The EV fact thread

[Bellow]

Some good news, too:

UK’s millionth EV registered in January as fleet demand soars

The UK’s millionth battery electric car (BEV) reached the road in January 2024, while the new car market grew and fleet demand continued to soar. The f

fleetworld.co.uk

Other than that headline figure, the news is all bad if more EVs being sold is regarded as good.
Are the fleet cars cars the public will want to buy when their lease fleet period expires?

 

[BTB 500]

Other than that headline figure, the news is all bad if more EVs being sold is regarded as good.

Yup, i.e.

BEV market share for January also grew year-on-year to 14.7%, although this is below the full 2023 performance of 16.5%.

while fleet and business demand for BEVs grew by 41.7% in January, registrations to private buyers fell by 25.1%

The latest independent outlook for the 2024 new car market estimates a total overall volume of 1.974 million units, which is a 4,000-unit increase on the October estimate, but with the BEV forecast reduced to a market share of 21.0% over the year, compared with the 22.3% anticipated in October and the 23.3% expected a year ago.

Deloitte’s Global Automotive Consumer Study, found fewer than one in 10 (9%) would prefer a new and used battery electric vehicle (BEV) as their next car, down from 11% last year.

 

[190]

The interesting fact about the progress of EV sales being decidedly non linear is that it's not just a UK problem. It's the same in Europe and the US. Perhaps not everywhere in the world but in enough countries to embarrass governments that have used a carrot and stick approach to the promotion of EV's only to find the public, like donkeys would prefer to go at their own pace.

I'd put the money on a U turn on the EV quota fines for car manufactures.

On the subject of U turns they are about to do one on the quota fines for Heat pumps vs gas boilers so they will be getting good at it.

Fines for missing heat pump targets could be dropped, Downing Street hints

 

[markjay]

Other than that headline figure, the news is all bad if more EVs being sold is regarded as good.
Are the fleet cars cars the public will want to buy when their lease fleet period expires?

If they're not desirable, then they'll be affordable - so good news again.

 

[Noitz]

If they're not desirable, then they'll be affordable - so good news again.

If they're not desirable it doesn't matter if they're affordable because nobody will want them, so why would that be good news?

 

[markjay]

If they're not desirable it doesn't matter if they're affordable because nobody will want them, so why would that be good news?

Because people will have one less excuse why not to get one ("They're unaffordable").

 

[JHS]

Some good news, too:

UK’s millionth EV registered in January as fleet demand soars

The UK’s millionth battery electric car (BEV) reached the road in January 2024, while the new car market grew and fleet demand continued to soar. The f

fleetworld.co.uk

Registered does not equal sold.

 

[davymead]

Because people will have one less excuse why not to get one ("They're unaffordable").

I genuinely didn’t realise I needed an excuse.

 

[markjay]

Registered does not equal sold.

Even pre-registered cars get sold.... eventually.

 

[JHS]

Even pre-registered cars get sold.... eventually.

Which does not alter the fact that 1 million registered does not equate to 1 million sold.
EVs will not sell in any meaningful numbers until prices come down and private buyers get the same deal that companies and company car drivers get.Without these incentives the sale of EVs would be too small to register in the UK statistics.
Just my opinion. Other opinions are available, but flawed.

 

[markjay]

Which does not alter the fact that 1 million registered does not equate to 1 million sold.
EVs will not sell in any meaningful numbers until prices come down and private buyers get the same deal that companies and company car drivers get.Without these incentives the sale of EVs would be too small to register in the UK statistics.
Just my opinion. Other opinions are available, but flawed.

So what do you think happens to the pre-registered cars? They end-up locked in a barn waiting to decompose? Of course they get sold.

Perhaps what you're trying to say is that dealers pre-register them, then dump them at significant discount, because people just won't pay the RRP - quite possibly, but this is not new, is it? Been going on for years now. That's just part and parcel of the UK car market.

 

[JHS]

So what do you think happens to the pre-registered cars? They end-up locked in a barn waiting to decompose? Of course they get sold.

