The EV fact thread

[markjay]

People will also be buying EVs from much smaller companies though, some of which are not much more than startups. The chance of all of them surviving the next 10 years is probably zero. Do you know how financially sound the various Chinese companies selling EVs into the UK are - MG, BYD, GWM, Xpeng, Omoda etc? We've already seen Polestar in trouble, and they had pretty solid backing. BMW, Mercedes and VW aren't doing particularly well at the moment either!

The other issue as technology advances is whether batteries will actually be available for warranty repairs on 8 year old models. We've already seen some issues with new cars from major manufacturers - we don't know how this one ended, but after 3 months MB still hadn't been able to fix an EQC that had only covered 1000 miles:

A

Thread 'EQC High Voltage Battery Failure'

Jun 20, 2024

So, back in April I took the plunge and leased a pre registered EQC 400 AMG Line Edition through MB Finance. We chose to lease rather than buy with the uncertainty of the EV project and felt the lease enables me to test the water so to speak. Well, the EQC was a genuine WOW moment and the nighttime charging at 7.5 ppkwh makes the 400BHP monster cheap as chips to run. After around 3 weeks and 1000 miles my wife received a text message from MB saying there was a high voltage battery fault. Strange as we’d used the car the day before and the display showed around 60% battery charge and we...

• Atrueguy
• Replies: 23
• Forum: Electric Mercedes models

Sure, some people will have bought Fiskers, and before that Marcus, and Bristols.... but these are fringe manufacturers. How many EVs will companies that "are not much more than startups" actually make in total? Even if they all went bust at the same time, it will hardly leave a dent in the market.

In short, the argument that people should be warry of buying EVs because EV makers might go bust and leave customers without a warranty is pretty much baseless... or to be precise, it's just another very low-probability theoretical risk.

As others said - anyone who hasn't warmed up to the idea, should simply not buy an EV... ICE cars will be with us for a long time. And, especially those who like driving older cars will have bo issue whatsoever with driving ICE card for the foreseeable future.

 

[BTB 500]

In short, the argument that people should be warry of buying EVs because EV makers might go bust and leave customers without a warranty is pretty much baseless... or to be precise, it's just another very low-probability theoretical risk.

What I actually said was "assuming the company that made it is still around and in a position to honour the warranty".

MB haven't gone bust, but if they can't replace the battery on 4 week old EQC now what's the chance they'd be able to do it in 8 years time? I'm pretty sure I read that MB could no longer supply replacement drive batteries for C Class hybrids, which had a 6 year warranty. Bad luck if you're the private owner of one of those now.

Apart from changing technology the battery packs in many cars are specific to that model. Models change rapidly (the EQC mentioned above is already out of production, which I assume is at least part of the problem), so do we think car makers are going to put aside a stock of spare batteries for every single model they produce and keep them for 8 years? Quite apart from the financial implications ... think of the fire risk

 

[Bellow]

So if you're concerned about reliability... and don't want to get stranded... or have to pay for expensive repairs.... then you should buy an old car? This makes no sense to me.

Maybe it doesn't make sense to you but it is the rationale behind me running a 25 year old SUV. Things go wrong all the time but nothing that strands it. Parts are easily obtained and reasonably priced. On account of its spaciousness working on it is easy - no hours spent removing undertrays and components to gain access to the part requiring attention. Spacious enough that I can work underneath it withput needing jacks, ramps or a lift.
Further, it's continued existence (and thousands of these vehicles (built from the late 80s to 1999) are still in use) voids the need for a new built replacement and its attendant (now large) carbon footprint in production. Give me bio or synthetic fuel and my vehicular choice is so much greener than any EV it's sinful that ICE is being erased. Only dogma prevents that becoming reality.

But none of this matters. Those who come up with 'reasons' why not to buy an EV, will continue to come up with reasons why not to buy an EV.... ad Infinitum.

Here we go again - gaslighting those with genuine reasons for not wanting or being able to run an EV, and/or concerns for the actual viability and validity of EVs as somehow irrationally prejudiced.

