The EV fact thread

[SmartAmg]

Oh, and just to add, I've noticed on forum's (Not just this).
Folk who don't like EVs.
Spend more time on about EVs, than those who have an actual EV, ever do. Funny that.

 

[Bellow]

Agreed - it's my opinion that ICE is old tech, and that it will fade away, initially for private cars, but eventually for everything.

Electric can't compete on price. Let's see if economics can be trounced.

 

[markjay]

Electric can't compete on price. Let's see if economics can be trounced.

Why? So far, electric and electronic devices have always been cheaper than mechanical devices, once mass produced, and the initial R&D paid off. Why would it be any different this time?

 

[Dryce]

Why? So far, electric and electronic devices have always been cheaper than mechanical devices, once mass produced, and the initial R&D paid off. Why would it be any different this time?

Because at the current time batteries are big heavy things that are not getting lighter.

The tradition with electronics is that stuff gets physically less (sometimes a saw tooth downward trend as new tech/features add physically to a system and then as these get commonplace their physical impact gets replaced).

Electric cars are not electronics. They physical side is difficult to reduce.

And with electronics prices don't always come down - if you look at high end digital camera systems there was a downward trend in price till about 12 years ago - and it has been upwards since. In part reduction in volumes and in part higher physical complexity - and in the case of lenses high demands meaning better glass elements increasing the physical side.

If we see a major step in evolution in either batteries - or the type of product in demand (different attributes) then we may see EV prices drop. But it's not the same as we have seen with consumer electronics (yet?).

 

[markjay]

...If we see a major step in evolution in either batteries - or the type of product in demand (different attributes) then we may see EV prices drop. But it's not the same as we have seen with consumer electronics (yet?).

'Yet' is the key word.

My point is that electric vehicles are inherently cheaper to make than ICE powered cars.

Take the Dacia Spring. £16k RRP. Remove the cost of the battery, and it's cheaper than a Diesel Dacia. It all boils down to whether the cost of storing electric energy can be brought down, either by making batteries cheaper, or by inventing different tech.

The EV-bashers (conveniently for them) assume the role of the Oracle of Delphi and prophesise that it shall not come to pass.

 

[Dryce]

'Yet' is the key word.

My point is that electric vehicles are inherently cheaper to make than ICE powered cars.

No - they are not inherently cheaper if they require 500kg or whatever of expensive battery. You idealise that they should be cheaper because ICE vehicles are more complex than a BEV. If the battery was 500kg of something cheap then that ideal would be met. But the EV is burdened by that 500Kg not being cheap.

They are *inherently more expensive*.

So 'yet' is the key word - whether they really can be cheaper. Or if customers compromise their needs (or 'needs') against what is affordable.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

It's a political thread. It should be a car thread.

But the underlying fact is that the EV market is disproportionately driven by politicians and tax incentives/subsidies and legislation and restrictions and green policy.

Whereas Scientists argue that the EV transition and market is driven by climate Science

Whereas most of us say “who gives a stuff about Florida and Norfolk?

And, lets face it: skiing is a pretentious winter sport that’s only been around for less than a century.”

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[markjay]

No - they are not inherently cheaper if they require 500kg or whatever of expensive battery. You idealise that they should be cheaper because ICE vehicles are more complex than a BEV. If the battery was 500kg of something cheap then that ideal would be met. But the EV is burdened by that 500Kg not being cheap.

They are *inherently more expensive*.

So 'yet' is the key word - whether they really can be cheaper. Or if customers compromise their needs (or 'needs') against what is affordable.

We seem to be in agreement that the only remaining hurdle for EVs to be more economic to buy and run than ICE-powered cars is the battery.

Where we seem to disagree is on whether this issue can be resolved over time, in terms of both cost and weight.

My point was that some people will jump on any stumbling block and highlight only the most pessimistic possible outcome - and whatever issue the EV market is currently experienced is automatically assumed as unresolvable.

 

[markjay]

Whereas Scientists argue that the EV transition and market is driven by climate Science

Whereas most of us say “who gives a stuff about Florida and Norfolk?

And, lets face it: skiing is a pretentious winter sport that’s only been around for less than a century.”

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I am not one to jump on the climate bandwagon. A point I have made before is that no form of personal mobility can ever be environmentally-friendly, if it involves that manufacturing of a heavy metal box, and then accelerating and braking it repeatedly - the former is a dirty industry whichever way you look at it, and the latter requires massive amounts of energy that will need to be produced somehow - yet another dirty industry.

