The EV fact thread

[ChipChop]

What happens to the EV's current USP, cheap off peak overnight charging, in a future where 80% of new car registrations are EV's? How long until the current off peak becomes a new peak driven by those 1.5+ million new EV registrations a year?

 

[SmartAmg]

What happens to the EV's current USP, cheap off peak overnight charging, in a future where 80% of new car registrations are EV's? How long until the current off peak becomes a new peak driven by those 1.5+ million new EV registrations a year?

Not long, probably.

 

[Dryce]

I have no doubt that will see much more self-driving tech in new cars very soon, but regarding autonomous cars will take considerably longer before they are commonplace.

Yes.

But.

The impression being given by some tech companies and academics and by media over 5 years ago was that progress would be much more dramatic.

At the same time there has been an overlap with simpler more contained systems in cars such as lane keeping assistance and anti-collision systems which are much more widely deployed - and perhaps even taken for granted.

I think my view is that there has been an over-optimism and a situation where technology and transition has been talked up and that has influenced the expectations not just of the public - but of policy makers.

 

[markjay]

What happens to the EV's current USP, cheap off peak overnight charging, in a future where 80% of new car registrations are EV's? How long until the current off peak becomes a new peak driven by those 1.5+ million new EV registrations a year?

Again: software.

Energy costs can change dynamically to optimise use of resources.

If you've ever used an Uber, they do something similar - they manage demand by dynamically altering the ride fare.

FreeNow (previously Halo) are doing the same in London. It's great: I can get a black cab any time I want - as long as I am prepared to pay the higher fare. If I can't or don't want to pay it, I'll need to schedule my journey to when demand is lower.

Come to think of it, airlines do the same....

In future, with AI and Quantum computing, this will come even more efficient.

The point is that we should stop thinking of EV chargers in the same way that we think of petrol stations.

 

[markjay]

...At the same time there has been an overlap with simpler more contained systems in cars such as lane keeping assistance and anti-collision systems which are much more widely deployed - and perhaps even taken for granted...

These are the building blocks of self driving and autonomous driving.

 

[ChipChop]

Again: software.

Energy costs can change dynamically to optimise use of resources.

If you've ever used an Uber, they do something similar - they manage demand by dynamically altering the ride fare.

FreeNow (previously Halo) are doing the same in London. It's great: I can get a black cab any time I want - as long as I am prepared to pay the higher fare. If I can't or don't want to pay it, I'll need to schedule my journey to when demand is lower.

Come to think of it, airlines do the same....

In future, with AI and Quantum computing, this will come even more efficient.

The point is that we should stop thinking of EV chargers in the same way that we think of petrol stations.

Arguing that inflationary pressures such as dynamic pricing for utilities are a positive is a bold argument? As is the notion that AI will at some indeterminate point in the future create efficiencies. AI requires vast amounts of power to function and its potential impact on the future world of work is frankly terrifying.

 

[BTB 500]

Again: software.

Energy costs can change dynamically to optimise use of resources.

I assume that's why smart meters (a prerequisite for any of the special tariffs) are being defaulted to half-hourly readings - to provide more granular data. You have to specifically opt out of the change if you previously had daily or monthly readings and want to stay on those settings. This came from OVO a few days ago but I think is a general change (originating from Ofgem, IIRC)?

Most smart meters will soon start sending readings every 30 minutes as standard. If yours doesn't already, it will switch to half-hourly readings in 7 to 10 days.

This helps us supply cheaper electricity, with as much as possible coming from renewable sources.​

​

 

[BTB 500]

Mercedes EV making big strides into the HGV market, but they’ll never catch on……

Amazon Orders Over 200 Electric Trucks - Bridge Classic Cars

Amazon has placed its largest-ever order for electric heavy goods vehicles (eHGVs), buying over 200 Mercedes-Benz eActros 600 trucks. This is the biggest single order of electric trucks in the history of Mercedes-Benz Trucks and forms part of Amazon’s aim to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by...

bridgeclassiccars.co.uk

Seems like a reasonable use case as I assume Amazon shipments are on average relatively low density (light for their volume). That truck has a 4.5 tonne battery, which would presumably eat into the payload.