 

[markjay]

Maybe it doesn't make sense to you but it is the rationale behind me running a 25 year old SUV. Things go wrong all the time but nothing that strands it. Parts are easily obtained and reasonably priced. On account of its spaciousness working on it is easy - no hours spent removing undertrays and components to gain access to the part requiring attention. Spacious enough that I can work underneath it withput needing jacks, ramps or a lift.
Further, it's continued existence (and thousands of these vehicles (built from the late 80s to 1999) are still in use) voids the need for a new built replacement and its attendant (now large) carbon footprint in production. Give me bio or synthetic fuel and my vehicular choice is so much greener than any EV it's sinful that ICE is being erased. Only dogma prevents that becoming reality.

According to the government's current plans, you'll be able to run 25 years old SUVs until 2059. I really don't see the issue....

 

[ALFAitalia]

......so do we think car makers are going to put aside a stock of spare batteries for every single model they produce and keep them for 8 years?

.....no we dont.....in much the same way Mercedes don't make and keep stock of all the other parts for all the old cars they have made over the years. They are made when demand requires it. If you want a cylinder head for an E55K you don't seriously think that Mercedes have had them in stock since it was a current model do you??....of course not....they (or their supplier depending on the part) make a batch of them as when when required to meet demand. Same with batteries I guess.....there will always be parts they dont make....my old 2009 ALFA has not had an engine ECU availaible for about 5 years!!

 

[ALFAitalia]

According to the government's current plans, you'll be able to run 25 years old SUVs until 2059. I really don't see the issue....

There are no plans to completely ban petrol and diesel cars at all as far as I can find. They will just let them naturally fade away though rust or mechanical failure until they are a small percentage of the UK car park.

 

[markjay]

There are no plans to completely ban petrol and diesel cars at all as far as I can find. They will just let them naturally fade away though rust or mechanical failure until they are a small percentage of the UK car park.

If the last one to be sold will be a 2034 model... than Bellow can still drive it in 2059 when it's 25 years old. I won't be around, obviously.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Give me bio or synthetic fuel and my vehicular choice is so much greener than any EV it's sinful that ICE is being erased

Except its not....not by a long way....and impractical and could not be make in anything like the quantiles required.....but don't let the facts get in the way!!

What Are Synthetic Fuels? Benefits & Environmental Impact | Saxton 4x4

With many manufacturers making a move towards carbon-neutral options, could synthetic fuels be an alternative to electric vehicles? Here’s everything you need to know.

www.saxton4x4.co.uk

Synthetic Fuels Won’t Save The Planet, So Don’t Say They Could

Electric vehicle critics argue that synthetic e-fuels are the answer to climate change, not batteries. But they’re wrong. Here’s why.

www.forbes.com

Magic green fuels: Why synthetic fuels in cars will not solve…

T&E commissioned lab tests to measure the air pollutant emissions of e-petrol in cars.

www.transportenvironment.org

 

[BTB 500]

.....no we dont.....in much the same way Mercedes don't make and keep stock of all the other parts for all the old cars they have made over the years. They are made when demand requires it.

You can't just knock up a half tonne battery pack for an EV that went out of production 8 years ago. Quite apart from the cost it's fairly unlikely the specific cells required (chemistry/shape/size/capacity) will still be available. It's not like machining a bit of metal.

 

[Bellow]

According to the government's current plans, you'll be able to run 25 years old SUVs until 2059. I really don't see the issue....

I do. By that time it will be 60 years old and no equivalent replacement will be available. Given the mire of automotive electrification it's far from certain there'll even be an electric replacement available.

 

[Bellow]

If the last one to be sold will be a 2034 model... than Bellow can still drive it in 2059 when it's 25 years old. I won't be around, obviously.

That lazy assumption again that we can all afford to by brand new whether it be ICE or EV. Out of touch with reality doesn't begin to describe what I'm reading.

 

[Bellow]

Except its not....not by a long way....and impractical and could not be make in anything like the quantiles required.....but don't let the facts get in the way!!

