The EV fact thread

[ChipChop]

Little is ever said regarding EU emissions standards when it comes to EV's. The upcoming 2025 Euro 7 emission regulations for example include EV specific measures to tackle non-exhaust emissions, such as microplastic emissions from tyres and particulates from brakes, as well as requirements concerning battery durability.

How early EV's will fare when they are tested to these and successive EU standards is anyones guess. Could be only a question of time until they too are deemed environmentally undesirable thanks to the proposed environmental vehicle passport (EVP) assessing how clean a vehicle is in virtual real time.

Euro 7: MEPs back new rules to reduce road transport emissions | Atualidade | Parlamento Europeu

The Environment Committee adopted its proposals to lower pollutant emissions and set battery durability requirements for passenger cars, vans, buses and trucks.

www.europarl.europa.eu

 

[PXW]

Little is ever said regarding EU emissions standards when it comes to EV's. The upcoming 2025 Euro 7 emission regulations for example include EV specific measures to tackle non-exhaust emissions, such as microplastic emissions from tyres and particulates from brakes, as well as requirements concerning battery durability.

How early EV's will fare when they are tested to these and successive EU standards is anyones guess. Could be only a question of time until they too are deemed environmentally undesirable thanks to the proposed environmental vehicle passport (EVP) assessing how clean a vehicle is in real time.

Euro 7: MEPs back new rules to reduce road transport emissions | Atualidade | Parlamento Europeu

The Environment Committee adopted its proposals to lower pollutant emissions and set battery durability requirements for passenger cars, vans, buses and trucks.

www.europarl.europa.eu

Most of these proposals toughen up rules on heavy vehicles. Tougher rules on battery health/durability would be good news for EVs. There’s no indication that early EVs will be tested against new Euro 7 rules any more than eg Euro 4 compliant vehicles are tested against Euro 6. And the particulate emissions proposals (which are general, not EV specific) are a win for the EVs anyway - the brakes are virtually unused so minimal brake dust, and my own experience is that tyre wear is at least as good on my Tesla as it was on my mercs. Not sure I’m seeing the big threat.

 

[ChipChop]

Most of these proposals toughen up rules on heavy vehicles. Tougher rules on battery health/durability would be good news for EVs. There’s no indication that early EVs will be tested against new Euro 7 rules any more than eg Euro 4 compliant vehicles are tested against Euro 6. And the particulate emissions (which are general, not EV specific) are a win for the EVs anyway - the brakes are virtually unused so minimal brake dust, and my own experience is that tyre wear is at least as good on my Tesla as it was on my mercs. Not sure I’m seeing the big threat.

Not sure a Nissan Leaf owner with a battery displaying sub target capacity after X years or XXX k miles would agree depending on what the penalty (higher tax/ ulez zone ban?) would be. You can however be certain there would be a penalty as that precedent has been set.


As for 'testing' that is another area that will change in the near future if it is to assess emissions as per legislation set out by the EU standards.
How that is accomplished is anyones guess as forcing every MOT station in the UK to invest in expensive equipment to measure NOx when ICE are being banned in x years is a non starter. Hence ICE HGV's and EV's becoming rolling real time emissions laboratories aka the EU's environmental vehicle passport (EVP).
Planned obsolescence accelerated by tech instead of being sensible and/or pragmatic and encouraging consumers to stop consuming quite so many vehicles ad infinitum.

 

[BTB 500]

It makes perfect sense if the use case for EVs fits your lifestyle - which it does. And if as a private buyer you are happy to keep a car for a decade or so - which as a retiree I am. And if you are fortunate enough to have off street parking and solar - which I do. It is then very cheap motoring.

If you want a new BEV now rather than specifically needing one then that's absolutely fine. But it looks very much like prices are only going one way at the moment - down. So buying in a year's time (say) would likely achieve even cheaper motoring? As aside we get paid for exporting unused solar power back to the grid, so using it for EV charging instead would be very cheap but not free.

If I wanted an economical runaround right now I'd probably be looking at a low mileage 1 owner EU6 petrol hatchback for £6k or so, which should give 60+ mpg. 10k miles a year would be about £1000 on petrol, so say £16k in total for the car & fuel over 10 years. Road tax would be the same as an EV, insurance probably a lot lower, servicing probably higher, but overall a big saving vs. say £35k paid up front for a BEV hatchback ... even if you got to run that for nothing.