 

[BTB 500]

I can get a black cab any time I want - as long as I am prepared to pay the higher fare. If I can't or don't want to pay it, I'll need to schedule my journey to when demand is lower.

But a high percentage of people who work (and many who don't) will likely need to charge EVs overnight when supply is low (no solar power). Energy storage (big batteries) seems the only way to match demand with supply?

Drone footage shows fire at one of world's largest battery plants

The Moss Landing power plant, in California, was evacuated, as were people in the surrounding area.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[markjay]

Arguing that inflationary pressures such as dynamic pricing for utilities are a positive is a bold argument?

Your argument would make senses if you insisted on a standard rate for electricity, regardless of the time-of-day.

But what exactly is the difference between fixed off-peak times/rates and dynamic off-peak times/rates?

The price cap remains the same, it's simply a question of when do you provide the discount, and how you do you discount it by.

The latter (dynamic) is much more efficient, and also answers the question you have raised.

Arguing that inflationary pressures such as dynamic pricing for utilities are a positive is a bold argument? some indeterminate point in the future create efficiencies. AI requires vast amounts of power to function and its potential impact on the future world of work is frankly terrifying.

Indeed, AI will have some negatives, however the same was said about the Internet back in the nineties.

But setting aside the bigger AI discussion, even accepting that AI will have some undesirable sides to it, it's definitely coming. Why reject the good things that AI can bring? It makes as much sense as never Googling for medical advice or for cheap car insurance, because the Internet is used by criminals to perpetrate fraud or for other illegal activities.

 

[markjay]

I assume that's why smart meters (a prerequisite for any of the special tariffs) are being defaulted to half-hourly readings - to provide more granular data. You have to specifically opt out of the change if you previously had daily or monthly readings and want to stay on those settings. This came from OVO a few days ago but I think is a general change (originating from Ofgem, IIRC)?

​

Sounds about right.

More data, better analysis, improved efficiencies.

This is why we have computers.....

 

[markjay]

Seems like a reasonable use case as I assume Amazon shipments are on average relatively low density (light for their volume). That truck has a 4.5 tonne battery, which would presumably eat into the payload.

And if the trucks have a fixed/planned route, then it's a no-brainer. And yes, they could have used the railroad, if there was one between the two destinations. Actually, it reminds me of this:

Road train - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

What happens to the EV's current USP, cheap off peak overnight charging, in a future where 80% of new car registrations are EV's? How long until the current off peak becomes a new peak driven by those 1.5+ million new EV registrations a year?

EVs have lots of benefits, although you’re right, low running costs have been a valuable benefit for the early adopter who can charge at home. EVs are still viable forms of transport without cheap off-peak overnight charging. A large number of EV drivers don’t use reduced overnight.

Taxation and supply and demand determines our fuel costs today, so it seems safe to assume that the same will be true in the future.

However I’m guessing that taxation and pricing will evolve to reflect the changing supply and demand of electricity. In future as the proportion of renewable energy increases, then it may be that there is a surplus of electricity at other times of the day, week, month or year not just overnight.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

The impression being given by some tech companies and academics and by media over 5 years ago was that progress would be much more dramatic.

When has that not been the case with technology and progress? Tomorrow’s World is probably full of optimistic timescales. Anyone who believes that such timescales will be 100% delivered is perhaps a little naive.

 

[markjay]

But a high percentage of people who work (and many who don't) will likely need to charge EVs overnight when supply is low (no solar power). Energy storage (big batteries) seems the only way to match demand with supply?

Drone footage shows fire at one of world's largest battery plants

The Moss Landing power plant, in California, was evacuated, as were people in the surrounding area.

www.bbc.co.uk

Battery storage addresses a bigger issue, and that’s the waste when producing electricity at times when there's low demand. It's a complex issue, because the production capacity of a power stations can only be tuned-up or tuned-down by that much, and bringing online auxiliary power stations is a massive pain. It goes beyond the economic issue, it's the fact that we are burning whatever it is that we are burning (gas, coal, etc) to produce electricity that goes nowhere. Even with nuclear energy and renewables, adjusting the energy production on-the-fly is not straightforward. This is all explained well here (I posted this link before):

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Regarding EV charging, there are many ways of managing it, again it's all down to data collection and software.

