The UK Politics & Brexit Thread

[MercedesDriver]

You have to hear it to believe it.
This Caller Goes Head To Head With Brexit Party Candidate Over Trade - LBC
According to this businessman now consultant we will be better off on the day after no-deal Brexit because the Sterling will plummet and the British made cars will hence be cheaper. I just can't figure out how he managed to maintain his previous position for 5 years in BCC.
Good luck to us all.

 

[AltonAnt]

You have to hear it to believe it.
This Caller Goes Head To Head With Brexit Party Candidate Over Trade - LBC
According to this businessman now consultant we will be better off on the day after no-deal Brexit because the Sterling will plummet and the British made cars will hence be cheaper. I just can't figure out how he managed to maintain his previous position for 5 years in BCC.
Good luck to us all.

As a net importer, if the sterling rate goes down won't they cost us more? I don't know the figures but pretty sure the balance will not be in our favour by a large margin.

So what are our choices for buying 'british' built cars? Are all the parts made here? The UK is also looking less attractive a place to build cars so I can't see that argument having much future proofing.
I really can't believe someone has the front the justify that tbh. Total imbecile that 'businessman'.

 

[MercedesDriver]

As a net importer, if the sterling rate goes down won't they cost us more? I don't know the figures but pretty sure the balance will not be in our favour by a large margin.

So what are our choices for buying 'british' built cars? Are all the parts made here? The UK is also looking less attractive a place to build cars so I can't see that argument having much future proofing.
I really can't believe someone has the front the justify that tbh. Total imbecile that 'businessman'.

Believe it, he and such alike will probably represent us in EU parliament. We are living in Monty Python world these days/months/years

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[Dryce]

As a net importer, if the sterling rate goes down won't they cost us more? I don't know the figures but pretty sure the balance will not be in our favour by a large margin.

So what are our choices for buying 'british' built cars? Are all the parts made here? The UK is also looking less attractive a place to build cars so I can't see that argument having much future proofing.

If we're a net importer of some good or service and the price of the import goes up then we tend to adapt and the economy tends to adapt. It may end up more stuff is bought locally.

So suppose importerd MBs become expensive - what's the outcome? Well who knows - but the simplistic variations are:

• We still buy as many MBs - so more money in the local economy gets spent on MBs and less gets spent on other stuff or less is saved. Good for germany - bad for Britain.
• We don't buy as many MBs - but we spend about the same as before. So same gets spent on other stuff or saved. Bad for germany - neutral for UK.
• We buy a lot fewr MBs and spend less on them. So more gets spent on oher stuff or saved. Bad for Germany - better for UK.

The point here is that imported cars going up in price isn't necessarily a bad thing. It could be ..... a good thing.

If Sterling goes down then there are a number of uncomfortable things that can be felt - imported goods go up possibly - but the international cost of UK labour drops. Good for jobs and investment. But what it also means is that in terms of international spending power with the earnings from those jobs (air tickets, imported cars etc etc) doesn't go so far.

The classic example is foreign holiday prices going up because of currency. More people holilday in the UK. Is that good or bad. Well bad if you want to take a foreign holiday. Maybe not fun if local prices go higher with increased demand. But great for the UK tourist industry and the people working in it.

I really can't believe someone has the front the justify that tbh. Total imbecile that 'businessman'.

Maybe not quite the total imbecile. Maybe you need to be a bit less incredulous as well.

The dice don't just roll one way on this whole thing.

 

[AltonAnt]

Maybe not quite the total imbecile. Maybe you need to be a bit less incredulous as well.

No he really is.
I’ll only be buying British bananas from now on.

 

[Dryce]

I’ll only be buying British bananas from now on.

With climate change you may well be in with a chance on that one regardless of where the relationship between the UK and EU eventually gets to.

 

[Deleted member 6183]

No he really is.
I’ll only be buying British bananas from now on.

Straight or bent?

 

[grober]

Discussing the economic future of the UK in terms the future price of a BMW/Audi/Mercedes seems a popular economic metaphor with "WTO" the acronym of choice. In light of the fact the bulk of the Nations GDP and foreign currency earning is not derived from selling our manufactured goods but selling financial and other services such as aviation monitoring and maintenance it would be nice to hear a bit more about how a no-deal exit from the EU might effect this vital aspect of the economy. Perhaps the discussion should be focussing on GATS [General Agreement on Trade in Services] rather than GATT [General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade] post brexit?
[ WTO option in practice: how a no-deal Brexit would seriously damage key UK industries

 

[Yugguy]

May has just spoken.

