The EV fact thread

[clk320x]

Just sayin...

Just sayin…

 

[Dryce]

And if it was 5,000 deaths? Or 3,000 deaths? What difference does it make? Just because we don't know the exact figure, isn't a reason to not do anything about it.

Or if you want to look at another report from London:

Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide

An estimated 1 in 5 deaths (18 to 21.5%) every year can be attributed to fossil fuel pollution, a figure much higher than previously thought, according to research co-authored by UCL.

www.ucl.ac.uk

And that would imply - assuming 8,000,000 Londoners - and 120,000 annual total deaths that 24,000 deaths are caused by poor air quality.

Another set of researchers - another headline - and presumably yet another data *model*.

Note that this headline implies deaths caused - not just premature deaths. So some proportion of the 9400 deaths calculated from the *model* used by the other report could be additional to that 24,000.

Now what happened in Scotland when they wanted to justify the minimum alcohol unit pricing was successful they released a report containing details that the number of alcohol related deaths went up (oh dear - policy failure) but they decided to report that they *modelled* that this figure would have been higher had the policy not been implemented (hooray - modelled policy success !!!!!). Of course the headline implying success was parroted which masked the rather more inconvenient truth.

Advocates with models are the new generation problem of how people should deal with statistics. In this new case we have statistics generated by model (supposition) and presented and treated as if actually measured.

This is attractive to academics. It means desk research rather than field research. Models can be adapted to generate different results. And who argues with a model. You can write a research paper on the model and one on the results - revise the model a bit or reseed it - and next year another paper.

The Covid enquiries have been focussing on politicians and decision makers - but I haven't seen anything about validation and comparison of the performance of the underlying models used to support those decision makers.

 

[Noitz]

No, I do not believe everything that the government says. But, equally, I don't necessarily believe everything I see quoted from random Internet sites, either.

As for Net Zero, improving air quality in cities has nothing to do with it. These are two different goals.

Good to hear. Also, Net Zero and improving air quality go hand in hand.

 

[Noitz]

Tesla Model-S, 2012:

"Naah", they said, "It will never catch on".

Mercedes S-Class, 2024:

Who's the real visionary, then?

How is this even legal? You can't use a mobile phone whilst driving as it's classed as an unnecessary distraction, but a ruddy great tablet with similar functions (and probably more) is ok? Or did I miss something.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

No need to upgrade the grid to a capability of recharging all EVs in domestic settings.

It was you that voted for the politicians and regulators that created the EV transition as a response to CO2 change, wasn't it?

What made you think that the grid would need to be "upgraded" to recharge "all EV's" in domestic settings over the course of the next four decades? (The period that it will take to replace "most" ICE vehicles with ICE)

Electricity consumption has already fallen 20% these last two decades since 2003, despite population growth, and is on course to have probably halved within the next two decades.

So if every one of our 35 million cars in the UK was already an EV, we'd be consuming, as a country, the same amount of electricity that we were in 2003. But, fortunately we don't have 35 million EV's, we have one million.

At the same time as electricity moved from being more than 90% fossil fuel to being 50% renewable in 2024, and hopefully very near 100% renewable by 2035.

Is it that you're opposed to solar panels and wind farms because they don't look nice?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

My next incursion into the Continent is being planned as we speak, and I will be driving my EV (unless they ban them from the 'LeShuttle'), hence no air transportation involved.

If you're heading to the Alps, as one does in February, no difficulty in achieving those 650 miles within a day now. (Whether your back & stomach chooses to do so is a different matter)

Chargers everywhere on the route down, and not a charger queue in sight.

And the French tractors have all returned home now. (Although not the Belgian, Dutch, or German tractors)

 

[markjay]

Good to hear. Also, Net Zero and improving air quality go hand in hand.

How so?

Replacing ICE cars with EVs will have a significant effect on air quality next to busy roads, but it will have little effect on global CO2 production.

The issue is that poor air quality is a very localised problem, while CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) is the opposite as it's a global issue.

 

[markjay]

How is this even legal? You can't use a mobile phone whilst driving as it's classed as an unnecessary distraction, but a ruddy great tablet with similar functions (and probably more) is ok? Or did I miss something.

Agreed. Modern infotainment systems can cause a significant distraction. The whole thing needs needs to be regulated, car manufacturers should not be allowed to design the human-machine interface in whatever way they see fit.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Replacing ICE cars with EVs will have a significant effect on air quality next to busy roads, but it will have little effect on global CO2 production.
The issue is that poor air quality is a very localised problem, while CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) is the opposite as it's a global issue.

You'll be relieved to hear that Labour are employing 157 people and a budget of £150 million on developing a pence per mile driven system for ULEZ.

"Project Detroit," measures the mileages driven and delivers a pence per mile charge. Vital for the era when people start each day with 200+ miles of cheap near tax-free home electricity range

No detail yet on how mileage will be charged, and what degree of zoning might be used (high volume areas / time of day), but that will become clear in course.

Got to raise those taxes somehow. Votes don't just buy themselves.

.

 

[E55BOF]

Just sayin…

View attachment 152800

Gotcha...

 

[E55BOF]

You'll be relieved to hear that Labour are employing 157 people and a budget of £150 million on developing a pence per mile driven system for ULEZ.

"Project Detroit," measures the mileages driven and delivers a pence per mile charge. Vital for the era when people start each day with 200+ miles of cheap near tax-free home electricity range

No detail yet on how mileage will be charged, and what degree of zoning might be used (high volume areas / time of day), but that will become clear in course.

Got to raise those taxes somehow. Votes don't just buy themselves.

.