 

[Deleted member 55947]

UK car prices ‘bloodbath’ could be coming, as EV makers fight for sales | Auto Express

The Stellantis boss warns against car price cuts hitting profits as Europe’s car makers face cheap Chinese competition

www.autoexpress.co.uk

I can’t get my head around the fact that Chinese EV’s are considered to be part of the Green revolution when they’re opening one or two coal mines a week to help power their production

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

The reduction in EV sales overall last year only existed on car forums and in the media....in the real world the BEV market annual sales increased by nearly 50,000 cars.....strange that the media only concentrate on the last month of the year......when EVs often sell less.....even with low December sales their annual market share only dropped by 0.1%.....
View attachment 152236

Need to be cautious about comparing whole year stats from year to year.

Yes BEV's are up 17.8%, which is lovely, almost shadowing the growth in the overall market at 17.9%

But hasn't there been a slowing of the growth rate in Q3 and Q4 2023 ?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

If you want a new BEV now rather than specifically needing one then that's absolutely fine. But it looks very much like prices are only going one way at the moment - down. So buying in a year's time (say) would likely achieve even cheaper motoring? As aside we get paid for exporting unused solar power back to the grid, so using it for EV charging instead would be very cheap but not free.

If I wanted an economical runaround right now I'd probably be looking at a low mileage 1 owner EU6 petrol hatchback for £6k or so, which should give 60+ mpg. 10k miles a year would be about £1000 on petrol, so say £16k in total for the car & fuel over 10 years. Road tax would be the same as an EV, insurance probably a lot lower, servicing probably higher, but overall a big saving vs. say £35k paid up front for a BEV hatchback ... even if you got to run that for nothing.

While I agree with you completely on cheap used ICE - my son has just bought exactly that kind of Golf 1.4TSI for that kind of money, which gives him 50mpg.... And a very nice manual car it is too.

Your claim of a "win" over BEV is false, because you're comparing used with brand new, when you say it's a big saving compared to a £35k BEV hatchback.

No it's just a big saving over new. A new ICE VW Golf for him would start at £30k including the bits he needs.

(Just for the record, the reason he didn't choose a nice used e-Golf - for £10k with 130 mile range - is that, like me, he thinks they're rubbish, like so many other first gen EV's)

 

[markjay]

I can’t get my head around the fact that Chinese EV’s are considered to be part of the Green revolution when they’re opening one or two coal mines a week to help power their production

From:

China: CO2 Country Profile

China: How much CO2 does your country emit? Are emissions falling? How does it compare to other countries?

ourworldindata.org

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

They will....especially because if the ICE ban delay.....but it wont stay that way for long....the nearer we get to 2035 the more people will go BEV....

Don't let the politicians mislead you..... The deadline may well be 2035, but the manufacturers face fines THIS year in 2024, if they don't hit their 22% target for EV sales.

That's why the Ford Focus and Fiesta, as well as other cheap small hatchbacks have been thrown in the bin. Manufacturers can't offer cheap ICE cars because they'll be fined £15k for each and every car over their 78% quota for the year.

So ICE cars will get more expensive and BEV's will get cheaper as manufacturers play the EU and UK Government numbers game.

ZEV mandate: 22% of new cars must be electric this year

New legislation has just come into force requiring all UK car manufacturers to meet targets for new electric car sales, which could result in big discounts for car buyers

www.whatcar.com

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

From:

China: CO2 Country Profile

China: How much CO2 does your country emit? Are emissions falling? How does it compare to other countries?

ourworldindata.org

Worth remembering that we "seem" to be entering an era of de-globalisation, with Western manufacturers pulling back from Asia and extended global supply chains.

Cars may well be the exception, as the Chinese and Koreans are clearly "pouring water" all over Western manufacturers, but the pace of growth in China does seem to be slowing down as work is brought back from China after the shambles of 2020 / 21.

 

[davymead]

I can’t get my head around the fact that Chinese EV’s are considered to be part of the Green revolution when they’re opening one or two coal mines a week to help power their production

And there Harry is where I have a problem, my only problem with Electric Vehicles.
Net Zero is a complete sham, totally unachievable and is we’re not very careful, those people driving this anarchical political Victoria Cross are going to bankrupt all of us. We’ve already seen our German friends and their powerhouse economy reduced to the sick man of Europe, who’d have ever envisaged that. I know, in their case it’s only about energy costs, but that’s only part of the problem. Simply look East at our biggest global threat, the one that owns almost all the raw materials involved in ‘going green’. Let’s just carry on funding the building of more coal fired power stations to help them along. Makes perfect sense.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

I think the Australian EV thing is far removed from the UK experience mainly because range anxiety is probably real down there

To be fair petrol and diesel anxiety can be a thing in parts of Australia too!

