The EV fact thread

[MikeInWimbledon]

Am not sure about that tbh. UK Govt currently subsidising ICE fuel with £Billions each year, through tax breaks and production subsidies, with no end in sight. At the same time ev support at the user end is disappearing fast. Govt behave as though carbon fuels are the only future, which they really aren’t. Its money is going to these energy companies; economics of the madhouse and poisonous misinformation by Govt to back their actions up..

I'm sorry, that's nonsense.

55% of the price you pay for petrol or diesel is tax. From memory about £20 billion a year.

On top of that Oil companies pay billions of taxes in many different forms, from employment to VAT.

Yes, "we" given them tax breaks and incentives to do certain things such as to open or close oil fields, but we do that only to take revenue from them in the future and to recognise the cost of opening and closing fields. I think recent headline tax income from the profits on UK oil and gas production was around £10 billion. (It varies with market prices)

A billion here, a billion there, soon it adds up to serious money.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Unless the report itself is spreading misinformation with the two fundamental points I highlighted.

I think the scale of misinformation in government is less self-evident. Government has ended up supporting a subsidised market of expensive heavy nice EVs for those who can afford them - leaving the majority in a disadvantaged situation coerced to pay over the odds for inferior vehicles.

There has to be better way.

Yes, in the same way that the UK, like Germany, has been supporting a market of expensive heavy ICE's for business use. Those Jaguar's, Range Rovers, Fords and Vauxhalls get various tax breaks (Capital allowances, VAT, Benefit in Kind) as their users run around in busyness.

The public then get the advantage of buying those vehicles used at a substantial discount. From the GP's used Volvo to the Director's used Jaag, via the IT Consultant's used BMW 3 series.

European Governments have simply used the tools available to them to nudge (well, shove TBH) consumers in another direction.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

It’s not just an EV thing. Cars which sell mostly to fleets have always required heavy discounting in order to sell brand new to private buyers, and often ended up as pre-registered cars at car supermarkets.
Using the same Vauxhall Omega example as @markjay my father in law bought a delivery miles per-registered Vauxhall Omega 2.5 CD with a list price of c£24k. He paid £10k for it, delivery miles.
A year later he was part-exchanging it to the same dealer and I stopped the deal and bought it for what the dealer had offered him, which was £5,400. I just checked, and it had covered 10,675 miles.
He bought it pre-registered with deivery miles for <42% of the list price. I bought it from him a year later for <23% of the list price with <11k miles (and it was just serviced by Vauxhall too).

Pricing has always been "imaginative."

Suckers buy at list. (Apologies to anyone who has)

Fleets get what appears to be a discount because the original price is deliberately pumped up, in order to then discount.
Pre-registration for the private market is just another way of "giving a discount" to the public off an artificially high price.
As is low interest rate PCP and leasing deals.
PCP's: just another way of suckering people into paying ludicrous monthly amounts, and going over the top when they don't renegotiate at the end of term

The premium for Mercedes and BMW? Well, quality has a price, but so has assiduous marketing, racing, product placement and product development - from ABS & Air bags to Lane Assist.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Lords Committee report reveals that the UK’s EV strategy needs a ‘rapid recharge’ | RAC Drive

A Lords Committee report on the current state of the EV industry has stated that urgent changes are needed for the UK to meet its net zero emissions targets.

www.rac.co.uk

"The Government’s report stated that there are six main issues facing the EV sector:
* EVs make up about only 3% of all cars currently on UK roads
* EVs are still more expensive than their petrol and diesel counterparts
* The availability of public charge points across the UK is highly variable
* Drivers’ anxiety over EV charge reliability and affordability
* Lack of clear communication and leadership from the Government
* The scale of misinformation and lack of tackling this from Government and industry"
This last one is self-evident...........

Did they expect to replace 35 million ICE cars in one year? A million EV's on the road is still a surprise to anyone in 2013 forecasting a decade ahead.

Responsibility for "education?" The UK Government can't teach basic numeracy or literacy, so good luck with that one.

It's on the industry's shoulders to work with consumers- from journalism, through sales materials to the dealership. Only the individual can work out that "maybe" saving a grand a year on fuel and road tax justifies buying a new tech over an old tech.

Looking at "saving the planet" it from a purely financial perspective. (Who cares if French ski resorts go out of business because winters are mild, if Texas burns, or California is wracked with storms?)

 

[markjay]

Did they expect to replace 35 million ICE cars in one year? A million EV's on the road is still a surprise to anyone in 2013 forecasting a decade ahead...

