The EV fact thread

[SmartAmg]

Is that taking into account the (very likely) shorter lifespan of EVs?

Why shorter lifespan?

 

[markjay]

Why shorter lifespan?

Presumably because of high repair costs, especially battery replacement.

It's obviously possible that there'll be a thriving industry of refurbishing batteries and electric motors etc, but the reality is that the tend is going in the opposite direction.

How many businesses were around who could rebuilt an engine, 30 years ago? There was one at every street corner (or industrial estate, rather). How many people actually rebuild engines these days?

I suspect that cars (handing over from ICE to EV) are heading the computer route, I.e. if it fails just bin it and buy new.

 

[ALFAitalia]

What makes you think that the choice of drivetrain shortens the life of a vehicle?


ICE cars are typically scrapped at 115,000 miles after a life of just 15 years.

Exactly........many ICE cars with more miles and older around of course...I own one of them!.....but also loads of high miles EVs out there now 200,000 miles Teslas are common place. If you can keep on top of the electronics in the cabin (same for any modern ICE car really I guess) then there is rather less to go wrong in a EV in the first place. And of course if @BTB 500 was hinting at ICE cars lasting longer....well that just makes an ICE cars carbon output worse...not better!!! Most of its carbon footprint comes from fuel from driving it.....most of an EVs comes from building it....once its on the road its carbon footprint is tiny and getting smaller.....whilst an ICE car's is just getting worse every times its started.

 

[BTB 500]

ICE cars are typically scrapped at 115,000 miles after a life of just 15 years.

What's the source of that data, and is it UK specific/global .. ?? Many ICE cars last much longer than 15 years ... there are over 34,000 pre-2010 cars currently for sale on Autotrader, and 13,000 with over 100k miles (115k isn't a search option). Obviously those are just the cars currently for sale with one advertiser; the total number out there will be much higher.

What makes you think that the choice of drivetrain shortens the life of a vehicle?

I did say "likely" - I wasn't quoting facts as there are very few old EVs around. There are only two pre-2011 for sale on Autotrader, and one of those is a non-runner with a dead battery (at 9,000 miles).

The obvious one is the battery pack, which is likely to put an EV beyond economic repair at some point. For sure IC engines can fail terminally too but (a) this is pretty rare (it's never happened to me in 46 years of driving, and I've had a *lot* of old cars) and (b) it's normally quite realistic to fit a secondhand or reconditioned replacement. Unlike an IC engine EV battery packs also degrade simply with age (not just usage), and at some point the BMS will refuse to charge it due to cells with high internal resistance. It's not the case that it will continue working fine for 20 years with just a gradual reduction in range.

Another thing is the nature of the EV market. Availability of parts and support probably won't be an issue if you buy from industry majors like Ford/BMW/Mercedes/Nissan/etc. (although I read somewhere that MB are already unable to supply replacement batteries for some of their 1st gen hybrids?), but how likely is it that you'll be able to source the electronic widget needed to fix an EV from one of the smaller/newer vendors 15 years from now ... even assuming the company still exists?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Exactly........many ICE cars with more miles and older around of course...I own one of them!.....but also loads of high miles EVs out there now 200,000 miles Teslas are common place. If you can keep on top of the electronics in the cabin (same for any modern ICE car really I guess) then there is rather less to go wrong in a EV in the first place. And of course if @BTB 500 was hinting at ICE cars lasting longer....well that just makes an ICE cars carbon output worse...not better!!! Most of its carbon footprint comes from fuel from driving it.....most of an EVs comes from building it....once its on the road its carbon footprint is tiny and getting smaller.....whilst an ICE car's is just getting worse every times its started.

All fair.
Another theory is that EV's will naturally "fall" into the hands of higher mileage drivers and those looking to drive around cheaply, with ICE elbowed into the grave earlier.

From the student to the pensioner, given the choice between fuelling a £5k used A180 (15p / mile - £1500 a year ) or a £5k used Nissan Leaf (4p / mile - £400 a year) , which is the cheaper car to run? )

The Leaf, by a country mile.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

What's the source of that data, and is it UK specific/global .. ?? Many ICE cars last much longer than 15 years ... there are over 34,000 pre-2010 cars currently for sale on Autotrader, and 13,000 with over 100k miles (115k isn't a search option). Obviously those are just the cars currently for sale with one advertiser; the total number out there will be much higher.

Obviously UK data. You know this. Obviously many ICE cars are scrapped far before their eighth birthday.

Especially if they're owned by people who drive 400 miles a day seven days a week, like yourself, with no time to take a break.

Yes, 0.1% of the 34,000,000 cars in the UK are over 14 years old are currently on sale in Autotrader, but what has that got to do with when cars were scrapped?
If they'd been scrapped, they won't be for sale.

Why are vehicles scrapped? It's because the cost of repair and maintenance exceeds their resale value.

Panel damage, and the need for a new set of tyres and a proper service will bump off a vehicle, regardless of drivetrain.