What Are Synthetic Fuels? Benefits & Environmental Impact | Saxton 4x4

With many manufacturers making a move towards carbon-neutral options, could synthetic fuels be an alternative to electric vehicles? Here’s everything you need to know.

www.saxton4x4.co.uk

Synthetic Fuels Won’t Save The Planet, So Don’t Say They Could

Electric vehicle critics argue that synthetic e-fuels are the answer to climate change, not batteries. But they’re wrong. Here’s why.

www.forbes.com

Magic green fuels: Why synthetic fuels in cars will not solve…

T&E commissioned lab tests to measure the air pollutant emissions of e-petrol in cars.

www.transportenvironment.org

There is absolutely nothing there that gets close to saying synthetic fuels have no future. Only that not enough is being done to make it a reality.

 

[markjay]

...it's sinful that ICE is being erased.

It will happen anyway, over time, with or without government intervention.

For us, internal combustion engines, spark plugs, filters and oil changes etc seems the norm.

But future generations will be less interested in operating complex machinery the requires annual maintenance.

The alure of the ICE engines will diminish as the digital generations take over.

I predict that the majority of people in the future will prefer the simplicity and the lack of servicing on electric motors over ICE engines.

Of course, the romantics will still collect ICE cars. But they will become like vinyl records - a niche market for those who prefer the subtle qualities of the old mechanical stuff and don't mind the constant TLC required to maintain them.

 

[markjay]

There is absolutely nothing there that gets close to saying synthetic fuels have no future. Only that not enough is being done to make it a reality.

As a stop gap measure, possibly.

But - like with watches and home telephones and fuel pumps and a million other things - the electric, electronic, and digital will replace the mechanical goods, just like electronic calculators replaced the abacus and the logarithmic slide rules. There's no long term future for a complex metal lump that burns stuff over an electric motor. This is how it's been for the past 50 years... so give it up. ICE tech is a melting ice qube (no pun intended).

 

[ALFAitalia]

Bellow said: There is absolutely nothing there that gets close to saying synthetic fuels have no future. Only that not enough is being done to make it a reality.

For the reasons mentioned.....its not green enough or low carbon/pollution enough. If you don't want an EV....that's fine, I don't want one and will never own one (hopefully). There is going to be nothing stopping you and me driving Ice for probably the next 50 or 60 years at least....so why worry. Which is why I don't spend my time putting them down on forums.....when probably 75 percent of the population could not care less what powers their cars and probably closer to 95% could easily use an EV for the miles they currently do if they wanted to with no really bother or expence....as long as they have access to overnight charging.......not so clever or cheap if you don't. Average UK car mileage is now 7400 miles per year...so about 21 miles per day.....so that Ok. If you do more miles?....well a fairly average 250 mile range EV just charging at home would mean you could drive over 90,000 miles per year without touching public charging except on the days you might be driving over that mileage and how often would that realistically be? No need for the constant slagging off of a product you will clearly never buy.

 

[Bellow]

As a stop gap measure, possibly.

Nope. Bio-fuels should be the (not even stop gap) but immediate priority. Then as more green electrical generation comes on stream a proportion that would otherwise be used charging batteries (EV, EV buffering, general buffering) can be diverted to hydrogen production to be used immediately - side-stepping the very very difficult to solve need for storage - to produce synthetic fuels.
In parallel should be a rethink of the ICE. The pinnacle of low CO2 emissions ICE (albeit with other emissions so troubling as to need eradicating - hence the need for new designs) common rail turbo diesel's technology is now 25 years old. A quarter of a century - almost a quarter of ICE.s history - and at the end of its development path.

But - like with watches and home telephones and fuel pumps and a million other things - the electric, electronic, and digital will replace the mechanical goods, just like electronic calculators replaced the abacus and the logarithmic slide rules.

That is merely your opinion and frankly lacks validity. Was there ever a combustion engined watch, phone? Calculators weren't merely another way to calculate - they were the democratisation of calculation. If you want to compare that to cars - Ford's Model T is your focus.

There's no long term future for a complex metal lump that burns stuff over an electric motor. This is how it's been for the past 50 years... so give it up. ICE tech is a melting ice qube (no pun intended).

