The EV fact thread

[ALFAitalia]

There are indeed very many factors that determine the value of second hand EVs.

However, the issue is that [some of those in] the anti-EV camp simply see EV depreciation as 'proof' that "people don't want electric vehicles" and that the government is forcing the car buying public to do things that they don't want to do. Which has some element of truth for some people, but it's certainly not the factual description of the situation.

The other issue is that there's an erroneous assumption that second hand car values are determined solely by desirability.

I pointed out before, that company cars coming off their business leases flood the second hand car market and drive down the value for these models. This has always been the case.

Check which models are the fleet buyers' favourites this year, and I guarantee you that they will be among the most heavily deprecated cars in 2-3 years time. That's just supply-and-demand.

I hear you....but there is no getting away from the fact that the top ten worst depreciating cars in the UK at the moment are all EVs.....and its not just because of ex fleet cars.....it's because, as most in the trade know, they are an extremely difficult sell as used cars unless they are very cheap.

 

[ALFAitalia]

Try countering with facts then.

What would be the point of that.....people who are anti EV are anti EV.....no amount of facts seem to change that. The previous nearly 1000 posts (and the dozens of other threads) largely prove that.

 

[Bellow]

What would be the point of that.....

Debate - but you don't have the facts so swerve instead.

people who are anti EV are anti EV.....no amount of facts seem to change that.

Not me. I'm not anti-EV. I am anti that-that-will-not-work though.
Eg, if your constant assertion that the grid can cope is correct, why are wind turbines turned off on windy days when the connection between generating Scotland and consuming England cannot cope?

The previous nearly 1000 posts (and the dozens of other threads) largely prove that.

Proves nothing. Reservations expressed - of which the valid ones are ignored by the EVangalists as though though everyone's reality is as there's. I knew lithium was used to treat depression but I didn't know EV owners could could get high on their own supply. Clearly they can.

 

[Deleted member 55947]

I would say probably more anti-EV than pro-EV. That's just how it is, not just on here though, other forum's aswell. Shame really.

I wouldn’t say anti EV more like they don’t tick enough boxes for people to buy one at the moment

 

[SmartAmg]

I wouldn’t say anti EV more like they don’t tick enough boxes for people to buy one at the moment

Fair comment.

 

[markjay]

I hear you....but there is no getting away from the fact that the top ten worst depreciating cars in the UK at the moment are all EVs.....and its not just because of ex fleet cars.....it's because, as most in the trade know, they are an extremely difficult sell as used cars unless they are very cheap.

I think it's a mixture of both.

Which cars were mostly bought on business leases in 2020 and 2021.......?

So most likely it's the second-hand market being flooded with EVs coming off their business leases AND the fact that second-hand car buyers avoid EVs unless they are very cheap.

 

[Dryce]

So most likely it's the second-hand market being flooded with EVs coming off their business leases AND the fact that second-hand car buyers avoid EVs unless they are very cheap.

There would then also be the question of owners coming off leases - are they buying/leasing replacement new EVs?

(I would assume that company car buyers should be in a position where the tax benefits make the EV a very logical purchase - so as these cars come off lease then presumably they are likely to be replaced with new EVs).

 

[markjay]

There would then also be the question of owners coming off leases - are they buying/leasing replacement new EVs?

(I would assume that company car buyers should be in a position where the tax benefits make the EV a very logical purchase - so as these cars come off lease then presumably they are likely to be replaced with new EVs).

Business users on a salary sacrifice scheme will typically start a new lease on a new vehicle as soon as the old lease expires and the car goes back to the dealer, unless obviously there's a change in their circumstances. The new vehicle will be whatever is tax-efficient at the time - and at current it is still EVs.

The dealer will typically cherry-pick from the cars being returned a few good examples to go on their forecourt, but the bulk of the cars will go to an auction house and will typically end-up being sold to consumers by traders all around the UK.

 

[grober]

I have yet to see any new model [ ICE or EV] from any car manufacturer- which starts their marketing launch campaign with the strapline* BUY OUR NEW Mark 4 ******** --- its predicted to have excellent secondhand values!

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

When all of the electricity they use in both production and use is renewably generated they will be. Until then they are merely competing and not winning over ICE.

Or realise that on wind-free days wind turbines don't generate and that solar can be patchy and don't feel inclined to shell out on a solution no better in green terms that ICE (on days where renewably generated electricity is scarce, recharging an EV is wholly worse than ICE. Will EV drivers refrain from recharging on such days?). That, and other drawbacks mainly related to recharging - which may be a figment of imagination for some but for others are insurmountable obstacles. There are good reasons why a person may not want an EV and it isn't necessarily the case that the person is wrong in their conclusion. No amount of persuasion will change that. The EV, its green-ness of sourced electricity for recharging, and the recharging infrastructure has to adapt to user's demands.

We've got 35 million ICE vehicles to be replaced.

Some think we can't replace them this year, because electricity isn't renewably generated yet.

Others think it will take decades to replace all 35 million, by which time, more electricity WILL be generated without fossil fuel.

Taking a global view, the 1.5 billion in China want cars. They currently run 0.4 billion Do "we" want the car industry to build them a billion ICE cars? Or would it make sense for them to be in EV's? Do "we" want them to only drive Chinese EV copies of European cars? Or do we want British firms to sell EV's to the Chinese?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Business users on a salary sacrifice scheme will typically start a new lease on a new vehicle as soon as the old lease expires and the car goes back to the dealer, unless obviously there's a change in their circumstances. The new vehicle will be whatever is tax-efficient at the time - and at current it is still EVs.
The dealer will typically cherry-pick from the cars being returned a few good examples to go on their forecourt, but the bulk of the cars will go to an auction house and will typically end-up being sold to consumers by traders all around the UK.