"MPs will get a vote on whether to hold another referendum if they back the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill, she said."

Are there enough pro-referendum MPs to make it happen?

 

[Yugguy]

With climate change you may well be in with a chance on that one regardless of where the relationship between the UK and EU eventually gets to.

Well indeed.

Climate change means we'll lose the South East and be able to plant vineyards in the Midlands.

I'm not seeing an issue.

 

[st13phil]

...it would be nice to hear a bit more about how a no-deal exit from the EU might effect this vital aspect of the economy.

Back in March I posted a link in this thread to a relevant analysis carried out by Gabriel Felbermayr for the German IFO Institut here.

 

[219]

If we're a net importer of some good or service and the price of the import goes up then we tend to adapt and the economy tends to adapt. It may end up more stuff is bought locally.

So suppose importerd MBs become expensive - what's the outcome? Well who knows - but the simplistic variations are:

• We still buy as many MBs - so more money in the local economy gets spent on MBs and less gets spent on other stuff or less is saved. Good for germany - bad for Britain.
• We don't buy as many MBs - but we spend about the same as before. So same gets spent on other stuff or saved. Bad for germany - neutral for UK.
• We buy a lot fewr MBs and spend less on them. So more gets spent on oher stuff or saved. Bad for Germany - better for UK.

The point here is that imported cars going up in price isn't necessarily a bad thing. It could be ..... a good thing.

If Sterling goes down then there are a number of uncomfortable things that can be felt - imported goods go up possibly - but the international cost of UK labour drops. Good for jobs and investment. But what it also means is that in terms of international spending power with the earnings from those jobs (air tickets, imported cars etc etc) doesn't go so far.

The classic example is foreign holiday prices going up because of currency. More people holilday in the UK. Is that good or bad. Well bad if you want to take a foreign holiday. Maybe not fun if local prices go higher with increased demand. But great for the UK tourist industry and the people working in it.



Maybe not quite the total imbecile. Maybe you need to be a bit less incredulous as well.

The dice don't just roll one way on this whole thing.

Another positive take on it is that if the prices of new MB’s increase , it can’t hurt the values of used ones ( which many of us might wish to sell at some point ) .

 

[219]

No he really is.
I’ll only be buying British bananas from now on.

There are some products in which we lead the world : Scotch Whisky , British Hi-Fi , Brands like Rolls-Royce , Bentley, Aston Martin , although foreign owned presumably will do well for us .

There must be many British made products that will become more attractive exports .

The flip side is exporting within EU may already be advantageous, so may only be exports to rest of world which might benefit and question is whether currency fluctuations will outweigh trade deals ...

 

[219]

May has just spoken.

"MPs will get a vote on whether to hold another referendum if they back the EU Withdrawal Agreement Bill, she said."

Are there enough pro-referendum MPs to make it happen?

More to the point , the electorate have just spoken , but we will have to wait till Sunday to hear what they said .

Reading between lines , I suspect that Brexit Party will do well south of border , and SNP/Greens will do well up here ; repeating the previous result of Leave down south and Remain up here , which will fuel wee Niki’s call for Indyref 2 and with both majority parties ( Green/SNP ) here supporting it .

Meantime , TM has her meeting later today with the 1922 Comittee , and the 6 o’clock news ought to be interesting...

 

[Bellow]

May leaves Downing St 07/06/19. The Tory shitshow continues....

 

[MercedesDriver]

And we can expect to see Tories in opposition for a decade after forthcoming elections.

 

[grober]

Theresa May to resign as prime minister

To step down as leader on the 7th of June but remain as Prime Minister till her successor is chosen

 

[AltonAnt]

I'm really looking forward to seeing what one of the PMs harsh critics who takes over is able to do any differently.

My guess is f'all.

 

[Dryce]

May leaves Downing St 07/06/19. The Tory shitshow continues....

I think looking back the writing was on the wall for Ms May in the summer of 2016. She ended up being the PM by default. Her party has to look at itself and figure that it can't see that it as a group is culpable then it can't fix itself. If her pathetic colleagues had stood up and been counted either (a) she wouldn't have been PM or (b) she would have been more effectively supported.

The term annihalated has been used in expectation of the results of the EU election when the results are finally declared.

Well if that's the case then it will demonstrate a new physical process within the universe - that it is possible to annihalate a vacuum.

 

[GeeJayW]

So the end of May has been pushed back into early June....