The EV fact thread

[Petrol Pete]

Just Google 'grandpa cars China' if you want to see the chaos these 'Gwhizz' type things are causing on the roads over there.

Probably a vision of what Citizen Khan wants for London going forward. But that bad stuff won't happen in the UK because they will be regulated/registered and insured so people who drive in them will be accountable.

Two words

Electric scooters.

 

[neilrr]

"Some 60 years ago, American farmers stalled at this point in their willingness to adopt new technologies to aid farming methods"

Don't see any mention of what the new technologies US farmers balked at adopting were. Anyone know?

 

[markjay]

I agree with you 100%, as I type on my SE Asian made MacBook wearing my SE Asian clothes, listening to my AirPods.

But my point is that there's a massive push back from people who don't give a stuff about Kyoto.

And a European car industry that's facing a Tsunami of imports, while the Americans are just reaching for their handguns.

A compromise could be an interim push to hybrids, using the logic that a faster spread of hybrids could reduce CO2 faster than persuading rednecks to give up their diesels and V8's.

I have to agree that Western governments forcing EVs on their people is music to China's ears. EVs can be manufactured cheaply, and in great numbers, and no one can make electric and electronic goods cheaper than China.

 

[davymead]

You have to hand it to those execs at Mercedes with their firm grasp of business acumen ….
‘Customers and market conditions will set the pace of the transformation’
Brilliant foresight.

 

[Bellow]

For those who still believe EVs are cheaper than ICE, the following from Ineos - who actually manufacture vehicles:

''the cost of a battery is "three times" the cost of a combustion engine.''

New Ineos Fusilier revealed as EV 4x4 with range-extender option | Autocar

Grenadier's smaller sibling is first electric Ineos, due on sale in 2027 with extreme off-road ability

www.autocar.co.uk

 

[markjay]

You have to hand it to those execs at Mercedes with their firm grasp of business acumen ….
‘Customers and market conditions will set the pace of the transformation’
Brilliant foresight.

Agreed. This is simply stating the obvious.

'Market Conditions' is a catch-all phrase that covers everything that is not within the manufacturer's control, including legislation, government grants, tax incentives, energy prices, etc.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Just Google 'grandpa cars China' if you want to see the chaos these 'Gwhizz' type things are causing on the roads over there.

Probably a vision of what Citizen Khan wants for London going forward. But that bad stuff won't happen in the UK because they will be regulated/registered and insured so people who drive in them will be accountable.

In their defence, in the context of China or India, these enclosed quadricycles are transport for people who hiss and sheet in fields and who otherwise wouldn't have any transport at all.

Sad IQ doesn't want anyone in Quadricycles. He wants poor people on the public transport that used to employ his dad, and tax revenues from those who are prepared to pay for the ability to use their own door to door transport.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

You have to hand it to those execs at Mercedes with their firm grasp of business acumen ….
‘Customers and market conditions will set the pace of the transformation’
Brilliant foresight.

The Socialist, Liberal and Green (Red / Yellow / Green) Alliance voted for Kyoto and the EV transformation, so that's what Governments tried to achieve, in Europe, California and to a lesser degree elsewhere.

We voted them in, and praised their bold strategic moves. We just forgot to think things through.

Twenty-five years on - now we're complaining?

"Does changing the drivesystem on private vehicles make them cleaner and more affordable?" Duh, not any time soon. One day maybe, but not yet.

.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

For those who still believe EVs are cheaper than ICE, the following from Ineos - who actually manufacture vehicles:

''the cost of a battery is "three times" the cost of a combustion engine.''

New Ineos Fusilier revealed as EV 4x4 with range-extender option | Autocar

Grenadier's smaller sibling is first electric Ineos, due on sale in 2027 with extreme off-road ability

www.autocar.co.uk

Ineos, a tiny newcomer to the extreme luxury 4x4 market,
making less than 100 cars a day (call it 0.0003% of global production),
with no track record in the motor industry,
and a fervent desire not to make EV's for the global market because the demand isn't there for luxury off-road electric SUV's

 

[Bellow]

Ineos, a tiny newcomer to the extreme luxury 4x4 market, making just less than 100 cars a day, with no track record in the motor industry, and a fervent desire not to make EV's for the global market because the demand isn't there.

The Fusilier (featured) is an EV - with REx option (more utilitarian than luxury I'd have thought). Regarding its REx version it says:

''The REx might therefore be cheaper than the EV version, purely as the battery is smaller.”

and, re the REx engine:
"It’s very small with a steady state. It’s very efficient and a simple piece of equipment, with no variable valves or anything," said Ratcliffe.
A point I've been making for sometime - ie, REx engines can be simplified and their cost reduced.