Is that a convoluted way of saying ALL cars coming off lease end up in the hands of consumers?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

...and society in general....Even non car people seem to be able to find rather more reasons for not buying an EV than for buying one.

To be fair, that's mainly because most EV's are still expensive rubbish compared to their ICE equivalent.

What was that number from McKinsey about EV's averaging a 37% premium on ICE when new?

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

We quite frequently do long/fast 'off peak' motorway runs, which are not (yet) a good use case for EVs. For example we left home at 04:00 on Sunday morning to drive 180 miles to the ExCeL centre in Docklands (M54/M6/M1/M25/M11), and got home again at 23:30. A long and tiring day, and the last thing either us would have wanted would have been to extend that further by making multiple charging stops along the way (there was no charging available at our destination). Motorway range simply isn't an issue with our petrol estate car, which costs under 16p a mile on fuel and is ULEZ compliant.

Yawn. Once again, give us an idea of how long you "think" the charging stops would be for such a journey?

And how much of a cost saving do you not realise that you've giving up over those 360 miles?

There are many good reasons for not buying a Tesla for your journey. They're rubbish, but having to stop at a supercharger ONCE for 15 minutes to add 150 miles of range to the 300 that you had when you started off that morning really isn't a strong argument

 

[BTB 500]

Yawn. Once again, give us an idea of how long you "think" the charging stops would be for such a journey?

And how much of a cost saving do you not realise that you've giving up over those 360 miles?

There are many good reasons for not buying a Tesla for your journey. They're rubbish, but having to stop at a supercharger ONCE for 15 minutes to add 150 miles of range to the 300 that you had when you started off that morning really isn't a strong argument

Do Tesla make an estate car that will fit a dog cage in the boot? If so what's the real-world range at a constant mid-70s mph on a winter night with aircon etc. on? And how much would I have to pay for such a car to improve on 15-16p per mile fuel costs?

 

[markjay]

Is that a convoluted way of saying ALL cars coming off lease end up in the hands of consumers?

Where else would they go? They're not old enough to scrap.

 

[markjay]

We've got 35 million ICE vehicles to be replaced.

Some think we can't replace them this year, because electricity isn't renewably generated yet.

Others think it will take decades to replace all 35 million, by which time, more electricity WILL be generated without fossil fuel.

Taking a global view, the 1.5 billion in China want cars. They currently run 0.4 billion Do "we" want the car industry to build them a billion ICE cars? Or would it make sense for them to be in EV's? Do "we" want them to only drive Chinese EV copies of European cars? Or do we want British firms to sell EV's to the Chinese?

For the Chinese manufacturers, it makes sense to jump right into EV for the domestic market. The Chinese aren't that good with the complex metalwork required for building engines and transmissions, but they are brilliant at making electric and electronic stuff. The domestic market will not need to comply with Western safety standards and there are less expectations in terms of creature comforts meaning that Chinese EVs made for the domestic market can be lightweight and cheap.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Do Tesla make an estate car that will fit a dog cage in the boot? If so what's the real-world range at a constant mid-70s mph on a winter night with aircon etc. on? And how much would I have to pay for such a car to improve on 15-16p per mile fuel costs?

As I said, Tesla are rubbish and shouldn't be bought for that reason.

Estate EV's do exist, if you think something like an Ioniq 5 is big enough. (It's the size of many an estate)

Object to EV's because they're not made in the size you want yet. but not because they're electrically powered.

There are EV's around with a 250 mile range in Winter. See the way they're used in Norway which is far colder than your neck of the woods.

Rates vary, as do mileage per KwH, but home charging will save you 80% of your current fuel spend. But - you will need to pay higher rates for the ... small ... amount of electricity that you put into the car when you've used the 250 miles of range that you start with each day.

It's worth thinking it through. Do you really only drive on winter nights? Is every journey 360 miles? Only you can work that out.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

Where else would they go? They're not old enough to scrap.

Precisely. I couldn't understand your emphasis on:

"The dealer will typically cherry-pick from the cars being returned a few good examples to go on their forecourt, but the bulk of the cars will go to an auction house and will typically end-up being sold to consumers by traders all around the UK."

 

[markjay]

Precisely. I couldn't understand your emphasis on:

"The dealer will typically cherry-pick from the cars being returned a few good examples to go on their forecourt, but the bulk of the cars will go to an auction house and will typically end-up being sold to consumers by traders all around the UK."

I meant to say that only the best examples will be sold by the franchised dealer, and at a premium price - there are simply too many cars coming off lease for the dealers to try and sell all of them. The rest of the cars will be auctioned off and bought by traders to be sold through smaller independent used car dealerships - and this is how you get a market flooded by cheap cars (for those models that were initially supplied in large numbers to business users).

EDIT - and we mustn't forget that one reason why finance providers can afford to flog off ex-lease car via auctions is that they never paid the RRP in the first place - given their heavily discounted buying price, they'll make money on the car even if they dispose of it for cheap - and this is another reason why 'fleet favourites' appear to depreciate heavily when they hit the second hand car market.

 

[MikeInWimbledon]

For the Chinese manufacturers, it makes sense to jump right into EV for the domestic market. The Chinese aren't that good with the complex metalwork required for building engines and transmissions, but they are brilliant at making electric and electronic stuff. The domestic market will not need to comply with Western safety standards and there are less expectations in terms of creature comforts meaning that Chinese EVs made for the domestic market can be lightweight and cheap.

Exactly. So should the West ignore the fastest growing, most lucrative market in the world's biggest country, that could easily become the world's biggest economy within our lifetimes?

(In addition to the UN's ambition to reduce CO2 and pollution)