Perhaps what you're trying to say is that dealers pre-register them, then dump them at significant discount, because people just won't pay the RRP - quite possibly, but this is not new, is it? Been going on for years now. That's just part and parcel of the UK car market.

No, what I am saying is that registered does not equal sold, which is what the article is implying.
Nowhere have I said that preregistered cars are never sold. You are reading something that I have not written.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

If they're not desirable it doesn't matter if they're affordable because nobody will want them, so why would that be good news?

How many people are lucky enough to drive cars which are considered to be desirable? Most people have a car they believe best suits their needs at the price they can afford (or justify).

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

No, what I am saying is that registered does not equal sold, which is what the article is implying.
Nowhere have I said that preregistered cars are never sold. You are reading something that I have not written.

Registered isn’t sold but it’s a very good approximation. I’m not aware of a more accurate measure. Registrations can be measured easily, accurately and consistently, but sales not so much.

 

[markjay]

Registered isn’t sold but it’s a very good approximation. I’m not aware of a more accurate measure. Registrations can be measured easily, accurately and consistently, but sales not so much.

And, unless the pre-registered cars pile-up over time, then what will happen is that while a number of cars will be pre-registered in (say) Q1 2024, we will also see cars pre-registrated in Q4 2023 being sold (as 'nearly new') in Q1 2024. So there's a shift between the annual quarters, but ultimately all pre-registered cars are sold.

 

[Noitz]

How many people are lucky enough to drive cars which are considered to be desirable? Most people have a car they believe best suits their needs at the price they can afford (or justify).

I disagree, many people drive cars they desire. As a previous VW enthusiast in the 70's I drove a car I very much desired, a 1302S Beetle. In fact I've 'desired' every car I've had. Desirable doesn't necessarily mean exotic, collectable or prohibitively expensive. Do I desire a Ferrari, E-Type Jaguar, Nissan Juke, Tesla or Kia Soul, no I don't, I simply don't like them, and there are many more on my list of undesirable cars.

 

[markjay]

I disagree, many people drive cars they desire. As a previous VW enthusiast in the 70's I drove a car I very much desired, a 1302S Beetle. In fact I've 'desired' every car I've had. Desirable doesn't necessarily mean exotic, collectable or prohibitively expensive. Do I desire a Ferrari, E-Type Jaguar, Nissan Juke, Tesla or Kia Soul, no I don't, I simply don't like them, and there are many more on my list of undesirable cars.

I think that the point here is that all cars get sold, eventually. 'Undesirable' simply means that it will be sold for very cheap. But they all get sold. No new car will go straight to the breakers yard after it comes off it's 3-year lease. They all get sold. And, as I pointed out before, in the case if EVs it simply means that second hand EVs will go for very cheap (if thet remain 'undesirable'). I also mentioned before that around 10 years ago a friend of mine bagged a fantastic deal on a 3-years old VW Phaeton, for exactly that reason - people didn't want them (no street creed), but he was very happy with his 'Bentley in disguise' bought for cheap.

 

[JHS]

Registered isn’t sold but it’s a very good approximation. I’m not aware of a more accurate measure. Registrations can be measured easily, accurately and consistently, but sales not so much.

Nothing to disagree with there, but my original point that registrations do not equal sales still applies. The article used registrations to imply that these were all sales, a distortion of the facts.

 

[JHS]

And, unless the pre-registered cars pile-up over time, then what will happen is that while a number of cars will be pre-registered in (say) Q1 2024, we will also see cars pre-registrated in Q4 2023 being sold (as 'nearly new') in Q1 2024. So there's a shift between the annual quarters, but ultimately all pre-registered cars are sold.

Who has ever said otherwise? You seem determined to disprove that registrations do not equal sales for some reason.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

If they're not desirable it doesn't matter if they're affordable because nobody will want them, so why would that be good news?

Exactly. Just like Mondeo, Focus, Fiesta, MINI, BmW 7,6,5,4, 3,2, 1 as well as Mercedes C, E, CLS and S, fleet cars aren’t popular with private buyers.

So when they come off fleet, their resale value falls like a rock. But somehow the public pick them up - at the right price