The EV fact thread

[davymead]

Predicted EV sales are of course based on the assumption that the Motor Manufacturers worldwide carry on producing vehicles under the threat of governmental regulation. From what I read, how much longer they are financially capable of doing so is a matter of some considerable conjecture. Mind there seems to be a lot of conjecture when discussing EV’s.

 

[ALFAitalia]

I personally think that fining them for every ICE they sell over a certain % will have the opposite effect to what they want. They cannot force people to buy EVs (yet!)....but equally they cant not produce them.....that only makes meeting target even less likely.....but fining will just make all cars more expensive because, as we all know, it wont be the car makers footing the bill.....I will be new car buyers. Carrot rather than stick I think would work better......but I'm not going to say how I think more private buyers might be tempted into Evs.....because I have no idea. Not sure Id go for free one with free electricity to be honest......well I might because it would be stupid not to.....but Id still be driving ICE....so that just makes things worse.....have ICE and EV just means even more cars in total and more carbon.

 

[markjay]

....dont forget that some people (like me) will never buy EV......so its could easily take 40 years extra to get the last 10% of hardcore petrol heads into EV....

I wish you a very long life, but I suspect that the majority of those currently objecting to EVs will not be around in 40 years time.. I know I won't. In fact, I don't expect to be driving in 20 years time, if I'm still alive.

Young petrolheads will get older as well, and at any rate the petrolheads have always been in a minority, while the vast majority of those enamoured with Diesels are doing so simply because of the misconception that "Diesels are cheaper to run", and these people will happily transition to EV when second-hand ones will become available and assuming that they can still get cheap electricity.

In 2035, the new drivers will be those who are 6 years old today... this is a generation that will look at ICE cars in the same way that the 17-year-olds of today look at fax machines and DVDs and tape cassettes and CDs (though possibly, in time, ICE will make niche return as retro, in the same way as vinyl did).

 

[ALFAitalia]

Older dervs ARE cheaper to run.....ones without Adblue and all the extra tech especially. My ALFA is by far the cheapest car to run and fuel I've ever owned......no Adblue.....but it has a DPF (the close coupled one that bolts straight to the manifold so runs much hotter and does not block....172,000 miles on original one and still regens to less than 20% blockage) and an EGR....also original. But of course the payoff is that its Euro 5....so not ULEZ compliant.....but I have other vehicles that are......the A Class and the diesel Isuzu pickup!

 

[Bellow]

these people will happily transition to EV when second-hand ones will become available and assuming that they can still get cheap electricity.

I never got an answer to an earlier question - merely refutation of what is obvious to me with my own eyes, namely, the humble hatchback is still ubiquitous out there even though many have moved to crossover SUVs, and a great many will be diesel. For them, where is the pool of second hand EVs? Offering them high end BIK barges when they eschew large heavy overly gizmo laden cars as matter of course, people for whom an S-Class at any price will be spurned, isn't what they'll want.
Apart from fearing the running costs (gizmos go wrong - dealer fixes very expensive) there is also their ability to recharge. Safe to assume that said BIK barges were catered for with at-work or at-home (wall box) recharging - necessary given their large batteries. Without one or the other these cars are untouchable (not in a good way). Is creating a pool of second-hand EVs by this method really going to provide EVs of the type the average motorist can buy into? I can easily envisage the BIK barges finding buyers who have all their ducks in a row re recharging and will buy as they have previously - heavily depreciated luxo-barges - but when they decide to move that metal on, will there be a buyer? Even if they can recharge at home, the high electricity consumption may become a factor - undoubtedly will - if recharging costs rise - as they surely will.

 

[clk320x]

I wish you a very long life, but I suspect that the majority of those currently objecting to EVs will not be around in 40 years time.. I know I won't. In fact, I don't expect to be driving in 20 years time, if I'm still alive

This^

Most of the new generation are in favour of EVs. The number of schools/universities that request Tesla vehicles for a day on the owners group is unbelievable.

In 2035, the new drivers will be those who are 6 years old today... this is a generation that will look at ICE cars in the same way that the 17-year-olds of today look at fax machines and DVDs and tape cassettes and CDs (though possibly, in time, ICE will make niche return as retro, in the same way as vinyl did).

Exactly this.

 

[Noitz]

Most of the new generation are in favour of EVs. The number of schools/universities that request Tesla vehicles for a day on the owners group is unbelievable.

And the number of Tesla vehicles Hertz and SIXT are off-loading is unbelievable!
And for the ultimate send off...

 

[clk320x]

And the number of Tesla vehicles Hertz and SIXT are off-loading is unbelievable!
And for the ultimate send off...
View attachment 151968

I mean an ICE is statistically more likely to catch fire than an EV - but you already knew that.

 

[markjay]

...the humble hatchback is still ubiquitous out there even though many have moved to crossover SUVs, and a great many will be diesel. For them, where is the pool of second hand EVs?

Fair point, though my post was in response to the 40 year prediction... and I have no doubt that by 2064, there's will be a "pool of second hand EVs", probably also a pool of Classic Car EVs.

