery storage). But in answer to the anxiety of blackouts, it’s certainly a nice contingency to have

Aren’t annual mileages decreasing anyway?
You also haven’t allowed for the offset of fuel production/distribution as mentioned - that has to be significant if you’re taking 30 million vehicles off the road?

And electricity usage is lower than it was two decades ago, despite an increase in the number of EVs, housing, population growth etc.

 

[rf065]

Aren’t annual mileages decreasing anyway?

I think that's a red herring, statistics say they are decreasing, but the average household now has 2 or 3 cars when there used to be 1.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Fail to stay away...will try again....anyway.

Source: Road traffic estimates in Great Britain, 2024: Headline Figures

Latest figures show that 333.7 billion vehicle miles were driven on Great Britain’s roads in the 12 month period ending September 2024. This was up 1.4 per cent compared to the year ending September 2023. Motor vehicle traffic levels fell during the pandemic but have since increased. Traffic levels for the year ending September 2024 were 1.5 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

Cars and taxis travelled 252.9 billion vehicle miles in the 12 months ending September 2024. Car and taxi traffic rose 1.3 per cent from the year ending September 2023. Car and taxi miles for the year ending September 2024 were down by 3.8 per cent compared to pre-pandemic levels.

59.0 billion vehicle miles were driven by vans on Great Britain’s roads in the 12 month period ending September 2024. This was a rise of 2.3 per cent compared to the year ending September 2023. Van distance travelled for the year ending September 2024 was 10.4 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels.

17.0 billion vehicle miles were driven by lorries on Great Britain’s roads in the 12 month period ending September 2024. Lorry traffic was similar to the year ending September 2023. Distance covered by lorries for the year ending September 2024 was 1.3 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

In the year ending September 2024, 21 per cent of motor vehicle miles travelled were on motorways, 44 per cent on ‘A’ roads, and 35 per cent on minor roads. 65 per cent of motor vehicle miles travelled were on major roads (motorways and ‘A’ roads) despite comprising only 13 per cent of the road network by length.

69.7 billion vehicle miles were driven on motorways in Great Britain in the 12 month period ending September 2024. This was similar to the year ending September 2023. Motorway traffic for the year ending September 2024 was 1.1 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

147.3 billion vehicle miles were driven on ‘A’ roads in Great Britain in the 12 month period ending September 2024. This represents a 1.8 per cent rise from the year ending September 2023. Traffic on ‘A’ roads for the year ending September 2024 was 2.0 per cent lower than pre-pandemic levels.

116.7 billion vehicle miles were driven on minor roads in Great Britain in the 12 month period ending September 2024. This represents a 1.6 per cent increase from the year ending September 2023. Distance travelled on minor roads for the year ending September 2024 was 1.0 per cent below pre-pandemic levels.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Not sure I’d consider myself a maverick - but most people I know or see using EVs are just normal people going about their daily lives.

Get away, you know very well that you’re a maverick, a loose canon, you’re the Mel Gibson of MBClub. Even my Nan knows that she must give electric B-Class owners a wide berth because they’re all hell raisers, every single one of them.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

The more that buy EVs the happier the Gov and the tree huggers will be and the less likely we are to have legislation thrust upon us to force us ICE lovers off the road.

As I often say, if those who can do, then those who can’t (or won’t) don’t have to. I believe that it’s in every “petrolhead’s” best interests for the switch to EV to move at pace. When carrots do the trick, then you don’t need sticks.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Obviously including drainage would increase the cost of this, and I guess there must have been reasons (cost, durability, )

Would adding a soak away add much to the cost? If actually adding a hard surface then the cost will be in the materials and preparation for that hard surface, and digging a soak away will be a relatively small proportion of the overall cost.

Anyone wishing to do it on the cheap out of necessity will just spread gravel on the ground or even just park on grass, in which case there will be no run off and so no drainage required, and therefore no additional cost.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

I think that's a red herring, statistics say they are decreasing, but the average household now has 2 or 3 cars when there used to be 1.

I suspect that is more to do with the number of adults per household increasing rather than the number of cars per adult.

I can’t think of anyone in real life with more cars than adults in the household. People who I know from car clubs often have multiple cars, but that’s a minority and has forever been the case.