For example, not only could there be a different tariff for charging during off-peak time (which - as said - does not have to be nighttime - it can change dynamically), but also for charging speed - i.e. you could pay (say) 2p per kW if you set the charging speed of your home charger to 3kW, or (say) 25p if you set it to the maximum possible (7kW or 11kW or whatever it might be). That's a great way of managing demand.

In fact, you could even instruct the software to 'charge at (say) 5p per kW', and the charger will adjust the speed and time of charging accordingly. Or, you could instruct the charger to achieve the set battery percentage at the set time (say 80% by 6:00am) and the cheapest possible combination, and let the software work it out.

Then, we can prioritise charging capacity and speed for (say) emergency vehicles, nurses and doctors on standby, people with mobility issues, etc etc. The possibilities are endless.

Give this problem to any young code writer, and they’ll laugh at how simple a problem it is to resolve.

I'll paraphrase on something that I heard said in a documentary about the Captain of the doomed Titanic: Our issue with getting our heads around EVs, is that our forum members have decades of experience working against them.

I'll leave it there....

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Arguing that inflationary pressures such as dynamic pricing for utilities are a positive is a bold argument?

Why should dynamic pricing be an inflationary pressure? Costs increase if you choose only to consume at peak times, costs go down if you choose only to consume at off peak times, and most people do a bit of both.

It’s not a new concept, supply & demand. Prices for potatoes go down when there have been bumper crops, and go up when crops are ruined. A greengrocer on the market puts up the price of sprouts in December, and reduces them in January.

Having the option reduce costs for those who need to - or can - must be a positive surely? If that also allows people to consume energy when there is least environment impact that that must also be a good thing, or at least I believe it is.

 

[ChipChop]

Your argument would make senses if you insisted on a standard rate for electricity, regardless of the time-of-day.

But what exactly is the difference between fixed off-peak times/rates and dynamic off-peak times/rates?

The price cap remains the same, it's simply a question of when do you provide the discount, and how you do you discount it by.

The latter (dynamic) is much more efficient, and also answers the question you have raised.






Indeed, AI will have some negatives, however the same was said about the Internet back in the nineties.

But setting aside the bigger AI discussion, even accepting that AI will have some undesirable sides to it, it's definitely coming. Why reject the good things that AI can bring? It makes as much sense as never Googling for medical advice or for cheap car insurance, because the Internet is used by criminals to perpetrate fraud or for other illegal activities.

Consumers are instructed to be frugal (efficient) with their energy use while AI power use is already off the charts and rising exponentially.

Lots of data centers are situated in the Republic of Ireland. 18% of all electricity used in the ROI in 2022 was used to power data centers. That figure is forecast to rise to 32% by next year. A third of all power consumed by data centers. A staggering figure. Needless to say Amazon Web Services has many facilities in Ireland.

 

[Dryce]

When has that not been the case with technology and progress? Tomorrow’s World is probably full of optimistic timescales. Anyone who believes that such timescales will be 100% delivered is perhaps a little naive.

Well my part of my point was that I think this sort of hype was influencing policymakers.

And I think that has also been the case with the over-optimism with EV technology and takeup.

It has not been helped by a bit of capitalism jumping on the hype. That incentivises a lot more over-positive talk.

My concern is that in the midst of this opportunity to advance things has been missed or policy has been mistargeted.

And yes - I would judge some of the policy makers to be naive.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I wonder if this thread will still be so active in about 5 years time when more than 80% of new cars sold are EV’s, the likes of Nissan, GM, VW & Toyota have gone bust and those “new fangled” EVs are often driving around unaided by the driver?

Now, what have we been smoking over the weekend ?

(Certainly looks like it was good stuff)

 

[Steveml63]

Now, what have we been smoking over the weekend ?

(Certainly looks like it was good stuff)

Well - having worked for two tier one automotive suppliers for 20 years of my working life (one of whom was in chapter 11 when I joined them - and i was brought in to help them exit chapter 11 - which they did) and I first worked on and tried various EVs in 1994, I have a lot of knowledge of this industry and keep in regular contact with former colleagues.
The Chinese auto manufacturers are decimating the legacy brands and there are going to be some big casualties amongst them in the next few years.