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

One of the odd aspects of the supplement is that I had expected manufacturers to hit a list of £39999 on a lot of ICE models - but when I've looked at cars over the last couple of years I've been surprised by the number just over £40K rather than just below.

Because most cars registered are to fleets and the extra cost - when new and annually for the first five years - is wrapped up in a monthly cost whether business or individual.

For private individuals, if they’re in the fortunate position to be buying a brand new car which sufficiently expensive, then the extra cost to have the car they really want is not such a problem.

We’re all different though, and so it will be a big issue for some, especially those spending £40k or more in cash from savings. I doubt there are too many of those in practice.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

From:

China: CO2 Country Profile

China: How much CO2 does your country emit? Are emissions falling? How does it compare to other countries?

ourworldindata.org

I wonder how that compares to the China’s proportion of global population growth, and global manufacturing output?

 

[markjay]

I wonder how that compares to the China’s proportion of global population growth, and global manufacturing output?

The linked article shows various other graphs including the growth in CO2 production per-capita.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Net Zero is a complete sham, totally unachievable and is we’re not very careful,

You need to look into that a bit more.... net zero is fairly easily achievable... but only if every country plays its part.... which of course they won't. Some seem to confuse the near impossible "no carbon output" with "net zero"...two very different things. Won't happen in my life though

 

[Smiley]

What the planet really needs is fewer people consuming a lot less "stuff".
Not a very popular idea though.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Its happening naturally.....rate of pop growth is slowing fast......will in all probability hit peak global pop by about 2086 and go down quite fast from there.

See blow....but there are lots of similar things from different sources.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/when-will-the-global-population-reach-its-peak/#:~:text=When%20will%20the%20world%20reach,sometime%20in%20the%20late%202080s.

 

[190]

Its happening naturally.....rate of pop growth is slowing fast......will in all probability hit peak global pop by about 2086 and go down quite fast from there.

See blow....but there are lots of similar things from different sources.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/when-will-the-global-population-reach-its-peak/#:~:text=When%20will%20the%20world%20reach,sometime%20in%20the%20late%202080s.

World population going into decline seems inevitable but if I had to put money on it I'd go earlier than the UN's forecast of the 2080's. That's not a terribly scientific view on my part just a withering opinion of the UN as an organisation. To me they seem to talk rubbish every time they open their mouth so it's not where I would put my trust. By their own admission they have been forecasting too high :

In the UN’s latest revisions, it lowered its own estimates for global population in 2100, from 10.9 billion (as of 2019) to 10.4 billion (as of 2022).

I'd rather be optimistic and hope that one of the other forecasts is more accurate in which case we could reach peak by 2050. Look at China having gone from a one child policy to a serious demographic problem and population shrinkage in a relatively short space of time. There's really only India and Africa causing big problem now.

While I expect we all think over population of the planet is a bad thing, it's a sobering thought that the human race is in sight of a permanent decline.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

World population going into decline seems inevitable but if I had to put money on it I'd go earlier than the UN's forecast of the 2080's. That's not a terribly scientific view on my part just a withering opinion of the UN as an organisation. To me they seem to talk rubbish every time they open their mouth so it's not where I would put my trust. By their own admission they have been forecasting too high :

In the UN’s latest revisions, it lowered its own estimates for global population in 2100, from 10.9 billion (as of 2019) to 10.4 billion (as of 2022).

I'd rather be optimistic and hope that one of the other forecasts is more accurate in which case we could reach peak by 2050. Look at China having gone from a one child policy to a serious demographic problem and population shrinkage in a relatively short space of time. There's really only India and Africa causing big problem now.

While I expect we all think over population of the planet is a bad thing, it's a sobering thought that the human race is in sight of a permanent decline.

If only there was some way of unleashing a pandemic to clear out the Wrinklies (like me), or a way of stopping Bill Gates' anti-malaria campaign in Africa, or maybe another good war ?

I understand the desire to forecast 60 years out, but I'm not sure that our forecasts in the 1960's would have stood up to the test of time.

That's 1960, when the world population was a third of what it is now.

When we "thought" that by 2020, we'd all be travelling around in helicopters, that we'd be working a 25 hour week, if we chose to, and that non-working families would get enough money from the state to live comfortably, and women would still be 34 / 24 / 36