The EV fact thread

[markjay]

So no local air quality problems data then and the emergency services have good access to your location.

FTFY

 

[ChipChop]

FTFY

You can get any air quality data you like depending on where you choose to site the monitoring equipment. Kerbside monitoring will always be higher than roadside or urban background. So why not just cut to the chase and plant environmentally beneficial natural solutions like plants & trees in known blackspots as a matter of course.

 

[Dryce]

If those who can do, and those who won’t don’t, then it will all sort itself out in the end.

Eventually even expensive brand new EVs will become inexpensive older EVs, just like the expensive brand new ICEs will become inexpensive older ICEs.

There is an issue with the duration of 'eventually'. Sales of those expensive brand new EVs need to pickup. These are potentially undermined by the level of new prices - and if the used prices are too low relative to new then the lease / PCP monthlies will be high. This is the opposite of the diesel pricing debacle from the mid 2000s where diesel cars became more attractive new.

A friend in the car trade is quite phlegmatic at the moment - the market is in a mess.

BEV sales at 17.6% in May - well below the 22%. SMMT reported 2% drop in new private sales - 'only 98 vehicles' - which implies out of the almost 150000 vehicles sold that only 4800 were privately bought BEV. This tends to continue to confirm the distortions on the market as businesses but (though it may also be that there pre-registrations skewing even those figures).

So EVs are an unmitigated horror story .... well no. The sales of PHEVs are lower than BEVs but have risen more. And HEVs skulk along in the mix as well.

I wonder if the government regulators and vehicle manufacturers might not find compromise if it would be accepted that PHEVs with range over a sensible minimal threshold should be included in the 22% target.

The reality is probably that PHEVs are actually being used substantially as BEVs - especially in urban areas.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Thank heavens the EU regulators are planning to increase the price of these cheap Chinese EV’s like the MG.

Doesn’t apply in the UK as yet, but no doubt Mr Starmer will pledge allegiance to Brussels in July or August.

As for 22%. That’s the manufacturers problem. They’ll be forced to drop prices or pay €15k a pop fines. (Unless the new more Conservative EU parliament changes its mind. Which it might.). Dontcha love SU deadlines? “That whoosh as they go by.”

 

[Dryce]

Are you referring to ULEZ? If so, why can't people replace a 20 years old Diesel car with a 20 years old petrol car? Two different people I know had Hondas (Jazz and CR-V), both 2002 cars, and both ULEZ compliant. The Jazz was given away for free (it was probably worth £500), the CR-V went at the time for £1,500-1,700.

So .... given away for free.

Not desirable then ?

My observation of colleagues and friends who operate in bangernomics territory with their cars is that there is a reason people don't pay much for 20 year old functioning ULEZ compliant vehicles - and that is perceived risks / hassle. For every good car there's a bad one - and most owners won't tolerate the hassles / uncertainty / time required.

I run an older car and the economics of replacing it with something newer mean .... I should hang on to it. I'm a sad old git who spreadsheets his car ownership and makes projections. There is no sensible case to replace it at current newish car prices. The only logic for replacing it is actually hassle - the costs of a new car would cover its occasional bursts of LEZ and ULEZ charge/fines for my use case and maintenance on the older car if looking at covering those. But that hassle - particularly of unplanned maintenance is something that many of us are willing to pay to avoid.

 

[Dryce]

As for 22%. That’s the manufacturers problem. They’ll be forced to drop prices or pay €15k a pop fines. (Unless the new more Conservative EU parliament changes its mind. Which it might.). Dontcha love SU deadlines? “That whoosh as they go by.”

That manufacturers' problem becomes our problem unless there are some significant underlying price and technology shifts.

I suspect that playing with the rules and mitigating that 22% in some way will be cheaper and better for everyone.

 

[markjay]

So .... given away for free.

Not desirable then ?

The Jazz was SORNed and belonged to a family member who passed away, and was given to a friend of the family. My point was that because it was gifted, I can only estimate the value. I wasnt suggesting that people give them away. The reason that I know the value of the CR-X is that it had the cat stolen and so I checked some adds on AT to see if it would be a write off (it wasn't, the insurer paid for a complete new exhaust).

 

[BTB 500]

The EU is announcing today that it will put tariffs of up to 48% on Chinese EV imports. Good old Brussel Sprouts !!

Seems this will affect Tesla (and presumably others who manufacture in China but are not Chinese companies):

BERLIN, June 13 (Reuters) - Tesla expects to increase the price of its Model 3 because of European Union import duties on electric vehicles (EVs) made in China, the carmaker said on its website on Thursday.
The message, displayed on Tesla's website for countries including Germany, France, Ireland, Belgium and Hungary, urged prospective buyers to place their orders in June. The message did not specify the size of the expected price increase.

"We're anticipating a requirement for us to increase pricing for Model 3 vehicles as of 1 July 2024," it said. "This is due to additional import duties likely to be imposed on electric vehicles manufactured in China and sold in the EU".

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-expects-hike-price-china-made-cars-eu-due-tariffs-2024-06-13/

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Seems this will affect Tesla (and presumably others who manufacture in China but are not Chinese companies):

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-expects-hike-price-china-made-cars-eu-due-tariffs-2024-06-13/

If you click through the more precise quote from the EU is as follows:
"Tesla, which exports Model 3 cars from Shanghai to Europe, was one of several companies that the European Commission said had cooperated with its investigation and would therefore be subject to a lower tariff of 21%. The Commission added that Tesla could receive an individually calculated rate of duty on its China-made EVs when definitive duties are imposed in November."

And obviously, this means that European Tesla Y's, which have been made in Berlin since it was launched, won't be subject to such an import duty into the EU.