''Ineos estimates that this variant will emit 20-30% of the CO2 of a conventional ICE model. ''

At least there's some thinking beyond 'only pure BEV is acceptable'.

100 vehicles/ day is enough to know the cost of the vehicle content - ICE or battery.

 

[markjay]

For those who still believe EVs are cheaper than ICE, the following from Ineos - who actually manufacture vehicles:

''the cost of a battery is "three times" the cost of a combustion engine.''

New Ineos Fusilier revealed as EV 4x4 with range-extender option | Autocar

Grenadier's smaller sibling is first electric Ineos, due on sale in 2027 with extreme off-road ability

www.autocar.co.uk

True. And this demonstrates my point.

If the cost of the battery is 3 times that of an ICE engines, then this shows just how much cheaper it is to make the rest of the car.

At current, the main obstacle to reducing EV prices is the cost of the battery. Everything else can be made in large numbers in China, cheaper than we ever imagined.

The first step is to focus on city cars. Not everyone needs 100kWh batteries weighing shy of a ton, providing 400 miles range, and costing £10k each. A smaller, lighter, and cheaper battery with a (WLTP) range of 100-200 miles will be suitable to many city dwellers.

Then, think Ford Focus, not Scorpio Ghia - not every EV needs to have autonomous driving, bird-view cameras, HUD, 20" displays, etc etc.

The main risk to our environment, as I see it, is from cheap EVs flooding the planet, and even if all the energy we produced was from renewable sources, the making and disposing of these EVs will likely cause significant harm, more so in developing countries.

The battery issue will resolve itself in time. Due to the current high cost, the market is flooded with money from investors directed at battery research - the first company to develop a smaller, cheaper, lighter battery will have discovered a gold mine. It's only a question of time before science cracks it.

(To those who say "it can't be done", all I can say is that as a young lad working in IT back in the eighties and nineties, I carried large CRT computer monitors up flights of stairs in lift-less buildings, cursing whoever invented the bloody things, then again later in life when unboxing our first 50" CRT TV.... these days I can remove our 65" flat TV off the wall myself, and I am 40 years older!)

 

[markjay]

The Fusilier (featured) is an EV - with REx option (more utilitarian than luxury I'd have thought). Regarding its REx version it says:

''The REx might therefore be cheaper than the EV version, purely as the battery is smaller.”

and, re the REx engine:
"It’s very small with a steady state. It’s very efficient and a simple piece of equipment, with no variable valves or anything," said Ratcliffe.
A point I've been making for sometime - ie, REx engines can be simplified and their cost reduced.

''Ineos estimates that this variant will emit 20-30% of the CO2 of a conventional ICE model. ''

At least there's some thinking beyond 'only pure BEV is acceptable'.

100 vehicles/ day is enough to know the cost of the vehicle content - ICE or battery.

I just Googled it, the 'smaller' version of the Fusilier will have a 100kWh battery... wow. No doubt they are complaining about battery prices. I wonder what battery will the standard Fusilier have?

To be fair to Ineos, if the market for high-end luxury off-road bespoke vehicles demands maximum range, then so be it. But this hardly reflects in the average car buyer - some people will need the 400 miles range, but many won't.

 

[Bellow]

True. And this demonstrates my point.

If the cost of the battery is 3 times that of an ICE engines, then this shows just how much cheaper it is to make the rest of the car.

What exactly is cheaper with an EV than with ICE? Paint, glass, seating, carpets, tyres? Really not seeing where cost savings can be made there. Not least as it's been an auto industry obsession for decades.

At current, the main obstacle to reducing EV prices is the cost of the battery. Everything else can be made in large numbers in China, cheaper than we ever imagined.

There are limits to how cheap. The cost of ocean going transportation is also on the rise due to global events. That cost appears on the final price tag too.

The first step is to focus on city cars. Not everyone needs 100kWh batteries weighing shy of a ton, providing 400 miles range, and costing £10k each. A smaller, lighter, and cheaper battery with a (WLTP) range of 100-200 miles will be suitable to many city dwellers.

Then, think Ford Focus, not Scorpio Ghia - not every EV needs to have autonomous driving, bird-view cameras, HUD, 20" displays, etc etc.

For a variety of reasons that isn't happening. Nor does it look like there's anything to shimmy it along. Only border-line immoral regressive taxation gifting cheap top-end EVs to the already well off funded by people who don't want/cant use/cant afford said EVs when they are released to the used car market after their tenure as a tax reduction mechanism.

The main risk to our environment, as I see it, is from cheap EVs flooding the planet, and even if all the energy we produced was from renewable sources, the making and disposing of these EVs will likely cause significant harm, more so in developing countries.

If that's what it takes to ensure people can get to work and back and keep the economy rolling and life recognisable then so be it. I'm not in favour - but then again I'm not the one advocating for EVs which only makes the stated scenario more -not less - likely.