If this thread is going to veer off into discussing the morality and motives of politicians, there won't be much argument to be had...

 

[markjay]

Or if you want to look at another report from London:

Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide

An estimated 1 in 5 deaths (18 to 21.5%) every year can be attributed to fossil fuel pollution, a figure much higher than previously thought, according to research co-authored by UCL.

www.ucl.ac.uk

And that would imply - assuming 8,000,000 Londoners - and 120,000 annual total deaths that 24,000 deaths are caused by poor air quality.

Another set of researchers - another headline - and presumably yet another data *model*.

Note that this headline implies deaths caused - not just premature deaths. So some proportion of the 9400 deaths calculated from the *model* used by the other report could be additional to that 24,000.

Now what happened in Scotland when they wanted to justify the minimum alcohol unit pricing was successful they released a report containing details that the number of alcohol related deaths went up (oh dear - policy failure) but they decided to report that they *modelled* that this figure would have been higher had the policy not been implemented (hooray - modelled policy success !!!!!). Of course the headline implying success was parroted which masked the rather more inconvenient truth.

Advocates with models are the new generation problem of how people should deal with statistics. In this new case we have statistics generated by model (supposition) and presented and treated as if actually measured.

This is attractive to academics. It means desk research rather than field research. Models can be adapted to generate different results. And who argues with a model. You can write a research paper on the model and one on the results - revise the model a bit or reseed it - and next year another paper.

The Covid enquiries have been focussing on politicians and decision makers - but I haven't seen anything about validation and comparison of the performance of the underlying models used to support those decision makers.

Regarding COVID, when the news channels broadcasted daily footage of Italian army truck convoys leaving the city hospitals in Lombardy full of coffins, there were still people who bizarrely and logically concluded that if we can't measure the exact number of excess death resulting from the disease, then we should assume it's zero. Talk of burying your head in the sand..

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

If this thread is going to veer off into discussing the morality and motives of politicians, there won't be much argument to be had...

Quite right, Sir !

The good news is that Mr Khan has invested £150 million on taxing EV’s as well as ICE vehicles on the basis of miles driven.

So while EV’s may be a jolly good tax dodge today, both for purchase and daily driving, plans are being made to “rectify that.”

 

[markjay]

You'll be relieved to hear that Labour are employing 157 people and a budget of £150 million on developing a pence per mile driven system for ULEZ.

"Project Detroit," measures the mileages driven and delivers a pence per mile charge. Vital for the era when people start each day with 200+ miles of cheap near tax-free home electricity range

No detail yet on how mileage will be charged, and what degree of zoning might be used (high volume areas / time of day), but that will become clear in course.

Got to raise those taxes somehow. Votes don't just buy themselves.

.

I am indeed relieved to hear that there will be pay-by-mile, though I have two issues with the current situation as you describe it:

a. I think that pay-by-mile should be applied at a national level, and not only in ULEZ areas.

b. Labour parties in general will always prefer to recruit hundreds of people and create a bloated and inefficient government department, instead of doing the right thing and outsource the task to the private sector.

 

[markjay]

...So while EV’s may be a jolly good tax dodge today, both for purchase and daily driving, plans are being made to “rectify that.”

And not a minute too soon.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Regarding COVID, when the news channels broadcasted daily footage of Italian army truck convoys leaving the city hospitals in Lombardy full of coffins, there were still people who bizarrely and logically concluded that if we can't measure the exact number of excess death resulting from the disease, then we should assume it's zero. Talk of burying your head in the sand..

Did they assume it was zero?

Or did they assume that, at that point, it just looked like another severe respiratory disease outbreak? Except that this one was better televised?

To this day we still don’t have numbers for the harms caused to the under 25’s, not to the very old by the epidemic. We can measure the enormous ridiculous cost to Europeans, but does the public notice how much the response cost it?

Was it better to lock up and isolate those about to die within the next couple of years “for their own good?” Different opinions exist.

And then there’s the suicides and social harms

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I am indeed relieved to hear that there will be pay-by-mile, though I have two issues with the current situation as you describe it:

a. I think that pay-by-mile should be applied at a national level, and not only in ULEZ areas.

b. Labour parties in general will always prefer to recruit hundreds of people and create a bloated and inefficient government department, instead of doing the right thing and outsource the task to the private sector.

What makes you think that Sadiq isn’t using contractors or the big global tech firms to achieve this?

No intelligent manager, analyst or developer would choose to work for TfL direct. It would be tech career suicide. You can lay money on this being a third party project.

As regards the feasibility of developing a national solution from scratch, I refer you to Tony’s £11,000,000,000 medical record waste of money. It would be like herding hundreds of thousands of cats.

 

[markjay]

What makes you think that Sadiq isn’t using contractors or the big global tech firms to achieve this?

No intelligent manager, analyst or developer would choose to work for TfL direct. It would be tech career suicide. You can lay money on this being a third party project.

As regards the feasibility of developing a national solution from scratch, I refer you to Tony’s £11,000,000,000 medical record waste of money. It would be like herding hundreds of thousands of cats.

I was referring to Labour governments in general... hopefully Sadiq Khan will do better.

 

[grober]

"A bas les aristos"

Parisians vote to triple parking fees for SUVs in latest green push

Paris voters on Sunday backed a proposal from the capital's socialist mayor Anne Hidalgo to triple parking charges on hefty SUV-style cars, according to official results from city hall.

www.france24.com

 

[ChipChop]

You'll be relieved to hear that Labour are employing 157 people and a budget of £150 million on developing a pence per mile driven system for ULEZ.

No doubt the Tony Blair institute for global change *(Aka "the private sector") will be in the running for some of that £150 million budget.