 

[Will]

I think that's a red herring, statistics say they are decreasing, but the average household now has 2 or 3 cars when there used to be 1.

Yes for sure there’s more cars, population has increased and people can afford them. But usage patterns are changing too - a lot more people working from home, urban commutes are changing etc. I reckon there’s a lot more reliance on private hire too - Uber and rental car schemes etc, compared to past times.

It’s an even stronger argument for EV usage if anything - and challenging existing habits.

As mentioned multiple times on this thread, it will (and is!) taking time for people to change habits. The positive of that is it gives plenty of time to allow for infrastructure to adapt too.

 

[BTB 500]

Would adding a soak away add much to the cost? If actually adding a hard surface then the cost will be in the materials and preparation for that hard surface, and digging a soak away will be a relatively small proportion of the overall cost.

Anyone wishing to do it on the cheap out of necessity will just spread gravel on the ground or even just park on grass, in which case there will be no run off and so no drainage required, and therefore no additional cost.

You could be right. Legally you'd still need a dropped kerb though, which wasn't cheap IIRC (last time I had one done was a good few years ago).

It would have been interesting in that survey to have a split between households that actually had off-road parking and those that just had potential for it.

 

[BTB 500]

You also haven’t allowed for the offset of fuel production/distribution as mentioned - that has to be significant if you’re taking 30 million vehicles off the road?

True - maybe that would offset the charging losses

Just kidding, not sure how you'd estimate the saving though, or how significant it would actually be.

And electricity usage is lower than it was two decades ago, despite an increase in the number of EVs, housing, population growth etc.

Need to be careful about that as there was a big decline due to switching from incandescent bulbs and fluorescent tubes to CFL and then LEDs for everything (domestic, industrial, street lighting, etc.) ... that improvement is pretty much over now. And more significantly there's a big push to move as much as possible from gas to electricity (which can be renewable/green etc.) now. E.g. electric ovens / air fryers instead of gas ovens, heat pumps instead of gas boilers, etc. So I would actually expect to see usage rising, regardless of EVs.

 

[BTB 500]

I can’t think of anyone in real life with more cars than adults in the household. People who I know from car clubs often have multiple cars, but that’s a minority and has forever been the case.

True - I suspect many in this thread have more cars than adults (and perhaps more disposable income than average too?). So as a group not that representative of the general population.

 

[ChipChop]

I think you are making the incorrect assumption that if 'cost V benefit analysis' would have been carried-out, then the government would have made different policies.

Government are notorious for implementing ideology without any regard to facts or evidence (other than making them up when pressed on the issue). Just look at how Trump is completely overturning almost all of Biden's policies - and neither man had any evidence whatsoever that whet they're doing is good, can work, or makes economic sense.

The policy of imposing tariffs on Chinese EV's is now the norm in the G7. The UK is the only G7 country that has not imposed tariffs on PRC made EV's to date.

The EU imposed tariffs on Chinese EV's in October last year after an anti subsidy investigation which resulted in BYD, Geely & SAIC having tariffs imposed ranging between17% and 35% (all plus 10% import tax). BYD, Geely & SAIC have now filed legal challenges to this decision. Appears they think it is unfair.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinese-ev-makers-file-challenges-tariffs-eu-court-2025-01-23/

 

[Dryce]

I think you’re looking at this to simplistically Bill.

It might be better if policymakers tooth the envelope, turned it over, and actually took a simple arithmetic view of it.

And you just need to look at mileage - total mileage by all the vehicles you are pushing towars EVs. Then take the average kWh per mile you *reasonably* expect and then multiply it by that total number of miles. That then gives you a basic ballpark annual energy figure you have to meet - without taking into account factors like peak demand.

So depending on how you get the numbers - the results reported elsewhere seem to suggest about a 25% to 40% uplift in electricity consumption if every mile becomes an EV mile.

You can then complicate it by reducing that big number because you don't expect an instant transition. And also being realistic by incorporating some peak demand consumptions and so contingency supplies.

And then ... if you are a policy maker - you should look at the same process to figure out what the demands will be if you get everybody to replace their gas boilers with heta pumps or direct electrical heating.

Part of the problem AFAICT is that those setting policy won't turn over the envelope let alone start doing some sums on the back of it.