I endorse EVs due to two clear benefits: (a) the complete removal of harmful exhaust emissions from urban areas, which is where most people live and work, and (b) the ability to easily and seamlessly change the energy production method in future, e.g. from burning carbon fuels to nuclear or wind/solar/hydro.

But as far as the environment is concerned... efficient and affordable public transport is currently the solution with the least environmental impact per capita. No form of personal mobility will ever be green. It does not mean that we should ban use private cars altogether, just that if want to protect the environment then we need to have less of them, and drive them less.

 

[190]

My point is that electric vehicles are inherently cheaper to make than ICE powered cars.

Take the Dacia Spring. £16k RRP. Remove the cost of the battery, and it's cheaper than a Diesel Dacia

That price comparison is between an EV made in China and the diesel made in Europe. If they were both made in Europe I doubt the EV would be cheaper.

That's not to say that EV's made in Europe won't one day be cheaper than an equivalent IC but that day isn't yet.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

I am not one to jump on the climate bandwagon. A point I have repeatedly made is that no form of personal mobility can ever be environmentally friendly, if it involves that manufacturing of a heavy metal box, and then accelerating and declaring it - the former is a dirty industry whichever way you look at it, and the latter requires massive amounts of energy that will need to be produced somehow - yet another dirty industry.

I endorse EVs due to two clear benefits: (a) removal of harmful exhaust emissions from urban areas, which is where most people live and work, and (b) the ability to easily and seamlessly change the energy production method, e.g. from burning carbon fuels to nuclear or wind/solar/hydro.

But as far as the environment is concerned... efficient and affordable public transport is currently the solution with the least environmental impact per capita. No form of personal mobility will ever be green. It does not mean that we should ban use private cars altogether, just we need to have less of them, and drive them less.

For sure.

My point was that the EV transition is solely driven by climate science.

One can blame the politicians, but they are only responding to science.

Politicians are not forcing through the EV transition for fun, nor to reduce emissions on the South Circular through Lewisham.

If Politicians honestly wanted to eliminate emissions in City centres or on badly planned traffic hotspots, they would simply make those areas ultra low or zero emission. They don't. Heck, they could even move people with poor health away from high emission hotspots. They don't. Because politicians don't care about the health of people living near Putney High Street, the Marylebone Road, or the South Circular through Lewisham.

 

[markjay]

That price comparison is between an EV made in China and the diesel made in Europe. If they were both made in Europe I doubt the EV would be cheaper.

That's not to say that EV's made in Europe won't one day be cheaper than an equivalent IC but that day isn't yet.

That's good news. It demonstrates that EVs can be made cheaper if they are manufactured in China.

It means that once European carmakers will give up the dream of competing with the Chinese and will succumb to the reality that manufacturing should move to China - just like laptops from IBM (Lenovo), HP, Apple etc etc - we'll finally have cheap EVs.

 

[Bellow]

I endorse EVs due to two clear benefits: (a) the complete removal of harmful exhaust emissions from urban areas, which is where most people live and work, and (b) the ability to easily and seamlessly change the energy production method in future, e.g. from burning carbon fuels to nuclear or wind/solar/hydro.

''Seamless'' isn't the word that springs to my mind when viewing the commissioning of a new nuclear power station or hydro project.

 

[Bellow]

That's good news. It demonstrates that EVs can be made cheaper if they are manufactured in China.

It means that once European carmakers will give up the dream of competing with the Chinese and will succumb to the reality that manufacturing should move to China - just like laptops from IBM (Lenovo), HP, Apple etc etc - we'll finally have cheap EVs.

Cheap enough for the unemployed who hitherto had a job in western car manufacturing to afford?
Mass unemployment and the inevitable social tensions but hey, the city air is a sniff cleaner than it was.

 

[markjay]

''Seamless'' isn't the word that springs to my mind when viewing the commissioning of a new nuclear power station or hydro project.

What I meant is that it is seamless from the consumer's perspective.

This is in stark contrast to the transition to unleaded fuel, then to Diesel, and now to EV - which takes decades, while inconveniencing people, and causing much friction.

Or - using gas boilers instead of burning wood. etc.

Once everything is electric - i.e. not just cars - consumers do not need to go through the upheaval of changing cars or boilers or what-have-you.

The energy production method will be managed by the energy producers, completely seamless to the consumer.

I mean, just look at the mess with trying to restrict older Diesel cars from accessing urban areas - giving birth to thousands of web pages and even criminal damage - all this for just one relatively minor change. Who needs this? If we all had electric cars, we wouldn't care how the energy companies generate their electricity, let alone if they change the production method from coal to gas or to nuclear or to whatever.

Is this not a clear benefit?