The relevant figure, as far as the government's current targets are concerning, is what percentage of all new car sold are EVs.

The question of how long it will take for all cars on our roads to be EVs, is a separate one. Obviously, we're talking of decades not years.

EDIT: I should say 'zero exhaust emissions' rather than 'EV', but at current it does not seem that alternative technologies to BEV are having an impact.

 

[Dryce]

The public then get the advantage of buying those vehicles used at a substantial discount. From the GP's used Volvo to the Director's used Jaag, via the IT Consultant's used BMW 3 series.

I don't agree with this logic.

It creates a small secondary niche market for the higher end heavier tax subsidised vehicles.

It doesn't solve the basic imbalance in the market where there are not reasonably priced attractive EV equivalents of a Fiesta or Focus.

Now if the market did provide a wider range of attractive new EVs and the subsidies increased their sales and created a secondary market for newish used ones then there might be better justification for the tax subsidies. The tax subsidies might not actually be necessary. Or they might only be directed at the lower cost vehicles.

 

[markjay]

I don't agree with this logic.

It creates a small secondary niche market for the higher end heavier tax subsidised vehicles.

It doesn't solve the basic imbalance in the market where there are not reasonably priced attractive EV equivalents of a Fiesta or Focus.

Now if the market did provide a wider range of attractive new EVs and the subsidies increased their sales and created a secondary market for newish used ones then there might be better justification for the tax subsidies. The tax subsidies might not actually be necessary. Or they might only be directed at the lower cost vehicles.

Until mid-2022, all buyers (including private buyers) of new EVs or plug-in hybrid cars, were eligible for a grant of up to £5,000. From memory, this applied to cars with RRP under £35,000, which covered many entry-level models of modern BEVs including the VW ID.3 & 4, IONIQ 5, Skoda Enyaq, etc etc. It seems that for some reason the government does not see the need any more to incentivise private buyers of new small and medium size EVs, with the current incentives being applied almost exclusively to business users.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

The relevant figure, as far as the government's current targets are concerning, is what percentage of all new car sold are EVs.
The question of how long it will take for all cars on our roads to be EVs, is a separate one. Obviously, we're talking of decades not years.
EDIT: I should say 'zero exhaust emissions' rather than 'EV', but at current it does not seem that alternative technologies to BEV are having an impact.

Exactly, which is why point one of the six points highlighted by the Government's report is nonsense:

"* EVs make up about only 3% of all cars currently on UK roads" Irrelevant.

EV Market sales share in 2023 was 13% which was remarkable. And the trend is still upward.

What it'll take to reach the target of 18% for 2024: that's an interesting subject. Is there a Chinese take away here?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I don't agree with this logic.
It creates a small secondary niche market for the higher end heavier tax subsidised vehicles.
It doesn't solve the basic imbalance in the market where there are not reasonably priced attractive EV equivalents of a Fiesta or Focus.
Now if the market did provide a wider range of attractive new EVs and the subsidies increased their sales and created a secondary market for newish used ones then there might be better justification for the tax subsidies. The tax subsidies might not actually be necessary. Or they might only be directed at the lower cost vehicles.

Would it be churlish to point out that half of the 35 million vehicles on the road are over eight years old,

and that tax incentives on new, lighter weight "right-sized" Euro 6 vehicles would have achieved far more CO2 reduction than the bold jump towards EVs? Probably.

But then poor people would choose to buy a new £15k Ford Focus, rather than take the bus or train. And that would never do.

Young adults would stop running towards the big Cities for their public transport systems. And that would never do.

 

[Petrol Pete]

Indeed. There was a story yesterday about a pre-reg 2023 Polestar with 170 miles on the clock that had been reduced to £30k (original list price of around £60k new) without selling so far. Just had a quick look on AutoTrader and saw this one:

View attachment 152894

View attachment 152893

List price for a new one has dropped now but is still £49k without any options.

I think future owners might be worried that Polestar will not exist soon . Difficult (or impossible) to find spare parts , not right away , but if Volvo give up on it they might become worthless.

 

[BTB 500]

It’s not just an EV thing. Cars which sell mostly to fleets have always required heavy discounting in order to sell brand new to private buyers, and often ended up as pre-registered cars at car supermarkets.

Presumably due to accidental over-production? Can't see why they'd be desperate to get private buyers to take these particular models otherwise

Of course normal models sometimes get pre-registered too, to help achieve end of month/quarter/year sales targets etc. E.g. I bought a 6 week old Honda Jazz that way.