What Is the Average Lifespan of a Car?

The average lifespan of a car in the UK is the longest it’s ever been. Read our blog to find out why cars are lasting longer before they get scrapped.

www.scrap-car-dealers.co.uk

 

[markjay]

... ICE elbowed into the grave earlier...

True. And this will happen due to a combination of several factors.

Even when the current very generous EV tax breaks are scrapped, in all likelihood EVs will always be taxed less, compared to similar-sized ICE car.

I also envision the tightening of ULEZ-style regulations, with possible bans on private ICE cars entering city centres during peak pollution periods (or just banned from city centres, period).

The assumption that people will continue and drive their old ICE cars and run them into the ground is therefor false... the combination of high running costs (fuel, servicing, and taxation), increasingly hostile environment (ULEZ-style regulations), and disappearing infrastructure (petrol station and garages) will kill-off ICE cars long before their engines throw in the towel.

 

[ALFAitalia]

......but hopefully not in my lifetime!!! I recon I'll need a max of thirty years!! I cant find it now.....but Shell once said that they expected petrol/diesel stations to be viable for "several decades" and possibly until the end of the century! Don't forget that even the most optimistic predictions don't expect more than 25% of cars to be EV before 2035....It going to be a long slow process to get to a point were all cars bar classics are EV.....

 

[BTB 500]

Obviously UK data. You know this. Obviously many ICE cars are scrapped far before their eighth birthday.

Especially if they're owned by people who drive 400 miles a day seven days a week, like yourself, with no time to take a break.

Obviously I didn't know what you were quoting, which is why I asked. So it's an article by a scrap dealer that says the average age of a scrapped car back in 2021 was 16 years, that the lifespan of cars has been steadily increasing for years and:

"Nowadays, you can expect a car to last you upwards of 200,000 miles – perhaps more depending on the make and model of the car and how well you take care of it."

If you're interested in my vehicles, they are 17 years old with 165k miles and 27 years old with 57k miles. Both long overdue for the scrap heap

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

True. And this will happen due to a combination of several factors.

Even when the current very generous EV tax breaks are scrapped, in all likelihood EVs will always be taxed less, compared to similar-sized ICE car.

I also envision the tightening of ULEZ-style regulations, with possible bans on private ICE cars entering city centres during peak pollution periods (or just banned from city centres, period).

The assumption that people will continue and drive their old ICE cars and run them into the ground is therefor false... the combination of high running costs (fuel, servicing, and taxation), increasingly hostile environment (ULEZ-style regulations), and disappearing infrastructure (petrol station and garages) will kill-off ICE cars long before their engines throw in the towel.

Not convinced. There's no EV only city yet. Prime Minister Starmer and Mayor Khan won't ban ICE from our cities, they'll tax them.

it's greenwashed taxation.

 

[markjay]

Not convinced. There's no EV only city yet. Prime Minister Starmer and Mayor Khan won't ban ICE from our cities, they'll tax them..

Possibly, but it will have the same effect - creating a hostile environment for ICE cars, that will push them into an early grave, earlier than most people expect.

 

[BTB 500]

Possibly, but it will have the same effect - creating a hostile environment for ICE cars, that will push them into an early grave, earlier than most people expect.

Agree it will have some impact, but a lot of people never drive in cities so won't care. Even when I worked in London (for 37 years) I never drove in once.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Obviously I didn't know what you were quoting, which is why I asked. So it's an article by a scrap dealer that says the average age of a scrapped car back in 2021 was 16 years, that the lifespan of cars has been steadily increasing for years and:

"Nowadays, you can expect a car to last you upwards of 200,000 miles – perhaps more depending on the make and model of the car and how well you take care of it."

If you're interested in my vehicles, they are 17 years old with 165k miles and 27 years old with 57k miles. Both long overdue for the scrap heap

The "Scrapper" who knows when and why cars are scrapped, is quoting the RAC:

The average age of a car driven in the UK is now the oldest it’s ever been | RAC Drive

www.rac.co.uk

The average car on UK roads is just eight years old. Cars are scrapped because of the need for panel repair, general repair, servicing and tyres, not because of their drivetrain.

A bump to either of your cars will result in an automatic insurance write off.

 

[markjay]

Obviously I didn't know what you were quoting, which is why I asked. So it's an article by a scrap dealer that says the average age of a scrapped car back in 2021 was 16 years, that the lifespan of cars has been steadily increasing for years and:

"Nowadays, you can expect a car to last you upwards of 200,000 miles – perhaps more depending on the make and model of the car and how well you take care of it."

If you're interested in my vehicles, they are 17 years old with 165k miles and 27 years old with 57k miles. Both long overdue for the scrap heap

I don't think that reliability and longevity alone are the determining factors for cars' scrapping age, instead the main factor is most probably the economy.

Demand for new cars, taxation on new cars, and the prices of second hand cars, are all interlinked.

When prices of second hand cars go up, it pushes back the point where a repair becomes uneconomical.