Again opinion. ICE still has so much to commend it. Every identified EV' shortcoming is apparent precisely because of ICE superiority. Choose any metric you want and that sentence will always be true (so long as fossil fuel is replaced with a sustainable alternative).
ICE has done so much for us for so long it is a world of ingrates that tosses it aside so flippantly.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Hope the weather is nice on your planet!!! EVs are here and staying.....not saying I like it but that's how it is......and it will be that way for probably decades if not centuries with improved tech...........way too much time, effort and money put into it compared to the peanuts put into alternative fuels (by comparison)....Look how rubbish ICE cars were to start with and how fast they evolved.....it was only by the naorrowest of margins that we have not all been in EVs for a century .........No going back now. Well at least until someone comes up with this.

 

[Bellow]

Hope the weather is nice on your planet!!! EVs are here

No. they're not. Neither in numbers on the road or being sold. They are falling short of expectation.

and staying.....not saying I like it but that's how it is......and it will be that way for probably decades if not centuries with improved tech...........way too much time, effort and money put into it compared to the peanuts put into alternative fuels (by comparison)....Look how rubbish ICE cars were to start with and how fast they evolved.....it was only by the naorrowest of margins that we have not all been in EVs for a century .........No going back now. Well at least until someone comes up with this.

Therein lies one of the fundamental problems. In those early days of ICE cars were few, fewer cars were made obsolete by improving technology. Now, we are attempting to replace a colossal number of ICE vehicles with vehicles that it is known - or at least expected - to improve. Improve to the point of undesirability and thus big depreciation on an expensive when purchased asset is inevitable. Or, only avoidable by keeping out of that loop by not purchasing. Which is exactly what we are currently witnessing.
For EVs to succeed, continuing with ICE with appropriate fuels while EVs have the opportunity to develop better before being brought to market would be a good strategy. It would also afford a revenue stream for western auto-manufacturers during the transition which I suspect would be of wider benefit than to only their shareholders.

 

[markjay]

Nope. Bio-fuels should be the (not even stop gap) but immediate priority. Then as more green electrical generation comes on stream a proportion that would otherwise be used charging batteries (EV, EV buffering, general buffering) can be diverted to hydrogen production to be used immediately - side-stepping the very very difficult to solve need for storage - to produce synthetic fuels.
In parallel should be a rethink of the ICE. The pinnacle of low CO2 emissions ICE (albeit with other emissions so troubling as to need eradicating - hence the need for new designs) common rail turbo diesel's technology is now 25 years old. A quarter of a century - almost a quarter of ICE.s history - and at the end of its development path.



That is merely your opinion and frankly lacks validity. Was there ever a combustion engined watch, phone? Calculators weren't merely another way to calculate - they were the democratisation of calculation. If you want to compare that to cars - Ford's Model T is your focus.



Again opinion. ICE still has so much to commend it. Every identified EV' shortcoming is apparent precisely because of ICE superiority. Choose any metric you want and that sentence will always be true (so long as fossil fuel is replaced with a sustainable alternative).
ICE has done so much for us for so long it is a world of ingrates that tosses it aside so flippantly.

Agreed - it's my opinion that ICE is old tech, and that it will fade away, initially for private cars, but eventually for everything.

Equally, I'm sure that there was a lot to be said for steam engines as a means of propulsion at the time, and yet they're gone.

 

[SmartAmg]

ICE has done so much for us for so long it is a world of ingrates that tosses it aside so flippantly.

Don't think anyone is saying ICE hasn't done so much for us. Of course it has, still does and will do for a long time yet.
I still like ICE cars. But in my case this ingrate thought it was time for a change. And that change was an EV, just fancied one, that's all, pure and simple.
No, what pisses me off is, those who say they would NEVER have an EV, as long as they've got a hole in there @rse. (And that's totally ok, that's there choice) Spouting utter shite about EVs. Why?
I've got an EV now, but I don't slate ICE cars. Why would I? So why do those with ICE cars, slate EVs at any and every opportunity.