Using the same Vauxhall Omega example as @markjay my father in law bought a delivery miles per-registered Vauxhall Omega 2.5 CD with a list price of c£24k. He paid £10k for it, delivery miles.

Had it been registered for over 12 months though? That's the unusual bit with the pre-reg EVs being listed now, IMHO. A lot of capital to have tied up for a year or more.

 

[BTB 500]

I think future owners might be worried that Polestar will not exist soon . Difficult (or impossible) to find spare parts , not right away , but if Volvo give up on it they might become worthless.

It could be a factor, but as I understand it Volvo have sold their share of Polestar to Geely (their own parent company). So Polestar will still be around, but as a purely Chinese brand.

 

[markjay]

It could be a factor, but as I understand it Volvo have sold their share of Polestar to Geely (their own parent company). So Polestar will still be around, but as a purely Chinese brand.

It is interesting that the Polestar brand is being differentiated from the Volvo brand, given the (intended) visual similarities in design between the two.

Ford did the same (design similarities) at the time with Jaguar, BTW.

 

[Petrol Pete]

Didn't the boss of Volvo recently say something like 'Polestar is just a black hole we keep throwing money into..' ?

 

[markjay]

Didn't the boss of Volvo recently say something like 'Polestar is just a black hole we keep throwing money into..' ?

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/volvos-polestar-troubles-signal-shakeout-time-ev-industry-2024-02-01/

"Volvo's decision to halt Polestar investments came after the money-losing luxury EV offshoot brand missed a 2023 delivery target that had already been repeatedly revised downward.

Polestar needs another $1.3 billion in funding before it reaches the break-even point in 2025. Its stock has dropped 87% since it debuted in June 2022, limiting its ability to raise fresh capital.

Geely, among China's largest automakers, sold nearly 2.8 million vehicles in 2023 - roughly four times the number of vehicles as Volvo.

Geely Chair Li Shufu aims to expand exports from China and gain economies of scale across brands including Western nameplates Volvo, Smart and Lotus. With full control of Polestar, Geely could streamline investment and technology sharing, analysts said."

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I think future owners might be worried that Polestar will not exist soon . Difficult (or impossible) to find spare parts , not right away , but if Volvo give up on it they might become worthless.

Why would Volvo give up? It’s a European subsidiary of a huge Chinese firm.

Moving Polestar’s ownership back to China is an accounting / tax avoidance technique, obscuring Polestar’s subsidised entrance into the European market. No different to MG et al…

That said, if Trump and van der Leyen erect trade walls against China, from EV’s to IKEA, , we’re going to have to revisit this whole shebang.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I don't agree with this logic.

It creates a small secondary niche market for the higher end heavier tax subsidised vehicles.

It doesn't solve the basic imbalance in the market where there are not reasonably priced attractive EV equivalents of a Fiesta or Focus.

Now if the market did provide a wider range of attractive new EVs and the subsidies increased their sales and created a secondary market for newish used ones then there might be better justification for the tax subsidies. The tax subsidies might not actually be necessary. Or they might only be directed at the lower cost vehicles.

You’ve forgotten that the industry has been working on cheap EVs for the last four years.

From Ora Funky Cat to the new Tesla baby, via the ID3, MINI, MG et al.

 

[Dryce]

But then poor people would choose to buy a new £15k Ford Focus, rather than take the bus or train. And that would never do.

My view is that we have missed the opportunity to set a path for small micro/mini EVs as urban private transport. Smaller vehicles with low emission.

Promoting these would increase competition with public transport - but at the same time why should buses or trains always be the didactic future if there is the opportunity to improve the private / individual transport options.

(At the moment we seem to have the worst of both worlds).

 

[markjay]

My view is that we have missed the opportunity to set a path for small micro/mini EVs as urban private transport. Smaller vehicles with low emission.

Promoting these would increase competition with public transport - but at the same time why should buses or trains always be the didactic future if there is the opportunity to improve the private / individual transport options.

(At the moment we seem to have the worst of both worlds).

The Italians got it right:

And they don't need 'Right to Repair' legislation, either:

 

[BTB 500]

The Italians got it right:

As an aside I saw this a few days ago:

MILAN, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Stellantis will slow down operations at its Mirafiori plant, in Turin, this month and next in response to weak market demand for its fully-electric Fiat 500 small car and Maserati models, a spokesman for the automaker said on Monday.

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-slow-operations-fiat-turin-plant-weak-demand-2024-02-05/