 

[markjay]

And the number of Tesla vehicles Hertz and SIXT are off-loading is unbelievable! ...

That's part of mixed messages that I have difficulty in reconciling.

On one hand, EVs depreciate like a free falling lift, and companies who bought them are dumping them en masse .

On the other hand, second hand EVs are few and far between, and are unaffordable.

Can someone please explain this phenomenon to me?

 

[Deleted member 55947]

I wish you a very long life, but I suspect that the majority of those currently objecting to EVs will not be around in 40 years time.. I know I won't. In fact, I don't expect to be driving in 20 years time, if I'm still alive.

Young petrolheads will get older as well, and at any rate the petrolheads have always been in a minority, while the vast majority of those enamoured with Diesels are doing so simply because of the misconception that "Diesels are cheaper to run", and these people will happily transition to EV when second-hand ones will become available and assuming that they can still get cheap electricity.

In 2035, the new drivers will be those who are 6 years old today... this is a generation that will look at ICE cars in the same way that the 17-year-olds of today look at fax machines and DVDs and tape cassettes and CDs (though possibly, in time, ICE will make niche return as retro, in the same way as vinyl did).

Of course all this is subject to EV’s still being in vogue then. Remember when everyone was singing and dancing about the use of “clean” diesel vehicles at the turn of the century? Who’s to say that the push for EV’s won’t end up like that. I can’t think of any reason why it should but you never know what’s around the corner. One thing about the motor vehicle game, the newest technology is most certainly not the last

 

[SmartAmg]

And for the ultimate send off...
View attachment 151968

Is that before it reaches the Crematorium.

 

[BTB 500]

I mean an ICE is statistically more likely to catch fire than an EV

Possibly not the case if you factor in vehicle age though - by the time the current crop of nearly new BEVs are 10+ years old the stats may look different. The bus that spontaneously combusted on Thursday was under 3 years old - TfL have now 'temporarily withdrawn' the fleet operating that route:

Wimbledon: Electric buses withdrawn in south London after fire

A fleet of electric buses have been withdrawn as a "precaution" after electric bus caught fire.

www.bbc.co.uk

They also had a hybrid bus burn out the following day:

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

And the number of Tesla vehicles Hertz and SIXT are off-loading is unbelievable!

I doubt there are many months when Hertz and SIXT are not off-loading very large numbers of cars. It’s a fundamental part of their operating model.

 

[davymead]

That's part of mixed messages that I have difficulty in reconciling.

On one hand, EVs depreciate like a free falling lift, and companies who bought them are dumping them en masse .

On the other hand, second hand EVs are few and far between, and are unaffordable.

Can someone please explain this phenomenon to me?

Pretty simple really, nobody can either afford or wants to buy a second hand EV, at any price.

 

[markjay]

Of course all this is subject to EV’s still being in vogue then. Remember when everyone was singing and dancing about the use of “clean” diesel vehicles at the turn of the century? Who’s to say that the push for EV’s won’t end up like that. I can’t think of any reason why it should but you never know what’s around the corner. One thing about the motor vehicle game, the newest technology is most certainly not the last

If EVs are no longer in vogue... it will most probably be because we've changed the way we manage our personal mobility. But ICE cars most certainly won't be part of the picture in 40 years time - again, we're talking about personal mobility, not about ICE engines in general.

 

[markjay]

Pretty simple really, nobody can either afford or wants to buy a second hand EV, at any price.

They must be dirt cheap and in great abundance then.....?

We'll, at least it's good to know that if people do decide to get an EV, there's plenty of cheap second-hand ones about - yes?

 

[ALFAitalia]

@davymead

"Nobody" might be overdoing it a bit.....I see loads of three year plus EVs about....they wont be company owned so someone had stumped up the cash for them.....
In fact used Ev sales have recently doubled according to this....

EV Sales Double in Q3 2023 | DriveElectric

Used battery electric vehicle (BEVs) sales have increased dramatically by 99.9% in quarter three of 2023 to 34,021 units.

www.drive-electric.co.uk

 

[davymead]

They must be dirt cheap and in great abundance then.....?

Well, at least it's good to know that if people do decide to get an EV, there's plenty of cheap second-hand ones about - yes?

Compelling problem would be selling an item that seemingly nobody wants
Quite a number of years in the trade and known traders to me won’t touch them with a barge pole.
As always, I can only speak as I find.

 

[Bellow]

. But ICE cars most certainly won't be part of the picture in 40 years time

You don't 100% know that. There may be alternative combustible fuels that are CO2 neutral. There already are - but they are being ignored. It is wanton stupidity to eliminate them in favour of a technology that has numerous drawbacks and, as things stand, is unaffordable without subsidisation (which is poised to release to market a slew of vehicles that the people who they are intended for will eschew - for a variety of reasons).
When, in the history of the world, when faced with a crisis, was narrowing down the available options the solution? Act in haste (as we are), repent at leisure.