 

[Bellow]

What I meant is that it is seamless from the consumer's perspective.

This is in stark contrast to the transition to unleaded fuel, then to Diesel, and now to EV - which takes decades, while inconveniencing people, and causing much friction.

Or - using gas boilers instead of burning wood. etc.

Once everything is electric - i.e. not just cars - consumers do not need to go through the upheaval of changing cars or boilers or what-have-you.

The energy production method will be managed by the energy producers, completely seamless to the consumer.

I mean, just look at the mess with trying to restrict older Diesel cars from accessing urban areas - giving birth to thousands of web pages and even criminal damage - all this for just one relatively minor change. Who needs this? If we all had electric cars, we wouldn't care how the energy companies generate their electricity, let alone if they change the production method from coal to gas or to nuclear or to whatever.

Is this not a clear benefit?

Dream on.
The public are already paying for the transition to electrification - and noticing it. They're already noticing the need for large banks of buffering batteries and objecting to them being placed in their locale. As they did with onshore wind turbines in England which resulted in them being banned. If this is seamlessness then I'm the Chinaman you are gifting your car industry to.

 

[Bobby Dazzler]

Everything is less expensive if made in China or the far east - whether it’s components or the finished article - and we just don’t notice that it’s cheaper.

With many products there either isn’t a 100% UK made option, or if there is then it’s seen to be a luxury purchase and not a mainstream choice.

If we want inexpensive EVs then they will come from the far East. If we want EVs to be 100% UK (or EU) made then we need to dig very very deep.

EVs are said to be too expensive, apart from when they’re Chinese made in which case they become not British. Where does the “but” cycle end?

Yesterday we went to Stoke to buy UK made crockery, and there really isn’t very much - the British names mostly manufacture abroad.

The last place we went to was Wedgwood, surely they would have plenty of crockery still made in their factory near Stoke in the UK.

A tiny minority of their lines are made in the UK and they’re very very expensive. Their lines made in Indonesia are very expensive too.

People choose to buy less expensive items made abroad, which forces UK manufacturers to do the same to compete at first, and later survive.

Making them to the same standards is expensive though, meaning that those businesses either push their products up market or go bust.

 

[markjay]

Dream on.
The public are already paying for the transition to electrification - and noticing it. They're already noticing the need for large banks of buffering batteries and objecting to them being placed in their locale. As they did with onshore wind turbines in England which resulted in them being banned. If this is seamlessness then I'm the Chinaman you are gifting your car industry to.

Yes - but it's a one-off. The move to electrification will be the last change they’ll have to make in a very long time, and that's the beauty of it.

Advocating a never-ending series of changes when we migrate from one technology to another, over a one-off change that will eliminate the need for frequent future changes, is to my mind irrational.

 

[markjay]

Everything is less expensive if made in China or the far east - whether it’s components or the finished article - and we just don’t notice that it’s cheaper.

With many products there either isn’t a 100% UK made option, or if there is then it’s seen to be a luxury purchase and not a mainstream choice.

If we want inexpensive EVs then they will come from the far East. If we want EVs to be 100% UK (or EU) made then we need to dig very very deep.

EVs are said to be too expensive, apart from when they’re Chinese made in which case they become not British. Where does the “but” cycle end?

Yesterday we went to Stoke to buy UK made crockery, and there really isn’t very much - the British names mostly manufacture abroad.

The last place we went to was Wedgwood, surely they would have plenty of crockery still made in their factory near Stoke in the UK.

A tiny minority of their lines are made in the UK and they’re very very expensive. Their lines made in Indonesia are very expensive too.

People choose to buy less expensive items made abroad, which forces UK manufacturers to do the same to compete at first, and later survive.

Making them to the same standards is expensive though, meaning that those businesses either push their products up market or go bust.

I believe that the reason that your very logical arguments won't penetrate the surface is that the whole EV debate is highly emotive and often illogical.

 

[Bellow]

Yes - but it's a one-off. The move to electrification will be the last change they’ll have to make in a very long time, and that's the beauty of it.

Really? An I-phone is for life is it?
Nope, the reality is that people change/replace/upgrade the product routinely - driven -at least to some extent - by the desire for change. There were little objections in switching from petrol to diesel when the initial consequence was cheaper motoring.

Advocating a never-ending series of changes when we migrate from one technology to another, over a one-off change that will eliminate the need for frequent future changes, is to my mind irrational.

That;s fine if the big change arrives affordably, timely, and with no negative consequences. Given that that is still some way off, prudence says we should keep other options open. My approach is pragmatic. Yours looks increasingly dogmatic.