The battery issue will resolve itself in time. Due to the current high cost, the market is flooded with money from investors directed at battery research - the first company to develop a smaller, cheaper, lighter battery will have discovered a gold mine. It's only a question of time before science cracks it.

Yeah, just like diesel engines became cheaper as time rolled by.
Money being thrown at everything due to investors' FOMO is no guarantee of a tangible result.

(To those who say "it can't be done", all I can say is that as a young lad working in IT back in the eighties and nineties, I carried large CRT computer monitors up flights of stairs in lift-less buildings, cursing whoever invented the bloody things, then again later in life when unboxing our first 50" CRT TV.... these days I can remove our 65" flat TV off the wall myself, and I am 40 years older!)

Wishful thinking. It may happen - it may not. What if it doesn't happen - as it hasn't yet? Maybe, it's time to live within our means - with what we actually have at our disposal. If better comes along - great. But if it doesn't...

 

[philnewmerc]

Autotrader experiment. Just out of curiosity: "new battery" in search box in Autotrader:
Tesla shows 8 cars out of of 1800 => 0.44 % failure over 10 years.
Nissan electric vehicles: 2 out of 164 => 1.2 % failure over 13 years
A similar search for "new engine" (for all petrol and diesel cars) results in 0.18 % failure, so at least half as many failures.
can't see any "new battery" results for any other manufacturers and of course they may not have said "new battery" in the advert... not very scientific, just interesting

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Autotrader experiment. Just out of curiosity: "new battery" in search box in Autotrader:
Tesla shows 8 cars out of of 1800 => 0.44 % failure over 10 years.
Nissan electric vehicles: 2 out of 164 => 1.2 % failure over 13 years
A similar search for "new engine" (for all petrol and diesel cars) results in 0.18 % failure, so at least half as many failures.
can't see any "new battery" results for any other manufacturers and of course they may not have said "new battery" in the advert... not very scientific, just interesting

I’d say it’s much much much rarer even than that to have a new ICE engine. Most get a used from a scrap yard. Not so much a selling point, more off-putting if anything.

 

[markjay]

What exactly is cheaper with an EV than with ICE? Paint, glass, seating, carpets, tyres? Really not seeing where cost savings can be made there. Not least as it's been an auto industry obsession for decades.

Clearly you are lucky to never have seen a quote for new engine and new automatic transmission from Mercedes Benz....

The Tesla batteries may or may become cheaper over time, agreed, but one thing is certain: in the past 100 years we have reduced the manufacturing costs of ICE engines and automatic transmissions as far as humanly possible - these will not become any cheaper.

IF - and it's an IF, agreed - the cost of the battery will go down significantly, entry level EVs will be dirth cheap compared to ICE cars.

Where we differ, I think, is in our estimation of how likely it is that in time we'll have low-cost batteries. I think it's highly likely, you appear to have the opposite view.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

100 vehicles/ day is enough to know the cost of the vehicle content - ICE or battery.

Still doesn’t make them a credible source for your original comment.

They’re a a tiny, tiny, niche player with an axe to grind

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I’d say it’s much much much rarer even than that to have a new ICE engine. Most get a used from a scrap yard. Not so much a selling point, more off-putting if anything.

Not quite. Most get refurbished from an engine / gearbox specialist.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Autotrader experiment. Just out of curiosity: "new battery" in search box in Autotrader:
Tesla shows 8 cars out of of 1800 => 0.44 % failure over 10 years.
Nissan electric vehicles: 2 out of 164 => 1.2 % failure over 13 years
A similar search for "new engine" (for all petrol and diesel cars) results in 0.18 % failure, so at least half as many failures.
can't see any "new battery" results for any other manufacturers and of course they may not have said "new battery" in the advert... not very scientific, just interesting

Pardon ? There are 1800 Tesla’s over 10 years old on Autotrader? Surely some mistake?

And…

Haven’t half the Tesla’s in the country been sold within the last three years?

And…

Gresham’s law points out that faulty vehicles are more likely to be up for sale. Good vehicles will remain with their owners

And

Creating a percentage out of just two units failing is fraught with error. One less and you’ve halved the rate.

 

[markjay]

I’d say it’s much much much rarer even than that to have a new ICE engine. Most get a used from a scrap yard. Not so much a selling point, more off-putting if anything.

I don't think this applies to EV batteries though - I suspect that the majority will either have been replaced under warranty, or at the insurer's expense.

Older EVs out of warranty, and the occasional physical battery damage not covered by warranty or insurance, will account for the scrapyard purchases - but I doubt this will be the majority? I do agree, however, that the mention of a new battery (or a new ICE) isn't necessarily a selling point - when I see an ad that says "££££ spend on [this and that]" I don't feel an urge to purchase said motor