For example, after COVID we saw a shortage of new cars, that led to an increase in second hand car prices, and I am certain that it meant that the average age of cars being scrapped went up significantly during that period - and this is with no change to the technology of these cars.

And, in general, higher standard of living means that more people buy new cars, and more people buy new-er second hands cars, and this causes old cars to fall-of-the-cliff of 'uneconomical to repair' at an earlier point in their life cycle.

Of course, unreliable cars will get scrapped earlier, but again I don't believe that reliability is the most significant factor affecting scrappage age.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Possibly, but it will have the same effect - creating a hostile environment for ICE cars, that will push them into an early grave, earlier than most people expect.

For sure, I'm just pointing out that you're wrong to suggest that ICE will be banned in City centres.

Hasn't happened yet in Europe and won't happen in the UK while there's a Socialist government that needs taxation to give Doctors on six figure incomes (plus pension) a 20% pay rise.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I don't think that reliability and longevity alone are the determining factors for cars' scrapping age, instead the main factor is most probably the economy.

The elderly don't notice that they're spending twice as much on fuel in their old car as in a new one,

and would argue that they don't want to put money into a new vehicle while a couple can have three months on a 99 day P&O cruise for £20k.

"This one can see me out...."

 

[markjay]

The elderly don't notice that they're spending twice as much on fuel in their old car as in a new one,

and would argue that they don't want to put money into a new vehicle while a couple can have three months on a 99 day P&O cruise for £20k.

"This one can see me out...."

True. And the elderly also hang on to their Nokia phones... but it hardly made a dent.

Those who continue driving ICE cars in their old age won't have a significant statistical effect on the scrappage age of ICE cars after 2035.

 

[markjay]

For sure, I'm just pointing out that you're wrong to suggest that ICE will be banned in City centres.

Hasn't happened yet in Europe and won't happen in the UK while there's a Socialist government that needs taxation to give Doctors on six figure incomes (plus pension) a 20% pay rise.

I believe that it will happen sooner than you think.

Young people starting a family will see ICE cars as dinosaurs, and will be very conscious of ensuring clean air for their children.

Just look at the insane number of public chargers in some London boroughs. If you are right, then voters would be unhappy to see their council tax money spent in this way, but this is clearly not the case.

Of course, poorer councils and rural areas will have to accept ICE car usage for longer, but many boroughs will be implementing air quality measures in the near future.

If you look at the London ULEZ extension for example:

Redirect Notice

There's massive support for it in inner London, and massive opposition in outer London. Presumably this correlates with affluence. I think that we'll see a similar pattern when it comes to restricting or banning ICE cars from certain populated areas.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I believe that it will happen sooner than you think.

Young people starting a family will see ICE cars as dinosaurs, and will be very conscious of ensuring clean air for their children.

Just look at the insane number of public chargers in some London boroughs. If you are right, then voters would be unhappy to see their council tax money spent in this way, but this is clearly not the case.

Of course, poorer councils and rural areas will have to accept ICE car usage for longer, but many boroughs will be implementing air quality measures in the near future.

If you look at the London ULEZ extension for example:

Redirect Notice

There's massive support for it in inner London, and massive opposition in outer London. Presumably this correlates with affluence. I think that we'll see a similar pattern when it comes to restricting or banning ICE cars from certain populated areas.

As I said, Prime Minister Starmer needs to raise taxation, he doesn't need to stop people from giving him money via petrol, parking charges, road tax and ULEZ.

Public chargers in central London because they make big money for the Council. They're not there for your health. Rich people live and work in central London and they're easy pickings for the Council. And Westminster wants to take money off people who've driven into town for work or leisure - that's why Westminster's tumbled over themselves to allow Shell / Ubitricity to install lamp post chargers and on-street charging and so pay commission to the Council.

You've quoted a survey that says that residents support ULEZ. It does NOT say that EV's will be banned. It says that diesels are going to be taxed. (And petrol engined cars more than twenty years, but less than 40 years old.)

 

[ChipChop]

I believe that it will happen sooner than you think.

Young people starting a family will see ICE cars as dinosaurs, and will be very conscious of ensuring clean air for their children.

Just look at the insane number of public chargers in some London boroughs. If you are right, then voters would be unhappy to see their council tax money spent in this way, but this is clearly not the case.

Of course, poorer councils and rural areas will have to accept ICE car usage for longer, but many boroughs will be implementing air quality measures in the near future.

If you look at the London ULEZ extension for example:

Redirect Notice

There's massive support for it in inner London, and massive opposition in outer London. Presumably this correlates with affluence. I think that we'll see a similar pattern when it comes to restricting or banning ICE cars from certain populated areas.

The 2016 UK EU Independence referendum result shows how unrepresentative of the UK as a whole the inner Londoncentric view is.

Saying that i am fine with inner Londoners having a ULEZ if they want it as long as outer Londoners, who do not want it, are exempted. But then again i wager Inner Londoners would object most strongly if their endless international air travel was in some way restricted to also 'save the planet'.