The Tesla 3 is about a quarter of Tesla's UK sales, by unit, and a fifth of UK Sales by value. EU figures are probably similar.

https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/giga-berlin#:~:text=Gigafactory%20Berlin%2DBrandenburg%20is%20Tesla's,manufactured%20at%20Gigafactory%20Berlin%2DBrandenburg.

 

[markjay]

If you click through the more precise quote from the EU is as follows:
"Tesla, which exports Model 3 cars from Shanghai to Europe, was one of several companies that the European Commission said had cooperated with its investigation and would therefore be subject to a lower tariff of 21%. The Commission added that Tesla could receive an individually calculated rate of duty on its China-made EVs when definitive duties are imposed in November."

And obviously, this means that European Tesla Y's, which have been made in Berlin since it was launched, won't be subject to such an import duty into the EU.

The Tesla 3 is about a quarter of Tesla's UK sales, by unit, and a fifth of UK Sales by value. EU figures are probably similar.

https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/giga-berlin#:~:text=Gigafactory%20Berlin%2DBrandenburg%20is%20Tesla's,manufactured%20at%20Gigafactory%20Berlin%2DBrandenburg.

It all depends on how much cheaper it is to make a Tesla in China than in Berlin... it might still be a good idea to keep making them in China and pay the 21% tariff....

 

[BTB 500]

If you click through the more precise quote from the EU is as follows:
"Tesla, which exports Model 3 cars from Shanghai to Europe, was one of several companies that the European Commission said had cooperated with its investigation and would therefore be subject to a lower tariff of 21%. The Commission added that Tesla could receive an individually calculated rate of duty on its China-made EVs when definitive duties are imposed in November."

And obviously, this means that European Tesla Y's, which have been made in Berlin since it was launched, won't be subject to such an import duty into the EU.

The Tesla 3 is about a quarter of Tesla's UK sales, by unit, and a fifth of UK Sales by value. EU figures are probably similar.

Interesting, so BMW will also be paying 21% on the X1/X3/X5, but Audi / VW / Skoda get the top rate of 38.1%?!

Wonder how much of this the manufactures will be able to absorb in the current EV market.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

It all depends on how much cheaper it is to make a Tesla in China than in Berlin... it might still be a good idea to keep making them in China and pay the 21% tariff....

Of course it's cheaper to build a car (or laptop, or tablet or phone) in China. The issue for Tesla will be whether to lose the profit.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Interesting, so BMW will also be paying 21% on the X1/X3/X5, but Audi / VW / Skoda get the top rate of 38.1%?!

Wonder how much of this the manufactures will be able to absorb in the current EV market.

Pardon? Are you saying that VAG import all their vehicles into the EU from China? That's news to me.

 

[markjay]

Historically, imposing tariffs (and/or threats of) on Japanese imports to Europe and the US worked well, forcing Toyota, Honda, and Nissan to start manufacturing cars and subassemblies in the local markets, as well as establishing partnerships with local car manufactures. That was in the eighties and nineties. I wonder it the currently proposed tariffs on Chinese imports will have a similar positive effect.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Pardon? Are you saying that VAG import all their vehicles into the EU from China? That's news to me.

Perhaps a reference to both BMW and Volkswagen taking a controlling stake (c75%) in their joint ventures in China with Brilliance and JAC respectively.

Prior to 2017, Chinese government policy demanded that all foreign-owned car manufacturers must form a JV with a Chinese manufacturer with a 51% controlling stake.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Historically, imposing tariffs (and/or threats of) on Japanese imports to Europe and the US worked well, forcing Toyota, Honda, and Nissan to start manufacturing cars and subassemblies in the local markets, as well as establishing partnerships with local car manufactures. That was in the eighties and nineties. I wonder it the currently proposed tariffs on Chinese imports will have a similar positive effect.

The same approach has worked well for the Chinese car manufacturers and automotive industry - although they went a step further and insisted on joint ventures with the Chinese party holding a controlling stake of 51% - enabling them to benefit significantly from established western car manufacturers.

 

[BTB 500]

Pardon? Are you saying that VAG import all their vehicles into the EU from China? That's news to me.

SAIC Volkswagen is one of the companies listed by Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-based-ev-makers-hit-with-european-union-tariffs-2024-06-12/

From a quick Google "virtually all" the cars they build are for the Chinese market so it could just be that the high tariff is to dissuade them from exporting to Europe in future. Seems quite a complex situation:

EU's tariffs may stall SAIC's exports of EV but do little to keep BYD at bay, analysts say

The European Union's proposed import tariffs on electric vehicles (EVs) will do little to keep Chinese brands at Europe's gate, as the most innovative and cost-effective assemblers like BYD can overcome any hurdle, analysts said. "The tariffs will only affect Chinese brands' exports to Europe in...

uk.finance.yahoo.com

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Perhaps a reference to both BMW and Volkswagen taking a controlling stake (c75%) in their joint ventures in China with Brilliance and JAC respectively.
Prior to 2017, Chinese government policy demanded that all foreign-owned car manufacturers must form a JV with a Chinese manufacturer with a 51% controlling stake.

Naturally, in line with all the traditions of local JV's in Africa, South America, India, and so on.

But why is it being suggested that VAG is importing those locally made cars into the EU ?

BMW imported South African bog standard Dreiers into the EU for a while, and the Germans imported American made SUV's, but it's news if VAG are importing kit all the way in from Shanghai. Why would you with cheap production areas readily to hand ?

 

[fabes]

Thread drift alert

Whilst the EU and others are pushing EVs to reduce emissions, Russia has apparently put back regional progress by several years through the war.

No stats nor data, it was a throw away comment by an independent environment firm I read on a work piece (on CDP reporting) but likely correct, it does put all the effectiveness of all the effort and cost in perspective.

But back to EVs.....

 

[markjay]

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